Latin America will account for half of the projected floating production Capex over the next five years according to a new Douglas-Westwood report. DW director Steve Robertson commented, “The dominance of this region is largely due to local Brazilian operators Petrobras and OGX plans to massively increase
their fleets of floating production systems. A key driver is Petrobras’s multi-FPS developments in its pre-salt fields in the Campos and Santos basins. We forecast that Latin American Capex for the 2012-2016 period will total $34bn, with 50 FPS deployments, a huge growth on the $12.5bn spent during the previous five-years.”
Douglas-Westwood’s latest edition of the World Floating Production Market Forecast details the considerable opportunities in the sector, examines the commercial, economic and geographical factors of influence and forecasts a total of 134 installations over the 2012-2016 period, representing a global Capex of $68bn.
“The deepwater basins off West Africa, Brazil and in the US Gulf of Mexico have become established as the focus areas for FPS developments. Africa is the second most important region, although only accounting for 18% of forecast spend, compared to 50% for Latin America. Like Latin America, a large proportion of the African installations will take place in deepwater. North American spend from 2012-2016 is muted, with less activity forecast than for Asia or Western Europe,” he said.
“Douglas-Westwood’s forecast of total global installations represent a 37% increase on the 2007-2011 period (when there were 98) and a corresponding increase of 81% in expenditure,” noted Lucy Miller, the lead author of the report. “The disparity between the two percentages is a reflection of factors such as a larger proportion of newbuilds and conversions compared to redeployments, a greater degree of local content raising the cost of relevant equipment and services and cost inflation.
“FPSOs will continue to dominate the sector, with 81% of forecast global FPS spend. For the first time, our forecasts include a breakdown of FPS by component and associated spend. Expenditure on the hull is a considerable proportion of Capex – on average 25% of an FPSO and around 35% for other FPS types.
”The bottom line is that sector is set for massive growth,” she concluded.