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Oil Demand

Oil Demand Growth Slowing at 'Remarkable' Pace

  World oil demand growth is softening at a remarkable pace as the European and Chinese economies falter, the West's energy watchdog said on Thursday, while supplies grow steadily, particularly from North America. "The recent slowdown in demand growth is nothing short of remarkable," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, revising down its oil demand growth projections for both 2014 and 2015. "While festering conflicts in Iraq and Libya show no sign of abating, their effect on global oil market balances and prices remains muted amid weakening oil demand growth and plentiful supply," it added. The IEA said demand growth in the second quarter of 2014 alone eased back to a near two-and-a-half year low. For the whole of 2014, the IEA reduced its oil demand growth projection by 65,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 900,000 bpd while for 2015 it cut its estimate by 100,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd. "Euro zone economies, already struggling with stagnation, are getting perilously close to deflation. The risk being that falling European prices trigger a deflationary spiral that causes further reductions in economic activity, as market participants delay investment/purchasing decisions," it said. China, the world's second largest oil consumer after the United States, is unlikely to see oil demand grow by much more than 2 percent, the IEA said.


Unchanged Estimate of 2001 Oil Demand Growth - IEA

The IEA in their Oil Market Report for December 2001 did not alter their previous estimate of only a marginal increase in oil demand in 2001 over 2000, a 0.14 mbd increase only. During November 2001 world oil production increased by 0.29 mbd compared to the previous month. OPEC oil production decreased whereas non-OPEC oil production increased by a total of 0.63 mbd. Total industry oil stocks in the OECD area grew by 0.22 mbd in October 2001


Oil Demand Flat, Diesel Demand Up

According to the February 12, 2001 monthly IEA Oil Market report, the 12-month moving average for December 2000 of oil products demand for the nine largest markets indicates a 0.1% decline. The only products showing an increased demand are LPG/Naphtha, Jet/Kerosene and Diesel, of which diesel has the largest increase of 3.5%. In contrast the demand for gasoline is down by 0.8%. The increase in diesel demand is strongest in the U.S., Mexico, Korea, Germany and Italy.


Deepwater Downturn: Bump in the Road or Long-term Slowdown?

(Image: iStock)

IMA/World Energy Reports has just completed a comprehensive assessment of the five year outlook for the deepwater sector. The new report – the 19th annual floater market forecast prepared by IMA since 1996 – provides our forecast of orders for floating production systems between 2016 and 2020. Here’s an overview of the findings and conclusions in the report.   Bottom Line  We see the downturn in market conditions and implosion of Petrobras as a bump in the road


IEA Paints Lukewarm Outlook for Crude Oil Tankers

Map: Poten & Partners

 Every year around this time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes their Medium Term Oil Market Report. The report includes the customary oil supply and demand forecasts and refinery dynamics.    "Most interesting for us in the tanker industry is their detailed discussion of the crude oil trade flows. What does the latest IEA outlook have in stock for the tanker market?" asks, Tanker Research & Consulting department at Poten & Partners.  


Oil Price Bottoming Depends on Global Growth - IEA chief

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol

International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said on Sunday that oil prices may have bottomed but that would depend on global economic growth. Asked if oil prices had reached a bottom, Birol told Reuters: "It may well be the case, but it depends on economic growth." He expected global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million barrels per day this year while non-OPEC oil production would fall by more than 700,000 bpd.


IEA Releases New Publication

“There is an urgent need to consider ways to accelerate the decoupling of energy and CO2 emissions from economic growth,” said Claude Mandil, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the launch in Brussels of Oil Crises and Climate Challenges: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries. This new publication examines how energy efficiency and factors such as economic structure, income, lifestyle, climate


China Aug Power Output Falls First Time in 4 yrs

Chinas Output fell first in four years

  China's power output, a bellwether for economic activity, posted its first annual decline in more than four years in August, adding to evidence that the world's second-largest economy is losing momentum after a brief rebound in the second quarter. Power output in the world's top consumer fell 2.2 percent to 495.9 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in August from a year earlier, data showed on Saturday. While the annual fall was in part due to the high reading last summer


EIA Expects OPEC Output To Rise

The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects OPEC countries to continue producing above their quotas, pushing the cartel's average output 770,000 barrels per day (bpd) above official levels for the quarter. OPEC's actual production would also be just 619,000 bpd lower during the first quarter from output levels at the end of last year, the agency said in its monthly OPEC update. That would be much less than the 1


NAT CEO: Low Oil Prices Benefit the Tanker Market

Herbjørn Hansson (Photo courtesy of NAT)

Nordic American Tankers Limited Chairman & CEO Herbjørn Hansson addressed the impacts of low oil prices on the tanker business in a letter to shareholders, citing the decrease in oil price as an overall positive for the world tanker market and possible trigger for the recent rate upswing for Suexmax tankers. “The upswing in Suezmax tanker rates in the recent past may have to some extent to do with the decrease in the oil price,” Hansson said


BIMCO - Oil Product Tankers Earnings Decline as stockbuilding Slows Down

Oil Product Tanker Earnings

BIMCO’s expectations remain as the oil product tanker fleet continues to grow with earnings at the lowest since Q3 in 2014. But there is still money to be made in the second half of 2016. The oil product tanker market has reached a net fleet growth of 4.3m DWT so far in 2016


VL-exit?

