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Oil Supply

Major Oil Price Rise Forecast

The world is drawing down its oil reserves at an unprecedented rate and even assuming no growth in demand it is likely that that by 2010 oil supply will be constrained by global production capacity and oil will permanently cease to be abundant. Supply and demand will be forced to balance - but at a price. Then, like during the oil shocks of the 1970’s, prices could double and treble within two or three years as the world changes from oil abundance to oil scarcity. The world is facing a future of major oil price increases which will occur sooner than many people believe. These are amongst the conclusions of The World Oil Supply Report, an important new study published today by energy analysts Douglas-Westwood. Oil production to peak soon The overall conclusion of the extensive research carried out for this report, into all potential sources of oil, is that the world’s known and estimated ‘yet to find’ reserves cannot satisfy even the present level of production of some 74 million barrels per day beyond 2022. Any growth in global economic activity only serves to increase demand and bring forward the peak year. 1% demand growth brings the year to 2016, when production is expected to peak at around 83 million barrels per day; with 2% growth, peak production of 87 million barrels per day occurs in 2011, and with 3% growth, peak production of 87 million barrels per day occurs in 2006.


OPEC's Indonesia Victim of Supply Cuts-Trade

OPEC member Indonesia has reportedly become a victim of the very oil supply cuts it helped to shape, as it has tendered to buy Saudi Arabian, Iranian and Iraqi crude because its normal supply has been cut under the latest OPEC accord to boost oil prices.


U.S. Federal Court Bars OPEC From Price Fixing

A U.S. federal court reportedly has granted a one-year injunction barring oil producer group OPEC from fixing prices. Prewitt Enterprises won a civil anti-trust case in an Alabama court, accusing the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) of conspiring to fix oil prices through oil supply agreements. OPEC is for the next year "restrained from entering any agreements among themselves or with third parties to raise, lower


Irene SL Release by Somali Pirates

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INTERTANKO is delighted that the Irene SL has been released by the Somali pirates who hijacked this tanker and her 2m barrel oil cargo in February, and that Master, officers and crew are in good health after 58 days in captivity – especially after 12 days being used as a pirate mothership. At the time INTERTANKO’s Managing Director Joe Angelo remarked that the Irene SL hijacking marked a significant shift in Somali piracy


Call on OPEC Oil Increasing Say IEA

International Energy Agency (IEA) reports call on 'OPEC crude & stock change' rising IEA reports that global oil supply increased by 0.6 mbd to 91.0 mbd in April, 3.9 mbd above last year. Higher Iraqi, Nigerian and Libyan supplies lifted OPEC production by 0.41 mbd, to 31.85 mbd. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is raised by 0.2 mbd to 30.9 mbd for 3Q12 and by 0.4 mbd to 30.7 mbd for 4Q12, with the 2012 average now 30.3 mbd.


Eni, Rosneft Sign Oil Supplies Agreement

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Rosneft’s President and Chairman of the Management Board, Igor Sechin, and Eni’s CEO, Paolo Scaroni, in the presence of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and Italy’s Prime Minister, Enrico Letta, has signed a term sheet on mutual crude oil supplies and a heads of agreement on joint participation and investments in logistic and commercial activities within the hydrocarbons sector. Rosneft will supply crude oil to PCK Schwedt refinery in Germany and Česká


Will Oil Continue Heading Up?

"Due to increasing demand and reducing reserves, oil prices currently at $40 are likely to soon enter a period of sustained rises resulting in a need to massively develop natural gas and renewable energy resources" according to John Westwood of energy analysts Douglas-Westwood. "Oil reserves are depleting and demand growing. Recent increases in oil demand from China, for example, are likely to accelerate. The average American consumes 25 times as much oil as the average Chinese yet China


Auramarine Ballast Water Treatment Systems

Photo courtesy Auramarine

Auramarine Ltd, manufacturer of heavy fuel oil supply systems and other auxiliary units for marine and power station engines, is now applying its wide-ranging experience in liquid flows to a new sector that benefits the environment. Auramarine is bringing out Auramarine Crystal Ballast, Ballast Water Treatment System (BWTS). Due to technological innovations featured in this system, it is energy-efficient, compact and easy to install


Shale Adds Up to Make US World's Largest Oil Supplier

U.S. is the world's largest producer of oil in 2013, according to data presented at PIRA Energy Group's recent Retainer Client Seminar held in New York City recently. The U.S. has surged to be the world's lead oil supplier because of growth in shale oil. Shale crude and condensate production at 2.5 MMB/D in 2013 is now slightly over one-third of total U.S. crude production, and shale NGL at 1.2 MMB/D is almost half of total Natural Gas Liquids (NGL's).


