Q2 Trade Data Signals Long-Term Change

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Growing consumer demand within China coupled with a worldwide decline in the West’s ability to consume Chinese-made goods, may herald long-term changes in the pattern of world trade.

This is the prediction from MDS Transmodal, a specialist transport and trade consultancy, after analyzing for The Shippers’ Voice, the Chinese trade data for the second quarter 2009 as one of the inputs to its World Cargo Database.

“The impact on the import/export balance of container traffic is dramatic,” said Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal. “In Q2 2008 there were only 56 tonnes of Chinese imports for every 100 tonnes exported. One year later, that figure has grown to 80 tonnes. If that trend continues, container lines will have to seriously address their strategies.”

He said that Chinese exports drive the overall demand for global shipping capacity. “Here the picture is bleak. A year on year fall of 23% for Q1 2009 has been followed by a 22% decline in Q2 2009. The best that can be said is the decline has been arrested. Q2 2009 results are 24% lower than in Q3 2008, the peak quarter of all time.”

The consultancy has also examined the destination of Chinese exports and concluded that the decline in the ability of the West to consume Chinese goods is widespread. Ranking destination countries by their container tonnages received in 2008, growth cannot be found for Q2 2009 until China’s 22nd ranked export destination is reached (Saudi Arabia).

The 2nd quarter Chinese trade data, coupled with the announcement that US GDP continued to fall over the same quarter leads MDS Transmodal to one conclusion.

“Our analysis of the trade data provides tangible evidence of a restructuring of the economies of the Far East and the Western world,” said Mr Garratt. “China, and probably the rest of the Far East except Japan, is sucking in the exports it needs to support its domestic economy that continues to expand – without needing to export in the same quantities it used to.”

(www.shippersvoice.com)

Maritime Reporter May 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

DP World Extends Title Sponsorship Until 2020

Dubai is set to remain at the epicenter of golf on The European Tour for the foreseeable future after global port operator DP World announced today that it will

SCI Back in the Black after 3 Yrs

The Shipping Corporation of India Ltd (SCI), India’s largest shipping company and a Government of India Public Sector Undertaking having reported losses for

HSH Nordbank Looking to Split Off Bad Shipping Loans

HSH Nordbank AG, the world’s second-largest financier of ships, plans to split off a "bad bank" for non-performing shipping loans as part of a plan to create a sustainable business model,

News

DP World Extends Title Sponsorship Until 2020

Dubai is set to remain at the epicenter of golf on The European Tour for the foreseeable future after global port operator DP World announced today that it will

IMO Adopts Polar Code Environmental Provisions

United Nations' International Maritime Organization (IMO) has adopted the environmental part of the Polar Code. Hereby, internationally binding regulations on

HMAS Anzac Visits Portsmouth, UK

The Royal Australian Navy’s helicopter frigate HMAS Anzac has arrived in Portsmouth, England, as part of her NORTHERN TRIDENT 2015 deployment.   Anzac departed Sydney in March 2015,

 
 
Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Electronics Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1602 sec (6 req/sec)