Tanker Market Outlook: 2011–2015

Thursday, January 20, 2011

According to a McQuilling Services Outlook report for 2011-2015, global economic recovery is underway, supported by robust emerging markets growth. Expectations are for a continuation of this trajectory in 2011, leading to increased oil demand, but risks to the downside still exist, particularly in the area of sovereign debt. Tanker demand recovered in 2010 and will increase on the back of increased oil demand. The patterns of trade are changing however, leading to new routes and deployment considerations.

Spot freight markets increased in 2010 over 2009, in line with our expectations and our 2010 forecast was within 1.2% of actual market levels for the year. Bunker prices were 6.5% higher than forecast but our TCE revenue expectations on VLCCs were within US$ 600 per day of the $30,800 observed in this sector. MR2 tonnage fared about 20% better than we expected, averaging about $8,500 per day on a round-trip basis.

Bulging orderbooks are still a worry for the industry but a surprisingly large number of delays and cancellations mitigated their effect last year and will undoubtedly lessen their impact this year. The IMO 13G phase-out requirement is past however, taking 150+ vessels last year, so we expect no relief from the exit profile in 2011. Net fleet growth is still positive across tanker sectors and spot freight rates for the next few years will remain pressured. We expect a recovery towards the end of the forecast period as the shipping cycle recovers. Asset prices are currently felt to be overvalued and due for a correction. Traditional ship finance remains tight for a second year but transactions are being concluded and alternative forms of funding have been employed.

This is the backdrop against which firms must develop some basis for the planning of their future business activities and for projecting their performance. This brief presents the McQuilling Services Outlook over 11 tanker trade routes for eight tanker sectors through 2015. A discussion on the global economic context for the Outlook, methodology and quantitative results is included.

www.mcquilling.com

Maritime Reporter March 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Tanker Trends

Pirates Approach Tanker in Bab El Mandeb

The U.S. Navy Maritime Liaison Office in Bahrain (MARLO) has advised that on or about 12:30 UTC on 14 April, the Master of an oil tanker reported being approached by a white-blue skiff in position 12.

Shippers Turn to Equity Markets as Sector Eyes Recovery

Shipping companies are turning to equity markets to fill a growing funding gap, betting that investors hungry for decent returns will provide capital to a sector

YPF Tenders to Buy Fuel Oil for June

State-run oil company YPF launched its second fuel oil tender in April, this time to buy two 50,000 metric ton cargoes (some 375,000 barrels each) to be received

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Pod Propulsion Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.0945 sec (11 req/sec)