Container Ship Newbuildings: Supply May Outstrip Demand

MarineLink.com
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Photo courtesy of APM

Ocean carriers have a pool of surplus 8,000-10,000 teu vessels looming ahead unless some thinking ‘outside of the box’ is behind recent newbuild orders, considers Drewry Maritime Research in their latest 'Container Insight'.

Supply side
Ocean carriers have returned to ordering vessels between 8,000-10,000 teu in large numbers, suggesting that either overcapacity is brewing ahead, or unusual service developments are in the pipeline. By the end of this year, 55 vessels averaging 8,600 teu will already have been delivered, increasing the sector’s capacity by a remarkable 18%, well ahead of global cargo growth, and a further 40 are due for delivery next year, which will increase it by another 11.6%. Moreover, 45 more are due for delivery in 2015, adding yet another 11.6%  y-on-y growth.

On top of this, say Drewry, around 20 existing vessels in the size range are due to become surplus to requirements once Maersk Line’s, MSC’s and CMA CGM’s Asia/North Europe services are merged in 2Q 14

To make matters worse, another 44 vessels averaging 14,638 teu are due for delivery next year (further postponements excluding), which will most probably lead to the same number of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu being displaced.

Demand side
On the demand side of the equation, the P3 alliance will probably need at least 30 of the units for its five Transatlantic services from 2Q 14, as made clear in last week’s Med-North America Supply/demand trade route analysis, and the previous week’s analysis of the North Europe-North America tradelane, although Maersk/MSC/CMA CGM’s intentions have yet to be confirmed, and it is still unclear what schedules are to be replaced.

Because its competitors will be unable to compete with the economies of scale offered by these bigger transatlantic ships – the average between Northern Europe and North America and between the Mediterranean and North America is just 4,000 teu and 4,800 teu respectively – they will presumably have to follow suit, but it remains to be confirmed how this will be done.

The G6 vessel sharing alliance (APL, Hapag-Lloyd, MOL, HMM, OOCL, NYK) has so far only clarified that its geographic scope is to be extended to the tradelane, as well as to the route between Asia and WCNA. No service rationalisation has been mentioned.

Ignoring this possibility, supply of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu looks set to well exceed demand growth, therefore, so where the excess will be deployed is intriguing. As explained in ‘North-South lanes reaching saturation’, there is no immediate home for the vessels outside of the east-west tradelanes, which is where the 21 units ordered by Hamburg Sud, CSAV and CCNI will presumably be deployed.

The opening of the Panama Canal’s expanded locks at the end of 2015 will open up many new possibilities, although, here again, nothing has yet been confirmed, so envisaging anything would just be conjecture. It is highly likely that many Asia/ECNA services will be upgraded from the current 5,000 teu restriction in 2016, however.

Drewry Maritime Research's View
The current order book of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu appears excessive.

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

Maritime Reporter October 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

World’s Largest Boxship is DNV GL classed

CSCL Globe, the world’s largest containership and the first of a series of five 19,100 TEU containerships ordered by China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) in 2013,

New Players in Singapore Markets in OW's Absence

The downfall of a leading marine fuel supplier that prompted sellers to tighten credit terms in Singapore is skewing the post-OW Bunker jostle for market share

Japan Military Wants China "Crisis Management" Pact

Japan's highest-ranking military officer on Friday urged an early start to a "crisis management" mechanism with China amid conflicting claims to a group of tiny East China Sea islands.

Contracts

EU Regs on Ship CO2 Reporting Complicates IMO Agreement

ICS Concerned that EU will Preempt IMO CO2 Negotiations.   The global trade association for shipowners – the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) – is disappointed

Asia VLCC Rates Could Could Climb Even More

Owners see rates climb by nearly $22,000 per day; Rates could peak as more tonnage comes free. Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian routes

New Players in Singapore Markets in OW's Absence

The downfall of a leading marine fuel supplier that prompted sellers to tighten credit terms in Singapore is skewing the post-OW Bunker jostle for market share

Shipbuilding

World’s Largest Boxship is DNV GL classed

CSCL Globe, the world’s largest containership and the first of a series of five 19,100 TEU containerships ordered by China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) in 2013,

ESSA's Fleet Upgradation Environmental Driven

State-controlled Exportadora de Sal SA de CV of Mexico ("ESSA"), one of the world’s largest salt exporters with a 10-million-ton annual production, has strengthened

Kleven Wins New Yacht Contract

Norwegian ship builder Kleven has secured a new contract for a high specification, 116-metre long Expedition Support Vessel. The order is placed by Mr Graeme Hart,

Finance

Asia VLCC Rates Could Could Climb Even More

Owners see rates climb by nearly $22,000 per day; Rates could peak as more tonnage comes free. Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian routes

New Players in Singapore Markets in OW's Absence

The downfall of a leading marine fuel supplier that prompted sellers to tighten credit terms in Singapore is skewing the post-OW Bunker jostle for market share

Asian Airlines Pause Before Hedging on Fuel

Oil fell to four-year low of $72 on Thursday; Airlines hope the price will slip below $70 a barrel. Airlines in Asia-Pacific are holding off from hedging their

Container Ships

World’s Largest Boxship is DNV GL classed

CSCL Globe, the world’s largest containership and the first of a series of five 19,100 TEU containerships ordered by China Shipping Container Lines (CSCL) in 2013,

DNV GL “Modification Excellence Award” for Schiffahrt

Classification society DNV GL recognised that E.R. Schiffahrt has retrofitted seven ultra large container vessels to meet the highest energy efficiency standards

World’s First LNG-Ready Ultra Large Container Ship Named

The race is on in global maritime circles to be the “world’s first” in every aspect of environmental friendliness, particularly in regards to the incorporation of LNG as fuel onboard commercial ships.

Logistics

Asia VLCC Rates Could Could Climb Even More

Owners see rates climb by nearly $22,000 per day; Rates could peak as more tonnage comes free. Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on key Asian routes

New Players in Singapore Markets in OW's Absence

The downfall of a leading marine fuel supplier that prompted sellers to tighten credit terms in Singapore is skewing the post-OW Bunker jostle for market share

NATO Unconcerned by Russian Warships in English Channel

A squadron of Russian warships entered the English Channel on Friday but a NATO official dismissed a Russian media report that they were there to conduct military exercises.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Navigation Pipelines Pod Propulsion Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1749 sec (6 req/sec)