Ins and Outs of Tanker Spot Rate Analysis Revealed

MarineLink
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Analysis: Image credit McQuilling Services

Marine Transport Advisors, McQuilling Services, explain important elements of their forecasting process when they develop the final forecast set out in their recent '2014-2018 Tanker Market Outlook' analysis.

The Outlook is synthesized from the following six components:

  • Quantitative Modeling
  • Sensitivity (reference, high and  low cases)
  • Experiential Adjustments
  • Tonnage Supply & Demand Bias (Capacity index)
  • Previous Outlook & Market Performance
  • Seasonality

Interestingly, of four primary observations regarding vessels that transport crude and dirty products it was observed that the historically strong relationship between monthly OPEC production and VLCC monthly average spot rates between 2005 and 2010 had disappeared.  This is because this relationship did not consider changes in tonnage supply which have a significant effect on rates in the VLCC sector.

Since the inception of this process, McQuilling claim it has proven to be a reasonably predictive gauge of spot market freight rates.  Over the last 16 market forecasting cycles, we produced forecasts that were within +/-10% of actual levels observed nine times.  We were within +/-30% of actual market levels in 13 cycles. 

Further information: https://www.mcquilling.com/

Maritime Reporter September 2013 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

NYK Opens New Planning Center in Kumamoto

On September 1, 2014, NYK and Kozo Keikaku Engineering Inc. established a stowage planning center for container shipping at the Kumamoto office of Kozo Keikaku Engineering Inc.

TNO Receives 'International Media Award for Prevention'

The Engagementgame developed by TNO in collaboration with partners is the winner of the 'International Media Award for Prevention' in the category Multi Media.

More German Shipowners Look to Gibdock for Repairs

Gibdock remarks it has continued to see its stock rise amongst the German shipowner community over the past year. Indeed the Gibraltar ship repair yard’s recent

Contracts

New Superyacht ROCKIT.IT Launched by Feadship

Feadship says it has launched the outstanding 60.35-metre motoryacht ROCK.IT. Created for an experienced owner who has chartered Feadships and appreciated the essence of the brand,

FTA Approves WSF Ferry Terminal Plans

In the latest Washington State Ferries Weekly Update, Capt. George A. Capacci, Interim Assistant Secretary WSDOT/Ferries Division briefs as follows: "FTA approves

NZ Interislander Ferry to Dry-dock in Devonport

NewZealand's KiwiRail says that the Interislander ferry Arahura has left Wellington for her scheduled bi-annual dry-docking in Devonport, having last visited Auckland in July 2012.

Tanker Trends

More German Shipowners Look to Gibdock for Repairs

Gibdock remarks it has continued to see its stock rise amongst the German shipowner community over the past year. Indeed the Gibraltar ship repair yard’s recent

Tankship Owners TORM Get Credit Facility Extension

Denmark-based TORM say that all lenders have supported the agreement to extend the existing Super Senior Working Capital Facility by six months until 31 March 2015

Iraqi Kurdistan Oil Shipments Reach 8.8m Barrels

Iraqi Kurdistan has shipped 8.8 million barrels of oil from the Turkish port of Ceyhan since May, Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz said, as the autonomous region

Finance

NZ's Lyttelton Port Recommends Offer, to Pay Special Dividend

The board of New Zealand's  Lyttelton Port Co. Ltd recommended minority shareholders accept an offer of NZ$3.95 a share offer from the commercial arm of the Christchurch city council.

A Boost for UK Offshore Drilling? DW Monday Muses

Drilling activity offshore UK is now expected to increase over the next few years as government and industry reacts to the recommendations in Sir Ian Wood’s report

MHI, IHI & DBJ Join Forces On Investments

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI), IHI Corporation and the Development Bank of Japan Inc. (DBJ) concluded a three-way formal agreement today on their respective

Consulting

TNO Receives 'International Media Award for Prevention'

The Engagementgame developed by TNO in collaboration with partners is the winner of the 'International Media Award for Prevention' in the category Multi Media.

No Sign of Ultra-Large Containership Mega Hubs: Analysis

Contrary to the views of some in the industry, Ultra Large Container Vessels are continuing to call at multiple North European ports per loop and are not concentrating on a mega-hub,

A Boost for UK Offshore Drilling? DW Monday Muses

Drilling activity offshore UK is now expected to increase over the next few years as government and industry reacts to the recommendations in Sir Ian Wood’s report

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Pipelines Pod Propulsion Salvage Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1799 sec (6 req/sec)