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Brent Holds Above $98 Despite Weak Demand

Maritime Activity Reports, Inc.

September 12, 2014

Brent crude held above $98 a barrel on Friday, heading for its worst week in six as concerns over weak demand outweighed geopolitical worries in the Middle East and Ukraine.

* China, Europe oil demand growth slows at remarkable -IEA
* Geopolitical tensions ratchet up over Syria
* Markets look ahead to U.S., China econ data

Weaker oil demand in China and Europe had caused growth in global oil demand to soften at a remarkable pace, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report released on Thursday.

The West's energy watchdog cut its demand growth projections by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 900,000 bpd for 2014 and by 100,000 bpd to 1.2 million bpd in 2015.

Brent is down 3 percent for the week so far, headed for its biggest weekly loss since the week to Aug. 1. The October contract had fallen a cent to $98.07 by 0647 GMT after a 4-cent gain in the previous session snapped a 5-day losing streak.

U.S. crude gained 32 cents to $93.15 a barrel after closing up $1.16 on Thursday.

"I believe Brent is oversold which should warrant buy-back. I'm a little bullish on oil and it could bounce back to $100 next week," said Tetsu Emori, a commodity fund manager at Tokyo's Astmax Co Ltd. "Investors are discounting the geopolitical risks in the market, but we see such risks."

Brent bounced from a 2-year low on Thursday after Russia warned the U.S. that air strikes in Syria against Islamist militants would be an act of aggression without a U.N. security mandate. This raised the spectre of a new confrontation between Moscow and the West.

"I would like to see more risk premium priced in but the market doesn't want to," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney "There are still a lot of potential concerns, but the market seems relaxed by it all." Geopolitical worries included Russia, which is facing fresh sanctions from the European Union and the U.S. over the Ukraine crisis, McCarthy said.

The EU implemented tougher sanctions against Russia on Friday, which targeted some state-owned companies and individuals, although they could be removed if Moscow abides by a ceasefire between Kiev and pro-Russian separatists. However, Russia called the new measures anti-peace.

The United States will also release details later on Friday of its own new sanctions against Russia which are expected to target Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, and further limit Russian banks' access to U.S. capital.

Investors are waiting for U.S. retail sales data on Friday to indicate how well the world's largest economy is performing, Emori said.

This will be followed by industrial and retail sales figures from China on Saturday, which will show whether the world's second largest economy is picking up steam.

The market is also keeping an eye on Iran which faces a "difficult road" to reach an agreement with six world powers over Tehran's nuclear programme by a late November deadline, a senior Iranian negotiator said on Thursday.

By Keith Wallis

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