Ins and Outs of Tanker Spot Rate Analysis Revealed

MarineLink
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Analysis: Image credit McQuilling Services

Marine Transport Advisors, McQuilling Services, explain important elements of their forecasting process when they develop the final forecast set out in their recent '2014-2018 Tanker Market Outlook' analysis.

The Outlook is synthesized from the following six components:

  • Quantitative Modeling
  • Sensitivity (reference, high and  low cases)
  • Experiential Adjustments
  • Tonnage Supply & Demand Bias (Capacity index)
  • Previous Outlook & Market Performance
  • Seasonality

Interestingly, of four primary observations regarding vessels that transport crude and dirty products it was observed that the historically strong relationship between monthly OPEC production and VLCC monthly average spot rates between 2005 and 2010 had disappeared.  This is because this relationship did not consider changes in tonnage supply which have a significant effect on rates in the VLCC sector.

Since the inception of this process, McQuilling claim it has proven to be a reasonably predictive gauge of spot market freight rates.  Over the last 16 market forecasting cycles, we produced forecasts that were within +/-10% of actual levels observed nine times.  We were within +/-30% of actual market levels in 13 cycles. 

Further information: https://www.mcquilling.com/

Maritime Reporter February 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

USCG Free Boat from Ice Near Woods Hole

A Coast Guard crew responded to a fishing vessel trapped in ice in Woods Hole Passage, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, Saturday. At about 3 p.m., the crew of the fishing boat Capt.

Tug Boat Owner Jailed After Crew Man Dies

A tug boat owner was today was given an 8 month custodial sentence after his crew member died trying to reattach a tow line in a violent storm. During today’s hearing at Southampton Crown Court,

COMPIT to Showcase Smarter Ships, Systems & Solutions

The 14th International Conference on Computer and IT Applications in the Maritime Industries (COMPIT) will take place from 11th to 13th May 2015 in Ulrichshusen, Germany.

Contracts

Chassis Pools for Port of Long Beach

Three companies that own the vast majority of chassis serving the San Pedro Bay ports are on track to activate a “gray chassis fleet” of truck-trailers on March 1,

Davie Building LNG-powered Ferries

Canadian shipbuilder Davie held a keel laying ceremony for MV Armand-Imbeau II, marking the beginning of the hull assembly for this first of two sisterships under

Lithuania Looks to U.S. for Gas

Lithuanian liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer Litgas has signed a preliminary agreement with a U.S. supplier, looking to lessen the Baltic nation's dependence on Russia.

Tanker Trends

ClassNK's Structural Rules for Bulkers & Tankers

The Nippon Kaiji Kyokai (ClassNK) has announced the establishment of its “Common Structural Rules for Bulk Carriers and Oil Tanker” (Rules for the Survey and

Brightoil Reports Steady Growth in Interim Results

Brightoil Petroleum (Holdings) Limited announced its interim results for the six months ended December 31, 2014, reporting steady growth over the period.   During the period,

Lithuania Looks to U.S. for Gas

Lithuanian liquefied natural gas (LNG) importer Litgas has signed a preliminary agreement with a U.S. supplier, looking to lessen the Baltic nation's dependence on Russia.

Finance

Indian Ports to Set Sail on Corporatization

Indian Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in Union Budget 2015 that government-run ports in India will be encouraged to corporatize and become companies under the Companies Act.

Zvezda Shipyard Comes Up Despite Western Sanctions

German and Finnish partners continue to build Russia’s Far Eastern “Zvezda” shipyard for Arctic oil exploration ships, in spite of Western sanctions, reports Sputnik.

ADB Okays $30mln for Pak LNG Terminal

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $30 million project loan to Engro Elengy Terminal Private Limited, a special purpose company which will build Pakistan’s

Consulting

ST Engineering Y-O-Y Profits Slip

Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd  reported today its full year financial results ended 31 December 2014 (FY2014) with a Group revenue of $6.54b compared to $6.

USCG Foundation Announces Scholarships

The Coast Guard Foundation, a non-profit organization committed to the education and welfare of Coast Guard members and their families, announced today that

MCPON Stevens Delivers Congressional Testimony

Master Chief Petty Officer of the Navy (MCPON)(AW/NAC) Michael Stevens testified before Congress Feb. 25. Stevens appeared before the House and Armed Services

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Maritime Standards Navigation Pipelines Pod Propulsion Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1502 sec (7 req/sec)