Tankship Overcapacity Blights the Market

Press Release/Drewry Maritime Research
Thursday, June 06, 2013

With seasonally weak demand in the second quarter, the short-term view for freight rates does not look positive finds Drewry.

Global oil demand declined by 1.0% in the first quarter of the year to 89.9 million bpd, although some recovery in demand is likely in the second half of the year based on seasonal demand, which will push overall tonnage demand higher by 2% in 2013.

This will be countered by a continuing supply of fresh tonnage through the year. With 46 million dwt already added since 2010 and a further 17.1 million dwt (4%) due this year, utilisation will be poor and freight rates will not show any noticeable signs of recovery.
There is a glimmer of hope for the longer term from the slowdown in ordering and the gradual global economic recovery. Utilisation will improve from 2014 onwards and shift in trade patterns will also lend some support to rates as voyage lengths increase.

Crude oil shipping from production growth centres such as Latin America, Africa and the Middle East to the emerging refinery capacity in Asia is likely to increase gradually, whereas shipments to the US and Europe will tail off. This will be further driven by the shrinking margins in European refineries, and increased domestic production and stagnant refinery capacity in the USA.

Drewry expects tanker demand to increase at a compounded annual growth rate of about 5% through to 2018, reaching 420 million dwt. Tanker owners are likely to see improved conditions from 2014 onwards once the existing phase of overcapacity eases, with improved demand and some slowdown in supply growth. However, if current attractive newbuild prices prompt excessive ordering, the market might not break the cycle of overcapacity for a long time, delaying any hopes of recovery.

“Tanker Forecaster” is a quarterly report published by Drewry Maritime Research.

www.drewry.co.uk
 

Maritime Reporter June 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Contracts

ISS Inks Service Pact with Technip

Inchcape Shipping Services (ISS) and Techniphave signed a contract to provide marine agency services and logistics for the Rashid C project in the Middle East. Currently

Hercules-2 Officially Launched

MAN Diesel & Turbo, Wärtsilä and Winterthur Gas & Diesel to collaborate on major, EU-funded project.   A major cross-industry initiative led by MAN Diesel & Turbo,

ST Marine Launches First LMV for RSN

Singapore Technologies Marine Ltd (ST Marine), the marine arm of Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd (ST Engineering), held the Launching ceremony for the first

Tanker Trends

FSL Trust Inks Tanker Contracts

FSL Trust Management Pte. Ltd., as trustee-manager of First Ship Lease Trust announced new time charter agreements for FSL Shanghai, FSL Hamburg and FSL Singapore.

Proforma DAs on the Go

DA-Desk has launched a new service under its PortSpend ManagementTM solution, the Proforma Disbursement Account (PDA) Approval Mobile App. The mobile app is available

CMES Rides High on Hope

China Merchants Energy Shipping (CMES), a Chinese international oil tanker operator, projects doubled profit in the first half of 2015 from a year ago.    The

Finance

Buoys in Disputed Waters Roil South China Sea Dispute

Buoys stretched "as far as eye could see" - Philippine sailor. The Philippine navy recently found a large steel marker bearing Chinese inscriptions and hundreds

Navis N4 TOS Open in Liverpool Terminal

Peel Ports, owners and operators of the Port of Liverpool, has achieved a major milestone in its multi-million investment program to transform the port into Europe’s

AkzoNobel’s Carbon Credits Methodology Wins Award

AkzoNobel’s landmark carbon credits methodology for the shipping industry has won the Best Offsetting Project award in the 2015 Voluntary Carbon Market Rankings.

 
 
Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pod Propulsion Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1936 sec (5 req/sec)