Q2 Trade Data Signals Long-Term Change

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Growing consumer demand within China coupled with a worldwide decline in the West’s ability to consume Chinese-made goods, may herald long-term changes in the pattern of world trade.

This is the prediction from MDS Transmodal, a specialist transport and trade consultancy, after analyzing for The Shippers’ Voice, the Chinese trade data for the second quarter 2009 as one of the inputs to its World Cargo Database.

“The impact on the import/export balance of container traffic is dramatic,” said Mike Garratt of MDS Transmodal. “In Q2 2008 there were only 56 tonnes of Chinese imports for every 100 tonnes exported. One year later, that figure has grown to 80 tonnes. If that trend continues, container lines will have to seriously address their strategies.”

He said that Chinese exports drive the overall demand for global shipping capacity. “Here the picture is bleak. A year on year fall of 23% for Q1 2009 has been followed by a 22% decline in Q2 2009. The best that can be said is the decline has been arrested. Q2 2009 results are 24% lower than in Q3 2008, the peak quarter of all time.”

The consultancy has also examined the destination of Chinese exports and concluded that the decline in the ability of the West to consume Chinese goods is widespread. Ranking destination countries by their container tonnages received in 2008, growth cannot be found for Q2 2009 until China’s 22nd ranked export destination is reached (Saudi Arabia).

The 2nd quarter Chinese trade data, coupled with the announcement that US GDP continued to fall over the same quarter leads MDS Transmodal to one conclusion.

“Our analysis of the trade data provides tangible evidence of a restructuring of the economies of the Far East and the Western world,” said Mr Garratt. “China, and probably the rest of the Far East except Japan, is sucking in the exports it needs to support its domestic economy that continues to expand – without needing to export in the same quantities it used to.”

(www.shippersvoice.com)

Maritime Reporter June 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

Seadrill Bondholders: Majority Accept Conversion Offer

Seadrill Limited says that holders of approximately US$547 million of Seadrill's convertible bonds due 2017 (representing approx. 84.1% of the total outstanding

General Dynamics Reports 2Q 2014 Earnings

General Dynamics today reported 2014 second-quarter earnings from continuing operations of $646 million, or $1.88 per share on a diluted basis, compared to second-quarter

Trading Dutch Well Placed to Pursue Russia Sanctions

The seafaring Netherlands prides itself on being a trading nation, reluctant to let politics get in the way of a good deal. But since the downing, allegedly

News

2545 Candidates Vie for 11 Positions in Maersk Drilling

2545, that is exactly how many applicants applied for the 11 MITAS engineer positions available in Maersk Drilling in 2014. The Maersk International Technology and Science Programme,

Jacksonville Dedicates New PORTS® Real-time Data System

Officials from NOAA, the Jacksonville Marine Transportation Exchange, and the Jacksonville Port Authority officially dedicated a new information system today

Saab Completes Acquisition of TKMS (Kockums)

Defence and security company Saab's acquisition of the Swedish shipyard Thyssen Krupp Marine Systems (TKMS, formerly Kockums) has now been completed. The acquisition

 
 
Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Port Authority Ship Electronics Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1855 sec (5 req/sec)