Mariko Semetko News

Moody's Japan K.K. says that its outlook for the global shipping industry over the next 12-18 months is negative. "The negative outlook reflects our expectation that earnings will worsen, with freight rates likely to remain depressed amid ample supply," says Mariko Semetko, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst. "We expect that the aggregate EBITDA of Moody's-rated shipping companies will fall by 7%-10% in 2016," adds Semetko. Moody's analysis is contained in its just-released report titled "Shipping Global: Low Freight Rates and EBITDA Decline Drive Negative Outlook". Moody's report says that conditions will remain weak for the dry bulk segment.

Moody's Investors Service has revised for the first time since June 2011 its outlook for the global shipping industry to stable from negative. "The revision reflects our expectation that the global industry's aggregate EBITDA will rise by mid-single digits in percentage terms year-over-year in 2014, in line with our -5% to 10% growth range for a  stable outlook," says Mariko Semetko, a Moody's Assistant Vice President  and Analyst. "And while overcapacity remains a concern, we believe industry conditions  are at a trough and that the supply-demand gap will not worsen  materially," says Semetko. "In this environment, we expect the supply of vessels will exceed demand  by no more than 2%, or that demand will exceed supply by up to 2%," says  Semetko.