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Oil Demand

Oil Demand Growth Slowing at 'Remarkable' Pace

  World oil demand growth is softening at a remarkable pace as the European and Chinese economies falter, the West's energy watchdog said on Thursday, while supplies grow steadily, particularly from North America. "The recent slowdown in demand growth is nothing short of remarkable," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, revising down its oil demand growth projections for both 2014 and 2015. "While festering conflicts in Iraq and Libya show no sign of abating, their effect on global oil market balances and prices remains muted amid weakening oil demand growth and plentiful supply," it added. The IEA said demand growth in the second quarter of 2014 alone eased back to a near two-and-a-half year low. For the whole of 2014, the IEA reduced its oil demand growth projection by 65,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 900,000 bpd while for 2015 it cut its estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd. "Euro zone economies, already struggling with stagnation, are getting perilously close to deflation. The risk being that falling European prices trigger a deflationary spiral that causes further reductions in economic activity, as market participants delay investment/purchasing decisions," it said. China, the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States, is unlikely to see oil demand grow by much more than 2 percent, the IEA said.

Unchanged Estimate of 2001 Oil Demand Growth - IEA

The IEA in their Oil Market Report for December 2001 did not alter their previous estimate of only a marginal increase in oil demand in 2001 over 2000, a 0.14 mbd increase only. During November 2001 world oil production increased by 0.29 mbd compared to the previous month. OPEC oil production decreased whereas non-OPEC oil production increased by a total of 0.63 mbd. Total industry oil stocks in the OECD area grew by 0.22 mbd in October 2001

Oil Demand Flat, Diesel Demand Up

According to the February 12, 2001 monthly IEA Oil Market report, the 12-month moving average for December 2000 of oil products demand for the nine largest markets indicates a 0.1% decline. The only products showing an increased demand are LPG/Naphtha, Jet/Kerosene and Diesel, of which diesel has the largest increase of 3.5%. In contrast the demand for gasoline is down by 0.8%. The increase in diesel demand is strongest in the U.S., Mexico, Korea, Germany and Italy.

Deepwater Downturn: Bump in the Road or Long-term Slowdown?

(Image: iStock)

IMA/World Energy Reports has just completed a comprehensive assessment of the five year outlook for the deepwater sector. The new report – the 19th annual floater market forecast prepared by IMA since 1996 – provides our forecast of orders for floating production systems between 2016 and 2020. Here’s an overview of the findings and conclusions in the report.   Bottom Line  We see the downturn in market conditions and implosion of Petrobras as a bump in the road

IEA Paints Lukewarm Outlook for Crude Oil Tankers

Map: Poten & Partners

 Every year around this time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes their Medium Term Oil Market Report. The report includes the customary oil supply and demand forecasts and refinery dynamics.    "Most interesting for us in the tanker industry is their detailed discussion of the crude oil trade flows. What does the latest IEA outlook have in stock for the tanker market?" asks, Tanker Research & Consulting department at Poten & Partners.  

Oil Price Bottoming Depends on Global Growth - IEA chief

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may have bottomed but that would depend on global economic growth. Asked if oil prices had reached a bottom, Birol told Reuters: "It may well be the case, but it depends on economic growth." He expected global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day this year while non-OPEC oil production would fall by more than 700,000 bpd.

IEA Releases New Publication

“There is an urgent need to consider ways to accelerate the decoupling of energy and CO2 emissions from economic growth,” said Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the launch in Brussels of Oil Crises and Climate Challenges: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries. This new publication examines how energy efficiency and factors such as economic structure, income, lifestyle, climate

China Aug Power Output Falls First Time in 4 yrs

Chinas Output fell first in four years

  China's power output, a bellwether for economic activity, posted its first annual decline in more than four years in August, adding to evidence that the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum after a brief rebound in the second quarter. Power output in the world's top consumer fell 2.2 percent to 495.9 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in August from a year earlier, data showed on Saturday. While the annual fall was in part due to the high reading last summer

EIA Expects OPEC Output To Rise

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects OPEC countries to continue producing above their quotas, pushing the cartel's average output 770,000 barrels per day (bpd) above official levels for the quarter. OPEC's actual production would also be just 619,000 bpd lower during the first quarter from output levels at the end of last year, the agency said in its monthly OPEC update. That would be much less than the 1

NAT CEO: Low Oil Prices Benefit the Tanker Market

Herbjørn Hansson (Photo courtesy of NAT)

