Ins and Outs of Tanker Spot Rate Analysis Revealed

MarineLink
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Analysis: Image credit McQuilling Services

Marine Transport Advisors, McQuilling Services, explain important elements of their forecasting process when they develop the final forecast set out in their recent '2014-2018 Tanker Market Outlook' analysis.

The Outlook is synthesized from the following six components:

  • Quantitative Modeling
  • Sensitivity (reference, high and  low cases)
  • Experiential Adjustments
  • Tonnage Supply & Demand Bias (Capacity index)
  • Previous Outlook & Market Performance
  • Seasonality

Interestingly, of four primary observations regarding vessels that transport crude and dirty products it was observed that the historically strong relationship between monthly OPEC production and VLCC monthly average spot rates between 2005 and 2010 had disappeared.  This is because this relationship did not consider changes in tonnage supply which have a significant effect on rates in the VLCC sector.

Since the inception of this process, McQuilling claim it has proven to be a reasonably predictive gauge of spot market freight rates.  Over the last 16 market forecasting cycles, we produced forecasts that were within +/-10% of actual levels observed nine times.  We were within +/-30% of actual market levels in 13 cycles. 

Further information: https://www.mcquilling.com/

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter February 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

SunEdison Restrained from 'Unusual' Asset Transfers

Solar company SunEdison Inc said a U.S. court has restrained the company from making any unusual asset transfers until a hearing in a lawsuit brought on by investors

Maersk to Scrap Ships at India's Alang Beaches, NGO Dismayed

Maersk Line said on Friday it had chosen four shipbreaking yards along India's Alang beaches to handle an increase in vessels that need to be scrapped, to the dismay

Teknotherm Marine Moves HVAC Arm to Bergen

Maritime heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) firm Teknotherm Marine has established a new subsidiary is established with the name Teknotherm Marine HVAC AS.

Contracts

Sea IT, Veritas Tankers Ink Long-term Software Deal

Sea IT has entered a long term ICT agreement with Veritas Tankers. The agreement comprises installation of BlueCORE Generation 4, an ICT platform specifically developed for the marine industry,

Interior Facelift for Queen Mary 2

Cunard’s luxurious flagship, the iconic 2,620 passenger ocean liner Queen Mary 2, will undergo an interior refit at the hands of McCue Marine during a 25-day multimillion-pound

Chemical Shipping Freight Rates to Remain Under Pressure

On the back of low bunker prices and more new buildings to be delivered in 2016, chemical shipping freight rates for both contracts of affreightment and spot cargoes

Tanker Trends

Indiana Ports Sets Cargo Record in 2015

State's three ports handle 12 million tons for first time in 54-year history  INDIANAPOLIS (Feb. 11, 2016) - The Ports of Indiana handled over 12.2 million tons of cargo in 2015,

Owner Fined for 'Dangerously Unsafe' Vessel

The owner of a harbor tanker has been fined £3,000 with more than £7,000 costs after pleading guilty to a charge of operating a vessel for being dangerously unsafe.

Shipping Corporation Q3 Profit Surges

The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) declared its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended 31st December 2015 posting a net profit of Rs. 59.66 crores as against a net profit of Rs.

Finance

Brazil's CEEE to sell stakes in Wind Farms, Dams

Brazil's Companhia Estadual de Energia Elétrica (CEEE), a power utility controlled by the state of Rio Grande do Sul, will sell assets including stakes in wind farms,

DP World Bolsters Investment in India

DP World Pvt. Ltd, the world’s fourth biggest container port operator majority owned by the Dubai government, has plans to invest over $1 billion in India for augmenting its port-related operations.

SunEdison Restrained from 'Unusual' Asset Transfers

Solar company SunEdison Inc said a U.S. court has restrained the company from making any unusual asset transfers until a hearing in a lawsuit brought on by investors

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pod Propulsion Salvage Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1079 sec (9 req/sec)