Where will Rates Go? It’s Anybody’s Guess

Wednesday, March 10, 2004
Intertanko has established a tradition of asking members and guests at its Annual Dinner to forecast what the rates will be one year ahead when they gather again for the next Tanker Event and AGM.

Last year in Washington, the secretariat threatened to reveal the findings of the psychoanalyst that they had allegedly employed to scrutinize the forecasts made in Rotterdam in 2002. Owners were as bad as charterers, and brokers as bad as analysts at predicting future market levels!

With the Annual Event and Dinner in Dubai now only a few weeks away (28-31 March) the analysis of last year's forecasters is already causing considerable amusement in the INTERTANKO offices around the world. What would you have forecast a year ago for end March 2004 for:

WS rate VLCC AG-Japan?

Million dwt. of tankers sold for recycling in 2003?

Oil price Brent Blend (USD/bbl)?

While the deadweight recycled is a known figure and the winner has been identified (but remains a closely guarded secret), the WS rate and oil price are still "up in the air". In the meantime, will the WS improve to reach the highest WS rate forecast of W145?

Hopefully it will not collapse to the lowest level predicted - W29. The oil price predictions spanned a much narrower band, namely 15-35 USD/bbl., and a close outcome is anticipated. However the top line speakers from the tanker and the oil industries that have been lined up for the Tanker Event will certainly give those attending a better chance of getting it right next year. So join us for this year's Event, participate in a first-rate program and enjoy good company in Dubai.

(Source: Intertanko)

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter January 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Tanker Trends

U.S. Okays ConocoPhillips Alaska LNG Exports

The U.S. Department of Energy approved ConocoPhillips' application to export about 40 billion cubic feet of natural gas from its Kenai liquefied natural gas export

Bibby Tops IoM Ship Management

Bibby Ship Management is once again the largest representative for vessels flying the Isle of Man flag in providing representative services for 30% of vessel tonnage registered on the island.

Maersk Profit Down 82%

Danish shipping and energy conglomerate Maersk Group delivered a profit of USD 925m for the full year ending December 31st 2015, against USD 5.2bn reported in 2014, a drop of 82%.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Naval Architecture Offshore Oil Pipelines Port Authority Ship Repair Ship Simulators Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.0631 sec (16 req/sec)