International Monetary Fund News

“Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global container market grew only 1.5% from 171.0 million TEU in 2019 to 173.5 million TEU in 2023. Without the pandemic, that figure would have been 24.6 million higher, landing at 198.1 million in 2023,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.During the past four years, the container market has faced not only lower than expected growth in the global economy, but the ratio of market growth vs economic growth, the so-called GDP multiplier…

In 2023, the container market grew 0.2% year-on-year, ending at 173.8 million TEU. Compared to 2019, before the COVID pandemic hit, the market grew 1.5%.“Container market growth has lagged behind overall economic development significantly, as the world economy has grown 10% since 2019,” says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.Highlighting the challenge for liner operators, the container fleet capacity in 2023 grew 21% vs 2019 and 8% vs 2022. The order book of new ships will add nearly 25% to the capacity during the next four and a half years.

Shipping traffic through the Suez Canal fell 20% between Dec. 24 and Jan. 2 compared to a year earlier, according to the PortWatch platform, after shipping companies began re-routing vessels in response to attacks by Yemen's Houthis.From Dec. 15, when Maersk became the first shipper to announce diversions, until Jan. 2, the most recent date for which International Monetary Fund's PortWatch has data, the number of tankers and cargo ships passing through the crucial shipping lane fell by 10%.But seven-day averages only began dipping on Dec.

“In the first 10 months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electricity produced using renewable energy rose. Also slowed economic activity and high energy prices affected electricity demand,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.Between January and August, electricity production in advanced economies fell by 4% y/y, according to data from the International Energy Agency. In 2023, measures against high inflation slowed economic growth in advanced economies.

Shipping group NORDEN has acquired larger capesize dry bulk ships, aiming to benefit from China's economy reopening and expectations of a pick up in commodities trade, the Danish company's CEO said. Three years of rigid border controls and sweeping lockdowns during the pandemic have sapped business confidence in China, especially among foreign firms, according to sentiment surveys. China has set itself a target for gross domestic product growth of around 5% this year, after significantly missing its target for 2022.

Globalization may have peaked, but the resilience of world trade in the face of mounting headwinds means a reversal of the past three decades is not inevitable.Since the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine shattered global supply chains, debate has raged over how integrated the global economy will be in the future compared with the previous 30 to 40 years.'Globalization' is an amorphous subject. According to the International Monetary Fund, economic globalization refers to "the increasing integration of economies around the world…

DP World expects freight rates to drop by a further 15% to 20% in 2023 as demand slows, the Dubai-based global logistics company's deputy chief executive and chief financial officer Yuvraj Narayan told Reuters on Monday.Narayan said the first signs of a significant drop in demand were visible and freight rates on the shipping side had declined quite significantly on certain routes as agencies including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered growth forecasts.Freight rates are the prices at which cargoes are delivered by container from one point of the globe to another.The biggest problem

Trade is a major cause of global warming. Think of all those goods travelling from far away on polluting ships – and raw materials and components whizzing across the world in complex supply chains.But the right trade policies can also do a lot to save the planet. The solution is to tax trade in carbon-intensive goods and get rid of tariffs on clean ones – while also subsidising green technologies and stopping aid to dirty ones. And to do all this fairly.Trade wasn’t prominent at COP27, the United Nations climate conference which just finished in Egypt.

For the poor, small South American country of Guyana, there's no time like the present when it comes to reaping the rewards of its offshore oil jackpot.With sky-high oil prices, a transition to renewable energy on the horizon, and 750,000 citizens desperate for better lives, Guyana is putting its foot on the gas to exploit its vast oil reserves, even if that means sacrificing some longer-term gains.Already locked into contracts with oil firms that have been criticized for being too one-sided…

Shipping companies are transforming rust buckets into gold mines in a modern-day alchemy that could fuel already rampant inflation for years to come.The disruption to world trade caused by pandemic lockdowns and a shortage of new cargo vessels has pushed freight rates for ageing containerships to record highs.Cashing in on the boom, shipping firms are locking in long-term leases lasting three to four years, which means consumers could carry on paying the price for the surge in costs until hundreds of new ships on order come into service.Take the Synergy Oakland…

Britain said on Wednesday that people should buy normally for Christmas and there would be no shortage of gifts after shipping containers carrying toys and electrical goods were diverted from the country’s biggest port because it was full.Maersk, the world’s largest container shipping company, has diverted some vessels from Felixstowe port in eastern England because a lack of truck drivers means there is nowhere left to stack containers at the port.“I’m confident that people will be able to get their toys for Christmas,” Conservative Party co-Chairman Oliver Dowden told Sky.

Unequal vaccine distribution has put a stopper in the recovery in parts of the world, adding to supply chain disruptions and slowing growth even in countries protected by higher vaccination rates, says shipping trade organization BIMCO. In a globalized world, no one can return to normal before everyone can.The world is increasingly divided between countries where high vaccination rates are protecting populations, and thereby protecting the economies, and countries at the other end of the scale where vaccination rates, in some cases, still stand in single-digits.

