Ship Scrapping Increases, but in Wrong Trades

Posted by George Backwell
Monday, May 19, 2014
File image

Although the number of vessels being scrapped this year has increased dramatically, and looks set to continue rising, it is having little impact on the current excess of supply over demand where it matters most – in the East-West trades, according to the latest edition of Drewry's 'Container Insight Weekly'.

All of the vessels scrapped so far remain below 6,000 teu, whereas the worst excess is in the sector over 10,000 teu, where most vessels are deployed between Asia and Europe. This means that unwanted ULCVs will continue to be cascaded into other routes, thereby maintaining pressure on freight rates.

Out of the 73 vessels scrapped up to the end of April, only seven were post-Panamax ships between 5,000-5,999 teu, with the rest being below 4,999 teu, which position has changed little since   The average size of vessel demolished over the four month period only reached 2,855 teu, compared to 2,288 teu over the whole of 2013, 1,868 teu in 2012 and 1,293 teu in 2011. In other words, only vessels deployed in fast growing North-South and intra-regional trades are being scrapped, which is not immediately relevant to East-West services.

Moreover, the amount of vessel capacity being scrapped still remains small compared to the total fleet capacity in service. Even if the current rate of scrapping were to be continued over the rest of the year, less than 4% of the world cellular fleet would be scrapped in 2014.

When analysing the subject, the temptation is to simply compare global cargo growth, which is not expected to exceed 5% this year, with global fleet growth, which will probably be somewhere between 5-6%, making this demolition rate look meaningful. For example, a hefty 40% of vessel capacity growth so far this year has been offset by demolitions.

But the comparison overlooks the uneven way that excess vessel capacity is being delivered. just over 50% of all newbuild capacity brought into service since the beginning of 2011 has been provided by vessels over 10,000 teu deployed on East-West routes.  The average provided by vessels below 5,000 teu, where most scrapping has been taking place, is just 17%. Moreover, the capacity of all vessels scrapped last year (i.e. less than 6,000 teu) only more-or-less equated to the newbuild capacity injected by vessels less than 6,000 teu.

The position is not expected to get any better soon, as 55% of all newbuild capacity on order up to the end of 2016 consists of vessels over 10,000 teu, and the world cellular fleet is expected to grow by 20% during the period, ignoring further demolitions and delivery postponements. Although some of the vessels between 6,000 -9,000 teu that they will displace will quickly fit into North-South routes, the majority won’t due to draught restrictions in such places as Africa, India, and South America. Dredging takes time due to environmental considerations alone.

Drewry's View
Current scrapping alone will not be enough to meaningfully address the current imbalance between supply and demand in East-West trades. As long as only ships below 6,000 teu continue to be demolished, North-South trades will be the sole beneficiaries.
 
Source: Drewry Maritime Research –  Container Insight Weekly

Maritime Reporter June 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

New Binding Law of The Sea Agreement Advanced

WOC Sustainable Ocean Summit (Singapore, 9-11 November 2015) Will Enable Industry to Organize its Input to this Major New Ocean Treaty Development The U.N.

Oceans Can’t Take Any more: Researchers Fear Fundamental Change

Our oceans need an immediate and substantial reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. If that doesn’t happen, we could see far-reaching and largely

Teekay LNG Partners Declares Distribution

Teekay GP LLC, the general partner of Teekay LNG Partners L.P. has declared a cash distribution of $0.70 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2015. The cash distribution is payable on August 14,

Contracts

Teekay LNG Partners Declares Distribution

Teekay GP LLC, the general partner of Teekay LNG Partners L.P. has declared a cash distribution of $0.70 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2015. The cash distribution is payable on August 14,

Fjords Processing Bags Johan Sverdrup Contracts

Fjords Processing, headquartered in Norway (Fornebu), has won three contracts for the deliveries of process systems for the Johan Sverdrup development in the North Sea.

Ocean Safety, Richard Irvin Marine Safety Merger

Ocean Safety has today announced the merger with Richard Irvin Energy Solutions Marine Safety Division and their Aberdeen branch.   This merger follows the

Ship Sales

Greek Shipping Mulls Cyprus Move

Greek shipping companies are looking into moving to Cyprus due to the instability and uncertainty in Greece, it emerged, reports Cyprus News Agency.   The director

Uni Asia Forms New Subsidiary and Buy a New Vessel

Uni-Asia Holdings Limited has acquired a new wholly owned Panama-incorporated company known as Fortuna Containership S.A. as a ship owning subsidiary for the purpose of acquiring a 3,

Box Ships Enters Financial Deal

Athens-based Box Ships has announced that it has secured a two year extension on a loan facility with ABN Amro, which was scheduled to mature next month.   Following this extension,

Container Ships

Greek Shipping Mulls Cyprus Move

Greek shipping companies are looking into moving to Cyprus due to the instability and uncertainty in Greece, it emerged, reports Cyprus News Agency.   The director

Maersk Returns to the Port of Baltimore

Maryland Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford, along with congressional, state and local officials, officially welcomed Denmark-based Maersk Line, part of the Maersk Group

Container Equipment Costs at Record Low

Low material costs and stable demand has driven the price of new container equipment down to record lows where it is forecast to stay, according to the latest edition

Vessels

New Binding Law of The Sea Agreement Advanced

WOC Sustainable Ocean Summit (Singapore, 9-11 November 2015) Will Enable Industry to Organize its Input to this Major New Ocean Treaty Development The U.N.

Teekay LNG Partners Declares Distribution

Teekay GP LLC, the general partner of Teekay LNG Partners L.P. has declared a cash distribution of $0.70 per unit for the quarter ended June 30, 2015. The cash distribution is payable on August 14,

Fjords Processing Bags Johan Sverdrup Contracts

Fjords Processing, headquartered in Norway (Fornebu), has won three contracts for the deliveries of process systems for the Johan Sverdrup development in the North Sea.

Consulting

New Record Year in Dry Bulk Demolition Underway - BIMCO

The monthly average for the first six months in 2015 is 3.3m DWT. In 2014 the first half year averaged at 1.33m DWT per month.   April 2015 saw 5.36 million DWT being retired from active service,

BMT Awarded Port Geographe Coastal Engineering Contract

BMT JFA Consultants (BMT), a subsidiary of BMT Group,  has been awarded a contract by the Western Australian Department of Transport (DoT) to provide services as

Beier Radio is now Beier Integrated Systems

For 70 years, Beier Radio has provided engineering, sales, and service for marine electronics around the globe. As the corporation marks its 70th anniversary,

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Simulators
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2921 sec (3 req/sec)