The Market - Global Floating Production Capex to Double.
Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast that between 2013 and 2017 $91bn will be spent on floating production systems (FPS) – an increase of 100% over the preceding five-year period. This growth is driven by factors such as a larger proportion of newbuilds and conversions compared to redeployments, a greater degree of local content resulting in increased costs and general offshore industry cost inflation.
Floating Production is firmly established as a cost-effective method of developing oil and gas fields around the world. In water depths beyond 500m floating production systems become one of the few options open to operators, an increasingly important factor as production moves into deeper waters. DW forecast that 63% of global FPS market spend will be in deep waters.
FPSOs represent by far the largest segment of the market both in numbers (94 installations) and forecast Capex (80%) over the 2013-2017 period. FPSSs account for the second largest segment of Capex (10%), followed by TLPs, then spars.
Latin America accounts for 29% of the forecast installations and 37% of the projected Capex. Most installations to date have been in Petrobras-operated fields off Brazil and this is likely to continue, albeit substantial delays are expected for Petrobras’ offshore E&P investment. Asia is the next most important region in numerical terms (24), but Africa is so in terms of forecast Capex ($18.2bn).
Modelling & Forecast Generation
Analysis is based on DW’s in-house Oil & Gas database which details around 1,000 FPS projects. The data feeds into the market model to generate forecasts of floating production systems in each region of the world. Expenditure is allocated both to year of order and year of installation.
Douglas-Westwood’s Floating Production Market Forecast 2013-2017 contains analysis of:
• Capex – from 2008 to 2017, broken down by various components including hull, topside modules and mooring systems.
• FPS type – FPSOs, FPSSs, TLPs and Spars
• Regional analysis – Africa, Asia, Australasia, Latin America, Middle East, North America and Western Europe
• Operator analysis – breakdown of Capex for the leading FPS operators historically and forecast and by region
• Deepwater – by FPS type and region
• Order year analysis – Capex by order year
• The FPS supply chain – detailed analysis of the FPS supply chain, examining the small independent companies that provide specialist components and services, through to the multi-national companies that offer large-scale facilities
• Leasing & financing – a discussion of the issues and future outlook for financing of the sector; an analysis of major leasing contractors and their assets and a review of prospective vessel redeployments
Why purchase the World Floating Production Market Forecast?
Now in its 11th edition, this highly regarded and established report has been tracking and analyzing the industry for over a decade. Douglas-Westwood’s market analysis, commentary and understanding are strengthened by extensive insight gained from strategy and consultancy work undertaken for major companies throughout the industry.