Nordic American Tankers Limited Chairman & CEO Herbjørn Hansson addressed the impacts of low oil prices on the tanker business in a letter to shareholders, citing the decrease in oil price as an overall positive for the world tanker market and possible trigger for the recent rate upswing for Suexmax tankers. “The upswing in Suezmax tanker rates in the recent past may have to some extent to do with the decrease in the oil price,” Hansson said

Trafigura Backs Out of Tanker Foray

Trafigura has sold five oil vessels to a unit of China's Bank of Communications , ending the trading house's move into owning tankers, the company said on Friday. Under the deal, the five medium-range tankers, ordered by Trafigura in 2013 from a shipyard in China

Tanker Market: Electrifying Demand

Graphic: Gibson tanker report

 Twenty years, the investment timeline to consider when ordering a new tanker, is a long time in any industry, not least in the rapidly evolving energy markets and the drive for cleaner fuels, says Gibson tanker report.   Whilst, the collapse in oil prices in recent years may have

Tanker Sale & Purchase Update

Tanker. Pic: TTS Group ASA

 For now, the Sale & Purchase (S&P)  market is pretty dead (because the charter markets are also slightly lifeless). S&P transactions for tankers have almost halved so far this year (Jan 1-Sept 2), reports  Alibra Shipping Ltd. Research.  

Tanker Outlook Dented by Middle East Refineries

Refinery throughput growth by region (000 bpd) (Source: Drewry’s Tanker Forecaster report)

A steep rise in refinery capacity in the Middle East, the world’s crude oil production hub, will diminish oil trade growth and with it prospects for tanker shipping, according to the latest edition of the Tanker Forecaster, published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. 

Has the Link between OPEC Production and VLCC Rates broken?

Graph: Poten and Partners

 For the tanker market, in particular for VLCCs, increasing Middle East OPEC production is typically a good sign.    Poten and Partners in its Shipbrokers Reports says that does not appear to be the case at this particular moment

Asia Tankers-VLCC Rates Steady as Suezmax Fixtures Weigh

Charterers splitting VLCC cargoes into smaller Suezmax tankers; rates to remain around $24,000 per day, below break-even levels. Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on main routes to Asia are set to hold around current levels next week

Tanker Rates: Glass Half-Full Or Half-Empty?

Graph: Poten and Partners

 The tanker market has been suffering from rather severe summer doldrums, says Weekly Shipbrokers Reports published by Poten and Partners.   Earnings across all tanker sectors, from VLCCs down to MRs are at levels not seen since September 2014

Dark Cloud of Offshore Storage Looms

Glencore books the STI Grace tanker to store fuel at sea-traders. This has not been the summer many oil traders had expected after last year's bumper profits. Banking on more of the same, the world's refineries have churned out more diesel

Slippery Orders in Ship Building

Graph: Poten and Partners

 The situation of the shipyards in the world and in particular the struggles of the Korean shipbuilding industry has received a fair amount of attention in the shipping press, as well as in more general news outlets. Poten and Partners discusses about the outlook for vessel deliveries in the

Oil Glut Still a Major Dampener on Prices -IEA

The global glut in oil is refusing to ease and acts as a major dampener on crude prices despite robust demand growth and steep declines in non-OPEC production, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday.   The IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrial nations

BIMCO - Oil Product Tankers Earnings Decline as stockbuilding Slows Down

Oil Product Tanker Earnings

BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is still money to be made in the second half of 2016. The oil product tanker market has reached a net fleet growth of 4.3m DWT so far in 2016


Graph: Gibson Shipbrokers

 Earlier this week spot returns in the VLCC market touched their lowest level since October 2014, with TCE earnings for Middle East/Japan (TD3) falling close to $20,000/day, says Gibson Weekly Tanker Market Report.   The current weakness has been essentially driven by the build-up of

Onshore Shale: Worth Keeping In The Shipping Spotlight

Graph: Clarksons Research

 Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and freight rates performing.    But occasionally it can be worth pointing the telescope in the other direction

The Latest Oil Bet: From Too Much to Too Little

Oil investors are finally buying into the notion that the biggest risk to the price now is likely to be supply falling short of demand, rather than from any stubborn overhang of unwanted crude, the options market shows.   The price of Brent crude has hit $52 a barrel

BW LPG Registers 10% Growth in VLGC Fleet

Photo: BW LPG Limited

 Less domestic petrochemical consumption of LPG would be positive for VLGC shipping as it would result in a greater surplus of LPG available for export.    However, it is still unclear whether this dedicated-feedstock ethylene (five new ethylene plants

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