Graph: Gibson Shipbrokers

 Earlier this week spot returns in the VLCC market touched their lowest level since October 2014, with TCE earnings for Middle East/Japan (TD3) falling close to $20,000/day, says Gibson Weekly Tanker Market Report.   The current weakness has been essentially driven by the build-up of


Onshore Shale: Worth Keeping In The Shipping Spotlight

Graph: Clarksons Research

 Generally, shipping industry watchers spend much of their time monitoring events out to sea: how fleets are evolving, trade volumes growing and freight rates performing.    But occasionally it can be worth pointing the telescope in the other direction


The Latest Oil Bet: From Too Much to Too Little

Oil investors are finally buying into the notion that the biggest risk to the price now is likely to be supply falling short of demand, rather than from any stubborn overhang of unwanted crude, the options market shows.   The price of Brent crude has hit $52 a barrel


BW LPG Registers 10% Growth in VLGC Fleet

Photo: BW LPG Limited

 Less domestic petrochemical consumption of LPG would be positive for VLGC shipping as it would result in a greater surplus of LPG available for export.    However, it is still unclear whether this dedicated-feedstock ethylene (five new ethylene plants


Tanker Shipping: Signs of Weakness are Appearing, But Still Money to be Made

Graph: BIMCO

Supported by slow fleet growth and ongoing positive refinery margins, VLCC earnings in Q1-2016 were up from a year ago, but down from Q4-2015 as we expected at $58,367 per day for VLCC (+5.7% year on year).  For the minor crude oil carriers, rates were down from Q1-2015 and Q4-2015


Shipping Industry Flying On The Dragon’s Back

Graph: Clarksons Research

 As the many Greek players in the shipping industry know well, the legend of Icarus tells us the dangers of flying too high. Merchant vessel earnings eventually found their 2008 heights just as unsustainable, even as some talked of a “new paradigm”.  


Oil Rally is Not Just About Hedge Funds: Kemp

Oil prices are becoming dangerously overheated as speculators anticipate a rebalancing of supply and demand that has barely started, according to many oil analysts.   "Even as oil rallies, analysts have barely nudged up their price forecasts as they worry that crude's recent gains


Asia Tankers-VLCCs Rates Ease as Tanker Jams Fade

file image: A VLCC transits the Suez Canal (Suez Canal Authority)

Port congestion eases at Basra and Chinese ports; tanker demand set to expand on lower oil prices. Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), hurt by slower-than-usual release of cargo, could slip further next week as more tonnage becomes available with the easing of recent tanker


Crude Prices Firm Ahead of US Data

U.S. payroll, jobs data may support oil prices; demand outlook improving. Crude oil futures edged up on Friday, building on the week's gains, as traders and analysts eyed U.S. jobs data which could give further momentum to rising prices.


Tankers Are Like A Box Of Chocolates

Source: Bloomberg / Poten & Partners

 The uncertainty around the direction of the tanker market has increased since the start of 2016. At current production levels, the markets for both crude oil and (certain) refined products seem oversupplied, which supports healthy spot rates for both crude oil and product tankers. 


EIA: Floating Storage Up, Shipping Routes Altered from Distillate Oversupply

(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)

According to a weekly update from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), an oversupply of European distillates is raising the amount of product being held in floating storage, and also causing changes to shipping routes to slow delivery to the continent.


Teekay Tankers Misses 4Q Profit forecasts

Teekay Tankers vessel in Port Said Egypt  Courtesy Teekay Tankers

Teekay Tankers Ltd. reported adjusted net income attributable to its shareholders of $48.5 million, or $0.31 per share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2015, compared to $18.6 million, or $0.21 per share, for the same period in the prior year.


McQuilling Releases 2016-20 Tanker Outlook

McQuilling Services has  announced the release of the 2016-2020 Tanker Market Outlook.    This report is a five-year outlook for eight vessel classes across 18 benchmark trades and represents the company’s 19th forecasting cycle


BIMCO: Tanker Market Stays Strong, Demand is High

The KOTC operated VLCC Al Kout. (Photo: DSME)

According to a recent BIMCO Shipping Market Analysis, the global tanker market remains a bright spot in the global shipping market, with demand staying high. Below is a synopsis of the report's latest findings.   More than anything else






 
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