BIMCO: Key Indicators for Shipping Demand

Posted by Eric Haun
Wednesday, August 13, 2014

New data on three of the key indicators followed by BIMCO’s shipping market analyst sheds light on near-term and future market developments. The news follow up on BIMCO market reports and comments to commercial developments for the three main shipping segments.

1. China’s industrial production (IP) grew by 9% in July over the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in China. This is a minor decrease from 9.2% in June, which was a three-month-high. In China, IP measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy such as manufacturing, mining, and utilities. IP is an indicator for GDP growth and a measure of economic activity. Last year, IP grew by 9.7%, while 2014 year-to-date it has grown by 8.8%, mirroring the lower GDP growth. While the IP numbers were solid and positive, the news about lower credit growth was the opposite and reflected the difficult task that Beijing faces in balancing the economy between the housing market and other sectors.

2. In Japan, the quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate came in at -6.8% for Q2-2014. The fall wiped out the +6.1% gain in Q1. The sales tax hike in April and subsequent sharp fall in consumer spending is largely to blame for this, with imports down as much as 20.5%. Exports were also down by 1.8%, suggesting that the economy is not gaining the desired advantage from the weakening of the Yen.

Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, Peter Sand, said, "The economic news from the two Asian giants shows that today there is no such thing as a steady state for economic development. Whereas China is carefully engaged in nursing its economic growth while avoiding the overheating of certain sectors of its economy, Japan is just about to re-ignite its economy following decades of poor performance. The development of both nations significantly impacts shipping demand”.

3. Finally, in the United States, crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.5 million barrels a day (bpd) in July, the highest level since April 1987, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA). For 2015, EIA now estimates production level at 9.3 million bpd for 2015. Should this happen, it will represent the highest production level since 1972. U.S. oil consumption peaked at 20.8 million bpd in 2005. The current estimate for 2014 consumption is just shy of 19 million bpd. This squeezes crude oil imports significantly while boosting oil product exports, both developments that shape the current and future oil tanker market.

“The developments taking place in U.S. oil market are a game changer for tanker shipping. The world’s largest oil consumer once dictated the fortunes of the tanker market with its huge imports of crude oil and oil products. Today, it represents the challenges as well as the opportunities for the industry, with the U.S. importing 4.6 m bpd of crude oil (excl. Canada) as compared to 8.5 m bpd eight years ago (2006), and 2011 being the year when the U.S. emerged as a net exporter of oil products," Peter Sand added.

bimco.org
 

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter May 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Tanker Trends

TORM CFO Zacho Resigns

Mads Peter Zacho, Chief Financial Offer at TORM, has resigned to become Chief Executive Officer at J. Lauritzen A/S. Mads has been with TORM since 2013 and will

Alfa Laval PureNOx Prime Ordered for Five VLECs

Alfa Laval’s new PureNOx Prime solution for water treatment in Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR), will be part of EGR systems on five very large ethane carriers

NASSCO Delivers Second ECO Tanker to APT

On Thursday, May 19, shipbuilders at General Dynamics NASSCO delivered the Magnolia State to longtime customer American Petroleum Tankers (APT). The ECO Class tanker

Container Ships

New Call at Port Kelang on CMA CGM’s REX 2

CMA CGM has introduced a new westbound call at Port Kelang on its REX 2 service connecting Asia with Red Sea.   CMA CGM has decided to replace its REX2 westbound Singapore call with Port Kelang.

Hapag-Lloyd Pushes Back AGM on Merger Talks

Hapag-Lloyd said it had decided to postpone its annual general meeting scheduled for June 1, 2016 due to ongoing merger talks between German container shipping

Maersk Line Launches Latin America, Asia Service

Maersk Line announced changes to its AC network with the launch of its AC1 service, connecting the West Coast of Latin America with Asia, beginning at the end of June.

News

Glosten Promotes Lamkin to Senior Marine Consultant

Seattle-based naval architecture and marine engineering consultancy Glosten has promoted Bradley G. Lamkin, PE to Senior Marine Consultant. As a Senior Marine Consultant

HII Secures Aircraft Carrier Planning Contract

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) was awarded a $152 million contract for advance planning for the construction of the third aircraft carrier in the Gerald R.

'K' Line Takes Delivery of Corona Series Coal Carrier

Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd., Tokyo, (“K” Line) has announced the delivery of Corona Victory, an 88,000 DWT-type special coal carrier at Marugame Shipyard of Imabari Shipbuilding Co.

Government Update

Japan, Canada Share "Serious Concerns" on South China Sea-PM Abe

Japan and Canada share "serious concerns" over reclamation and militarisation in the South China Sea, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said on Tuesday, in an

Atlantic Hurricane Season Could be More Active

The Atlantic Ocean could be gearing up for an active hurricane season, meaning North American residents may want to pay attention. In recent years, single hurricanes

Mumbai Port to Revamp Int'l Cruise Terminal

Indian Merchants’ Chamber provides a platform to urban developers to address various issues pertaining to the restructuring of Mumbai City Mumbai, May 23, 2016:

Logistics

New Call at Port Kelang on CMA CGM’s REX 2

CMA CGM has introduced a new westbound call at Port Kelang on its REX 2 service connecting Asia with Red Sea.   CMA CGM has decided to replace its REX2 westbound Singapore call with Port Kelang.

Baltic Index Falls on Weaker Demand

The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, fell on Tuesday as demand for larger vessel segments declined.

Hapag-Lloyd Pushes Back AGM on Merger Talks

Hapag-Lloyd said it had decided to postpone its annual general meeting scheduled for June 1, 2016 due to ongoing merger talks between German container shipping

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1537 sec (7 req/sec)