Tensions surrounding the changing status of Crimea have very little to do with the LNG market directly, considers PIRA in its latest 'Power and Coal Market Recap.'
While a threat of a cut in gas supplies could emerge from Russia, Ukraine, or the E.U., the reality is that the commercial situation could use a little less gas in the market and that goes for Europe and Asia.
From an LNG perspective, if you are going to have a supply crisis, the second quarter is probably the best time of the year to have it, as Asian gas demand drops to seasonal lows and Europe is showing record amounts of length in its own balances.
In reality, a crisis still appears to be a long shot, leading PIRA to the conclusion that further downward pressure on spot prices will emerge over the next 30 days.
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