World Fleet Set to Change: DNV's Shipping 2020 Scenario

Press Release
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime, Oil & Gas: Photo credit DNV

DNV’s Shipping 2020 scenario explores technology uptake based on market forces, regulatory changes, fuel prices, technology costs & specific shipowner requirements.

Based on expected market developments, regulatory changes, fuel prices, cost and availability of new technology and specific shipowner requirements, the model explores the technologies with the best payoff that will also ensure compliance with the relevant environmental requirements.

Economic power is shifting to Asia, impacting trade routes and the demand for vessels. Gas and oil prices are expected to decouple, and shale gas is a game changer likely to increase gas availability. Amidst these and other market forces, four different scenarios for the future are evaluated.

“With the world economy in a fragile condition, it is not only financial analysts, bankers and policy makers who want to know what the world will look like towards the end of this decade. The shipping community is, quite rightly, asking the same questions,” says Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime and Oil and Gas. “Predicting the future is a risky business. However, our objective is to share our views on technology uptake towards 2020, and beyond, and to stimulate both discussion and correct decision-making.”

The use of scrubbers may be minimal until the global SOx limit is implemented. The ECAs is not expected to drive a significant number of scrubbers. However shipowners may make room for a scrubber in ships built between now and 2019, but they are likely to defer the installation itself until the technology has matured further and the global sulphur limit is confirmed.

Delays in the ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention are simply expected to create a larger backlog of technology orders with little variation in the phasing in time of the technology. The main peak for technology uptake comes in 2017 and will be driven to a large extent by US regulations. After 2019, retrofitting is expected to be largely completed, unless the IMO decides to relax the schedule.

The EEDI (Energy Efficient Design Index) regulation requires newbuildings in 2025 to be 30% more energy efficient than today’s average ship. This will drive implementation of energy efficiency measures and LNG as fuel. The question remains whether shipowners will press ahead of the EEDI schedule and start building these ships today.

Other key findings within DNV’s Shipping 2020 report are:
    •    More than 1 in 10 newbuildings in the next eight years will be delivered with gas fuelled engines.
    •    In 2020, the demand for marine distillates could be as high as 200-250 million tonnes annually.
    •    Newbuildings in 2020 will emit up to 35 per cent less CO2 than today’s ships.
    •    At least 30 per cent of newbuildings will be fitted with exhaust gas recovery or selecive catalytic reduction systems by 2016.

The report is authored by DNV's Per Wiggo Richardsen.

Maritime Reporter October 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds


HMS Protector Deployed to Antarctic

Ice ship HMS Protector is heading for waters no Royal Navy vessel has visited in 80 years as she begins a marathon deployment to Antarctica. The Plymouth-based

Newport News Shipbuilding Converts to Natural Gas

Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) announced today that its Newport News Shipbuilding division has converted its steam-generation plant from heavy fuel oil, also known as Bunker C,

Wärtsilä 31 Engine for Aker ARC 124 Icebreaker

The recently introduced Wärtsilä 31 engine, which has been acknowledged by Guinness World Records as being the world's most efficient four-stroke diesel engine,

Marine Power

Creole Spirit Sets Sail for Sea Trials

Teekay’s first M-type, Electronically Controlled, Gas Injection (MEGI)-powered LNG vessel, Creole Spirit, has sailed out from the Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering

Chevron Cylinder Oil Gains NOL from Wärtsilä

Chevron Marine Lubricants’ 100BN cylinder oil, Taro Special HT 100 has received approval for its use in another engine range – products made by Winterthur Gas & Diesel Ltd.

Volvo Penta Doubles Service Interval

Volvo Penta today announced a new extended service interval for its commercial marine diesel engines.   Under the new program, owners can double the maximum oil change interval to 1,

Ballast Water Treatment

AWO Calls on Congress for Vessel Discharges Bill

A federal appeals court ruling handed down this week underscores the urgent need for Congress to pass the Vessel Incidental Discharge Act (VIDA) and establish a

US Orders EPA to Rewrite Ship Ballast Water Dumping Rules

A federal appeals court in New York ordered the government to rewrite its rules regulating the discharge of ballast water by ships, in a victory for environmental

Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Naval Architecture Offshore Oil Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1954 sec (5 req/sec)