Intertanko has established a tradition of asking members and guests at its Annual Dinner to forecast what the rates will be one year ahead when they gather again for the next Tanker Event and AGM.
Last year in Washington, the secretariat threatened to reveal the findings of the psychoanalyst that they had allegedly employed to scrutinize the forecasts made in Rotterdam in 2002. Owners were as bad as charterers, and brokers as bad as analysts at predicting future market levels!
With the Annual Event and Dinner in Dubai now only a few weeks away (28-31 March) the analysis of last year's forecasters is already causing considerable amusement in the INTERTANKO offices around the world.
What would you have forecast a year ago for end March 2004 for:
WS rate VLCC AG-Japan?
Million dwt. of tankers sold for recycling in 2003?
Oil price Brent Blend (USD/bbl)?
While the deadweight recycled is a known figure and the winner has been identified (but remains a closely guarded secret), the WS rate and oil price are still "up in the air". In the meantime, will the WS improve to reach the highest WS rate forecast of W145?
Hopefully it will not collapse to the lowest level predicted - W29. The oil price predictions spanned a much narrower band, namely 15-35 USD/bbl., and a close outcome is anticipated. However the top line speakers from the tanker and the oil industries that have been lined up for the Tanker Event will certainly give those attending a better chance of getting it right next year. So join us for this year's Event, participate in a first-rate program and enjoy good company in Dubai.
(Source: Intertanko)