Germany will next week present a multi-billion-dollar proposal to Lebanese authorities to rebuild the Port of Beirut as part of efforts to entice the country’s politicians to form a government capable of warding off financial collapse, two sources said.A chemical explosion at the port last August killed 200 people, injured thousands and destroyed entire neighborhoods in Lebanon’s capital, plunging the country deeper into its worst political and economic crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.According to two diplomatic sources with knowledge of the plans…

A Lebanese shipbuilder at the center of a $2 billion debt scandal in Mozambique said it made payments to its now-president and ruling party in 2014, but said these were legal campaign donations not bribes, according to a London court filing.Privinvest said payments made to President Filipe Nyusi in the run-up to his election and to the Frelimo party were allowed under Mozambican law, according to the Jan. 15 filing at London’s High Court.The case relates to a series of tuna fishing…

As the maritime world collectively feels its way forward in a time now defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, the organizers of the SMM in Hamburg, traditionally the world's largest and most influential maritime and shipbuilding trade event, share market overview insights on the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic throughout the the shipping industry.The Covid-19 pandemic has turned the world economy on its head. “The recession this year will likely be more severe, and recovery in 2021 will be slower than we anticipated two months ago…

Global supply of fuel oil, used by ships and power plants, is expected to grow in the third quarter, depressing the marine fuel market as shipping demand remains weak, analysts and trade sources said.Third-quarter supply is estimated to rise by 620,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the second quarter as China and Brazil increase production, according to consultancy Energy Aspects.This comes as inventories across key marine refueling hubs recently reached all-time highs, depressing bunker fuel prices and refiners' margins and dashing hopes for a profitable year for sellers of low sulfur fuel that

Oil product tankers earnings have skyrocketed in the first half of 2020, while the sale and purchase (S&P) activity of the oil product tanker market has slowed to the lowest level since 2016. Data from VesselsValue highlight that in the first five months of 2020, only 2.8 million deadweight tons (DWT) of oil product tankers have shifted hands in the second-hand market, a 45% drop compared to the same period last year.A surprising S&P slowdown?The oil product tanker market has thereby experienced a disconnect in the first half of 2020 with high spot earnings…

Japan's exports slumped the most in nearly four years in March as U.S.-bound shipments, including cars, fell at the fastest rate since 2011, highlighting the damage the coronavirus pandemic has inflicted on global trade.Monday's bleak data underscored the challenges Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government faces in dealing with a collapse in activity that is expected to send the global economy into its deepest slump since the Great Depression of the 1930s.After a jump in virus cases…

Ships and their crews must be able to trade freely with minimal port restrictions to ensure supply lines don't freeze up while the coronavirus shuts down much of the globe, shipping and port officials said on Tuesday.After draconian steps to stop the spread of the virus, China's economy is slowly coming back online but logistics chains are backing up in other parts of the world.This has been compounded by ships being quarantined for up to two weeks and seafarers held up as countries impose lockdowns to stop the spread of the virus.The International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) association…

As many markets struggle to find their footing in the face of the global COVID-19 pandemic, a recent podcast with Martin Muhleisen, director of the IMF's Strategy, Policy, and Review department, helps to lend insight and perspective from the view of the International Monetary Fund.Muhleisen  said the impact of the global coronavirus pandemic will be “quite severe,” but temporary, saying that the overall good health of the world economy and high employment rates should help to provide buffers to blunt the impact“I would think that financial institutions more broadly are in a better shape than…

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak of the novel coronavirus a pandemic. There is little doubt that this will have significant implications for the shipping industry. But to what extent? BIMCO expects that the strict containment measures imposed by governments around the world will result in substantially lower global economic growth and consequentially, lower demand for shipping. Container and dry bulk shipping are at the front line when it comes to feeling the fallout…

BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand, will be speaking and providing the audience with unique insights on the container market at the European Shipping Seminar on November 27, 2019 in Athens, Greece.The European Shipping Seminar, hosted by S&P Global Platts, will discuss the various topics relating to the commercial shipping markets and take a deep dive into how the shipping industry will navigate its way through the uncertain environment of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap.Container shipping outlookBIMCO has persistently stressed that trade wars and protectionism are negative for shipping.

Growth in global seaborne box trade is expected to remain largely constant in 2019, with Non-Mainlane trade being an important driver while Mainlane trades expected to expand only moderately, said Norway-based MPC Container Ships ASA.In particular, the pace of global manufacturing remains a cause for concern as growth rates in Europe and Asia have been disappointing, the owner and operator of container ships said in a stock exchange annoucement.Present year container trade is estimated to grow by about 3.6%, whereas Transpacific trades grow by 0.5%, Far East Europe trades with 2.0% North-South trades with 3.7%, Other East-West with 4.1% and Intra-Regional trades with 4.9%.Trade tariffs and the threat thereof will remain a key issue in 2019.