Ins and Outs of Tanker Spot Rate Analysis Revealed

MarineLink
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Analysis: Image credit McQuilling Services

Marine Transport Advisors, McQuilling Services, explain important elements of their forecasting process when they develop the final forecast set out in their recent '2014-2018 Tanker Market Outlook' analysis.

The Outlook is synthesized from the following six components:

  • Quantitative Modeling
  • Sensitivity (reference, high and  low cases)
  • Experiential Adjustments
  • Tonnage Supply & Demand Bias (Capacity index)
  • Previous Outlook & Market Performance
  • Seasonality

Interestingly, of four primary observations regarding vessels that transport crude and dirty products it was observed that the historically strong relationship between monthly OPEC production and VLCC monthly average spot rates between 2005 and 2010 had disappeared.  This is because this relationship did not consider changes in tonnage supply which have a significant effect on rates in the VLCC sector.

Since the inception of this process, McQuilling claim it has proven to be a reasonably predictive gauge of spot market freight rates.  Over the last 16 market forecasting cycles, we produced forecasts that were within +/-10% of actual levels observed nine times.  We were within +/-30% of actual market levels in 13 cycles. 

Further information: https://www.mcquilling.com/

Maritime Reporter March 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

Reopening Date of Libya Oil Ports Uncertain

It is too early to say when Libyan oil ports Es Sider and Ras Lanuf can reopen after a force loyal to a self-declared Tripoli government pulled out troops from frontlines near to the terminals,

Strategic Marine Delivers ‘Triple First’ StratCat

Strategic Marine, a leading specialist shipbuilder and member of the TriYards Group, has delivered a world’s first to European windfarm service sector operator, Njord Offshore.

Drydocks World, Maritime World Win Excellence Awards

Drydocks World and Maritime World have won the Excellence Award given by the International Maritime Club at the Golden Bells Awards 2015 - Middle East. Drydocks

Contracts

Strategic Marine Delivers ‘Triple First’ StratCat

Strategic Marine, a leading specialist shipbuilder and member of the TriYards Group, has delivered a world’s first to European windfarm service sector operator, Njord Offshore.

Rolls-Royce Propulsion Package for Polar Ship

Rolls-Royce has been awarded a contract by ship builder Fincantieri to supply a fully integrated propulsion system for Norway’s new Polar Research Vessel, which

Germany Fights for Indian Submarine Contract

German giant ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), the parent company of leading submarine builder HDW, will offer India its HDW Class 214 vessel, with an eye to

Tanker Trends

Reopening Date of Libya Oil Ports Uncertain

It is too early to say when Libyan oil ports Es Sider and Ras Lanuf can reopen after a force loyal to a self-declared Tripoli government pulled out troops from frontlines near to the terminals,

NORDEN CEO: Bulk Market Challenges to Continue

Klaus Nyborg, interim CEO at Denmark-based dry bulk and product tanker shipping company Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN A/S, expects difficult dry cargo market conditions

Helios LPG Pool to Start Operating

Dorian LPG Ltd. today announced the commencement of operations of Helios LPG Pool LLC on April 1st, 2015.  Helios LPG is jointly run by Dorian LPG and Phoenix Tankers Pte.

Finance

Reopening Date of Libya Oil Ports Uncertain

It is too early to say when Libyan oil ports Es Sider and Ras Lanuf can reopen after a force loyal to a self-declared Tripoli government pulled out troops from frontlines near to the terminals,

Poland's LNG Terminal - Unfinished Agenda for Saipem

Poland's liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal at the Baltic port of Świnoujście will be completed only if Italian firm Saipem receives further payment, reports Reuters.

Emission Control to Cost Additional $100 bln for Shipping Lines

The implementation of a global sulfur cap slated for 2020 is estimated to add an additional $50-100 billion to the shipping industry's annual fuel bills, Lloyd's List reports.

Consulting

China Maritime Silk Road to Touch India for Namesake

Chinese officials on Saturday fleshed out some details for the country's ambitious 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) project in its “one belt, one road,” action plan.

Holland America Line Ships Score 100

On recent routine United States Public Health inspections (USPHI) conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Holland America Line’s ms Statendam,

Princess Astrid visits DP World

Antwerp Gateway, managed by DP World (one of the largest container terminal operators in the world) is a significant contributor to the success of the Port of Antwerp.

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Navigation Offshore Oil Pod Propulsion Port Authority Salvage Ship Repair Ship Simulators Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1840 sec (5 req/sec)