Ins and Outs of Tanker Spot Rate Analysis Revealed

MarineLink
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Analysis: Image credit McQuilling Services

Marine Transport Advisors, McQuilling Services, explain important elements of their forecasting process when they develop the final forecast set out in their recent '2014-2018 Tanker Market Outlook' analysis.

The Outlook is synthesized from the following six components:

  • Quantitative Modeling
  • Sensitivity (reference, high and  low cases)
  • Experiential Adjustments
  • Tonnage Supply & Demand Bias (Capacity index)
  • Previous Outlook & Market Performance
  • Seasonality

Interestingly, of four primary observations regarding vessels that transport crude and dirty products it was observed that the historically strong relationship between monthly OPEC production and VLCC monthly average spot rates between 2005 and 2010 had disappeared.  This is because this relationship did not consider changes in tonnage supply which have a significant effect on rates in the VLCC sector.

Since the inception of this process, McQuilling claim it has proven to be a reasonably predictive gauge of spot market freight rates.  Over the last 16 market forecasting cycles, we produced forecasts that were within +/-10% of actual levels observed nine times.  We were within +/-30% of actual market levels in 13 cycles. 

Further information: https://www.mcquilling.com/

Maritime Reporter June 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

ClassNK Holds LNG Fuel Technologies Seminars

ClassNk held LNG-Fuelled Vessel Technologies seminars in Shanghai and Singapore on 22 July and 24, July 2014, respectively. With the industry looking to adopt

USCG Change of Command in Galveston

A Coast Guard lieutenant commander and graduate of Hastings High School in Houston, took command of Maritime Safety and Security Team Galveston during a ceremony in Galveston Thursday.

Miller Rejoins TITAN as Salvage Master

Captain Stuart Miller has rejoined Crowley Maritime Corporation’s TITAN Salvage operations team as salvage master, bringing with him over 30 years of worldwide,

Contracts

Hamburg Süd to Acquire CCNI Liner Service

Compañía Chilena de Navegación Interoceánica S.A. (CCNI) with headquarters in Valparaiso, Chile, and Hamburg Südamerikanische Dampfschifffahrts-Gesellschaft KG (HSDG) with headquarters in Hamburg,

Asia VLCC Rates Could Nudge Higher on Activity

Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian freight routes could hold steady or gain next week as charterers seek to complete their vessel chartering

Star Bulk Takes Delivery of First Capesize from JMU

Athens, Greece-headquartered Star Bulk Carriers says it has taken delivery of 'M/V Peloreus' a 182,000 dwt Capesize built by Japan Marine United (“JMU”) and the

Tanker Trends

Jones Act Tanker Chartered for Airline Refinery

Delta Air Lines Inc's refining unit has chartered a U.S.-flagged oil tanker for the first time, allowing it to tap directly into cheap Texas shale oil as the company overhauls its supply strategy.

Horizon Delivers 4th 74’ Towboat for Canal Barge Co.

Horizon Shipbuilding, Inc., Bayou La Batre, AL, has delivered the fourth in a series of 74’ towboats to Canal Barge Company, Inc. of New Orleans, LA.    The

Asia VLCC Rates Could Nudge Higher on Activity

Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian freight routes could hold steady or gain next week as charterers seek to complete their vessel chartering

Finance

Canal Project Slows Panama Economy Growth

Panama's economy expanded in May at its slowest pace since 2009 as major public works projects, including an expansion of the Panama Canal, slowed or wrapped up,

Gas Prices Help Offset Statoil's Output Drop

Statoil's second quarter 2014 net operating income was NOK 32 billion, a decrease of NOK 2.3 billion compared to the second quarter of 2013. Adjusted earnings were NOK 32.

Asia VLCC Rates Could Nudge Higher on Activity

Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian freight routes could hold steady or gain next week as charterers seek to complete their vessel chartering

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Maritime Standards Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Salvage Ship Repair Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1397 sec (7 req/sec)