Tanker Shipping's Fortunes Rest on US Shale Oil Production

How much US shale oil production is taken out of service will be a key driver of future tanker shipping earnings, according to the latest edition of the Tanker Forecaster, published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. Tanker operators are pinning their hopes on a rise in US crude oil imports as domestic shale oil extraction becomes increasingly unprofitable. Low oil prices have made crude extraction unprofitable for many US producers


Euronav in $384m Deal for 4 VLCCs

Photo: Euronav

Euronav has entered into an agreement for the acquisition through resale of four VLCCs which are completing construction at Hyundai Heavy Industries for an aggregate purchase price of $384 million or $96 million per unit. The vessels are due to be delivered as early as September 2015, January


Oil Analysts, Experts Weigh In On Iran Nuclear Deal

Iran, the United States and five other major powers reached an agreement to restrain the Iranian nuclear program in exchange for relief from economic sanctions.   The following are answers to frequently asked questions about any nuclear deal and what follows, from analysts


Energy Outlook Lowers Crude Price Forecast

Brent and WTI Crude Oil Price

  The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released on August 11 forecasts that North Sea Brent crude oil prices will average $54 per barrel (b) in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, which is $6/b and $8/b lower than projected in last month’s STEO, respectively (Figure 1)


Can't Touch This: The Climate Case Against Arctic Drilling

Photo: White House

 A new report released today by Oil Change International and Greenpeace USA details a clear case against drilling for oil in the Arctic ocean based on climate science imperatives.    The report, “Untouchable: The Climate Case Against Arctic Drilling,” shows U.S


‘Business as Unusual’ for Oil in the Medium Term

Photo: IEA

IEA report sees a transformed market, with supply more responsive to prices than in the past – and demand less so   The recent crash in oil prices will cause the oil market to rebalance in ways that challenge traditional thinking about the responsiveness of supply and demand


Euronav Bullish on Tanker Market

Photo by Euronav

 A robust and sustained recovery in freight rates in both VLCC and Suezmax sectors gained traction during the fourth quarter of 2014 – a feature which has continued and expanded into Q1 2015, says press release from Euronav   


Tall Ship Docked for Repairs

Tall ship Stavros S Niarchos in for general maintenance and repairs

The largest brig to be built in the U.K. in a century sailed into in a Greenock dry dock yesterday for general maintenance and essential winter repairs.   The Stavros S Niarchos has arrived at the Garvel Clyde site, which is owned by Aberdeen-based Dales Marine Services


Russia's Seaborne Urals Exports Seen Down in April

Russia's Urals crude exports and transit from the Baltic Sea ports and Novorossiisk are set to fall in April by 2.5 percent on a daily basis to 8.14 million tonnes from 8.623 million tonnes in March, a preliminary loading plan showed on Tuesday.  


Amid Yemen Chaos, China Lifts More Oil

China has managed to export a large shipment of crude oil from Yemen over the weekend, ship-tracking data showed on Monday, despite mounting chaos in the country after the launch of Saudi-led air strikes last week. The 2 million barrel Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC), Tai Hung San


Suezmax Tanker Market on the Rise Yet Again

Graphs: Charles R. Weber Research

 Suezmax tankers are looking good for a strong 2015 year, before posting a mild downside during 2016, but are poised to accelerate yet again in 2017 on rising deliveries, said shipbroker Charles R. Weber in its latest weekly report (Ref. Weekly 18)   


Offshore Oil & Gas: Floating Production Market a Bright Spot

Safe stroll: crew aboard the Maersk Peregrino FPSO off Brazil (and above) Photo: Oeyvind Hagen Statoil

Despite industry gloom about the offshore market, orders for production floaters continue to flow.  Over the past few weeks a speculatively-ordered FLNG found use off Africa, negotiations began to convert a third LNG carrier to an FLNG, an FSRU was ordered and a modified LNG tanker has been


Offshore O&G: Weathering the Storm

Courtesy Fleet Operators

Vessels are stacked as Gulf oil operators retrench and day rates fall. In the Gulf of Mexico, vessels serving offshore oil-and-gas exploration and production are being stacked or idled as the rig count there declines. Oil companies are retrenching while crude prices remain weak


Frontline Beats Q1 Forecasts, Inks Ship Finance Deal

Crude oil tanker firm Frontline posted first-quarter operating profit above expectations on Friday and said it had renegotiated its relationship with chartering firm Ship Finance to strengthen its balance sheet. Once the world's biggest crude tanker firm


Oil Blast Sparks Off Major Fire in Mumbai Port Trust in Wadala

Image: Mumbai Port Trust

 A fire broke out due to a suspected leakage in an oil pipeline passing through a land owned by the Mumbai Port Trust (MbPT) in Wadala in central Mumbai, but no one was injured.   Fifteen fire tenders and 12 water tankers eventually doused the flames after a five-hour fight around 11pm


DW: Tomorrow, It’s Surely Nearer Now?

Photo: Douglas-Westwood

A sustained supply glut has maintained Brent oil prices through the first five months of 2015 at some 47 percent lower than the same period in 2014. Industry observers expect low oil prices to eventually take supply out of the market and drive a price correction, noted Douglas-Westwood.  






 
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