Tankship Overcapacity Blights the Market

Press Release/Drewry Maritime Research
Thursday, June 06, 2013

With seasonally weak demand in the second quarter, the short-term view for freight rates does not look positive finds Drewry.

Global oil demand declined by 1.0% in the first quarter of the year to 89.9 million bpd, although some recovery in demand is likely in the second half of the year based on seasonal demand, which will push overall tonnage demand higher by 2% in 2013.

This will be countered by a continuing supply of fresh tonnage through the year. With 46 million dwt already added since 2010 and a further 17.1 million dwt (4%) due this year, utilisation will be poor and freight rates will not show any noticeable signs of recovery.
There is a glimmer of hope for the longer term from the slowdown in ordering and the gradual global economic recovery. Utilisation will improve from 2014 onwards and shift in trade patterns will also lend some support to rates as voyage lengths increase.

Crude oil shipping from production growth centres such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East to the emerging refinery capacity in Asia is likely to increase gradually, whereas shipments to the US and Europe will tail off. This will be further driven by the shrinking margins in European refineries, and increased domestic production and stagnant refinery capacity in the USA.

Drewry expects tanker demand to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of about 5% through to 2018, reaching 420 million dwt. Tanker owners are likely to see improved conditions from 2014 onwards once the existing phase of overcapacity eases, with improved demand and some slowdown in supply growth. However, if current attractive newbuild prices prompt excessive ordering, the market might not break the cycle of overcapacity for a long time, delaying any hopes of recovery.

“Tanker Forecaster” is a quarterly report published by Drewry Maritime Research.

www.drewry.co.uk
 

Maritime Reporter July 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Contracts

Ecuador Coastguard Orders Damen Patrol Boats

Damen announced it has recently signed a contract with AstillerosNavalesEcuatorianos (Astinave) to construct two Damen Stan Patrols (Spa) 5009 for the Ecuadorian Coastguard.

LNG America Selects Topside Designer for LNG Bunker Barge

LNG America has selected Taylor-Wharton to commence the front-end engineering and design work for the cryogenic topside of the company’s 3,000 cubic meter Gemini

Lithuania Inks First Statoil LNG Deal

Lithuania seeks to cut dependence on Russia; Statoil to supply 0.54 bcm of gas per year. This will cover about 20 pct of Lithuania's demand. Lithuania signed

Tanker Trends

Second Tanker Waits to Load Oil at Libya's Reopened Port

A second tanker is waiting to load oil at Libya's Es Sider port, state-run National Oil Corp (NOC) said on Thursday, as the country's biggest crude export terminal

Mozambique: $30b Invested for 2018 LNG Export

More than $30 billion will be invested initially in Mozambique's natural gas sector to build capacity to produce 20 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG),

The World's Most Expensive Jones Act Tanker

The series highlighting the world's most expensive active vessels from online ship intelligence and information service VesselsValue.com focuses this week on the most expensive tanker vessel,

Finance

Mozambique: $30b Invested for 2018 LNG Export

More than $30 billion will be invested initially in Mozambique's natural gas sector to build capacity to produce 20 million tonnes per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG),

Cuba Struggles to Attract Investors Despite Reforms

Cuba has yet to attract new foreign investors despite launching two major initiatives in the past year, a sign of the lingering caution over doing business with

Swedish Club Results Show Improvement

The Swedish Club today announced its half-year results in which it reported that the club continued to demonstrate a solid performance in the first six months of

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Naval Architecture Pipelines Port Authority Salvage Ship Repair Ship Simulators Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2023 sec (5 req/sec)