Container Ship Newbuildings: Supply May Outstrip Demand

MarineLink.com
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
Photo courtesy of APM

Ocean carriers have a pool of surplus 8,000-10,000 teu vessels looming ahead unless some thinking ‘outside of the box’ is behind recent newbuild orders, considers Drewry Maritime Research in their latest 'Container Insight'.

Supply side
Ocean carriers have returned to ordering vessels between 8,000-10,000 teu in large numbers, suggesting that either overcapacity is brewing ahead, or unusual service developments are in the pipeline. By the end of this year, 55 vessels averaging 8,600 teu will already have been delivered, increasing the sector’s capacity by a remarkable 18%, well ahead of global cargo growth, and a further 40 are due for delivery next year, which will increase it by another 11.6%. Moreover, 45 more are due for delivery in 2015, adding yet another 11.6%  y-on-y growth.

On top of this, say Drewry, around 20 existing vessels in the size range are due to become surplus to requirements once Maersk Line’s, MSC’s and CMA CGM’s Asia/North Europe services are merged in 2Q 14

To make matters worse, another 44 vessels averaging 14,638 teu are due for delivery next year (further postponements excluding), which will most probably lead to the same number of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu being displaced.

Demand side
On the demand side of the equation, the P3 alliance will probably need at least 30 of the units for its five Transatlantic services from 2Q 14, as made clear in last week’s Med-North America Supply/demand trade route analysis, and the previous week’s analysis of the North Europe-North America tradelane, although Maersk/MSC/CMA CGM’s intentions have yet to be confirmed, and it is still unclear what schedules are to be replaced.

Because its competitors will be unable to compete with the economies of scale offered by these bigger transatlantic ships – the average between Northern Europe and North America and between the Mediterranean and North America is just 4,000 teu and 4,800 teu respectively – they will presumably have to follow suit, but it remains to be confirmed how this will be done.

The G6 vessel sharing alliance (APL, Hapag-Lloyd, MOL, HMM, OOCL, NYK) has so far only clarified that its geographic scope is to be extended to the tradelane, as well as to the route between Asia and WCNA. No service rationalisation has been mentioned.

Ignoring this possibility, supply of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu looks set to well exceed demand growth, therefore, so where the excess will be deployed is intriguing. As explained in ‘North-South lanes reaching saturation’, there is no immediate home for the vessels outside of the east-west tradelanes, which is where the 21 units ordered by Hamburg Sud, CSAV and CCNI will presumably be deployed.

The opening of the Panama Canal’s expanded locks at the end of 2015 will open up many new possibilities, although, here again, nothing has yet been confirmed, so envisaging anything would just be conjecture. It is highly likely that many Asia/ECNA services will be upgraded from the current 5,000 teu restriction in 2016, however.

Drewry Maritime Research's View
The current order book of vessels between 8,000 teu and 10,000 teu appears excessive.

Source: Drewry Maritime Research

Maritime Reporter July 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

Tugboat Capsizes Near 106th Bridge, Chicago

The Coast Guard informs it is responding to the capsize of a tug on the Calumet River near the 106th St. Bridge in Chicago, in which the two crew members were able

Oceanteam Focuses on Mexico Strategy

Oceanteam Shipping ASA releases its Q2 2014 financial report, with extracts as follows: The company says it saw, with its early focus on Mexico, a long term

HAL & Kelly Clark in ‘Attorneys Who Matter’ List Again

The Ethisphere Institute, the global leader in defining and advancing the standards of ethical business practices, recognized Holland America Line and Seabourn’s

Contracts

Oceanteam Focuses on Mexico Strategy

Oceanteam Shipping ASA releases its Q2 2014 financial report, with extracts as follows: The company says it saw, with its early focus on Mexico, a long term

Wärtsilä Signs Harvey Gulf OSV Maintenance Agreement

Wärtsilä says it has signed a long-term Technical Management Agreement with Harvey Gulf International Marine LLC (Harvey Gulf). This five-year agreement covers

Latest Ocean-Going Shipbuilding Orders

Clarkson Hellas notes in its latest 'S&P Weekly Bulletin' shipbuilding orders placed in the dry bulk, tankship, gas carrier and containership sectors, as follows: Dry

Shipbuilding

Latest Ocean-Going Shipbuilding Orders

Clarkson Hellas notes in its latest 'S&P Weekly Bulletin' shipbuilding orders placed in the dry bulk, tankship, gas carrier and containership sectors, as follows: Dry

Textron Awarded $22-M Navy LCAC Contract Modification

The US Department of Defense informs that Textron Inc., New Orleans, Louisiana, is being awarded a $21,904,620 modification to a previously awarded contract (N00024-12-C-2401)

ESG Replicates Historic Schooner 'Columbia'

Eastern Shipbuilding Group, Inc. (ESG) informs that a steel hull replica of the historic Gloucester Fishing Schooner COLUMBA has been launched at its Panama City,

Finance

Oceanteam Focuses on Mexico Strategy

Oceanteam Shipping ASA releases its Q2 2014 financial report, with extracts as follows: The company says it saw, with its early focus on Mexico, a long term

ARENA Supporting Bright Ideas in Solar R&D

The Australian Government today announced $21.5 million funding for 12 cutting edge R&D projects that will keep Australia at the forefront of solar research.

Big Increase in Port of Houston Steel Cargoes

More steel moved across the docks in July than any month since 2008, Executive Director Roger Guenther reported at the recent meeting of the Port Commission of the Port of Houston Authority.

Container Ships

Latest Ocean-Going Shipbuilding Orders

Clarkson Hellas notes in its latest 'S&P Weekly Bulletin' shipbuilding orders placed in the dry bulk, tankship, gas carrier and containership sectors, as follows: Dry

Euronav Books Profit from Sale of Chartered Ship

The owner of the 157,258 dwt containership Cap Isabella (built 2013), a vessel which Euronav had on bareboat charter, decided to sell the vessel to an unrelated third party.

Storm Surge Halts Vessel Operations at Long Beach

Two cargo terminals at the Port of Long Beach announced Wednesday, Aug. 27, that they were suspending vessel operations for the day because 10- to 15-foot high

Logistics

Big Increase in Port of Houston Steel Cargoes

More steel moved across the docks in July than any month since 2008, Executive Director Roger Guenther reported at the recent meeting of the Port Commission of the Port of Houston Authority.

Storm Surge Halts Vessel Operations at Long Beach

Two cargo terminals at the Port of Long Beach announced Wednesday, Aug. 27, that they were suspending vessel operations for the day because 10- to 15-foot high

Port of New Orleans Sponsors Agricultural Summit

The Port of New Orleans has signed on as a sponsor for the 9th annual Oilseed & Grain Trade Summit, taking place here October 7-9, 2014, at the Hyatt Regency New Orleans.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Offshore Oil Pipelines Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Simulators Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1644 sec (6 req/sec)