Where will Rates Go? It’s Anybody’s Guess

Wednesday, March 10, 2004
Intertanko has established a tradition of asking members and guests at its Annual Dinner to forecast what the rates will be one year ahead when they gather again for the next Tanker Event and AGM.

Last year in Washington, the secretariat threatened to reveal the findings of the psychoanalyst that they had allegedly employed to scrutinize the forecasts made in Rotterdam in 2002. Owners were as bad as charterers, and brokers as bad as analysts at predicting future market levels!

With the Annual Event and Dinner in Dubai now only a few weeks away (28-31 March) the analysis of last year's forecasters is already causing considerable amusement in the INTERTANKO offices around the world. What would you have forecast a year ago for end March 2004 for:

WS rate VLCC AG-Japan?

Million dwt. of tankers sold for recycling in 2003?

Oil price Brent Blend (USD/bbl)?

While the deadweight recycled is a known figure and the winner has been identified (but remains a closely guarded secret), the WS rate and oil price are still "up in the air". In the meantime, will the WS improve to reach the highest WS rate forecast of W145?

Hopefully it will not collapse to the lowest level predicted - W29. The oil price predictions spanned a much narrower band, namely 15-35 USD/bbl., and a close outcome is anticipated. However the top line speakers from the tanker and the oil industries that have been lined up for the Tanker Event will certainly give those attending a better chance of getting it right next year. So join us for this year's Event, participate in a first-rate program and enjoy good company in Dubai.

(Source: Intertanko)

Maritime Reporter September 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Tanker Trends

GAO: Ending Crude Export Ban Could Ease 'Price at the Pump'

As the energy profile of the U.S. continues to improve and evolve daily, fresh debate in favor of exporting oil and gas products -- which would have a significant impact on the U.

'New Tango' Brings More Post-Panamax Ships to Charleston

New service expands Port of Charleston's capacity to serve North-South trade The SC Ports Authority today received the first ship call of a new consolidated

Frontline appoints Macleod as new CEO

Crude oil tanker firm Frontline, part of shipping tycoon John Fredriksen's business empire, appointed Robert Hvide Macleod as chief executive to replace Jens Martin Jensen, the firm said on Monday.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Standards Navigation Pipelines Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Repair Ship Simulators Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1571 sec (6 req/sec)