World Fleet Set to Change: DNV's Shipping 2020 Scenario

Press Release
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime, Oil & Gas: Photo credit DNV

DNV’s Shipping 2020 scenario explores technology uptake based on market forces, regulatory changes, fuel prices, technology costs & specific shipowner requirements.

Based on expected market developments, regulatory changes, fuel prices, cost and availability of new technology and specific shipowner requirements, the model explores the technologies with the best payoff that will also ensure compliance with the relevant environmental requirements.

Economic power is shifting to Asia, impacting trade routes and the demand for vessels. Gas and oil prices are expected to decouple, and shale gas is a game changer likely to increase gas availability. Amidst these and other market forces, four different scenarios for the future are evaluated.

“With the world economy in a fragile condition, it is not only financial analysts, bankers and policy makers who want to know what the world will look like towards the end of this decade. The shipping community is, quite rightly, asking the same questions,” says Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime and Oil and Gas. “Predicting the future is a risky business. However, our objective is to share our views on technology uptake towards 2020, and beyond, and to stimulate both discussion and correct decision-making.”

The use of scrubbers may be minimal until the global SOx limit is implemented. The ECAs is not expected to drive a significant number of scrubbers. However shipowners may make room for a scrubber in ships built between now and 2019, but they are likely to defer the installation itself until the technology has matured further and the global sulphur limit is confirmed.

Delays in the ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention are simply expected to create a larger backlog of technology orders with little variation in the phasing in time of the technology. The main peak for technology uptake comes in 2017 and will be driven to a large extent by US regulations. After 2019, retrofitting is expected to be largely completed, unless the IMO decides to relax the schedule.

The EEDI (Energy Efficient Design Index) regulation requires newbuildings in 2025 to be 30% more energy efficient than today’s average ship. This will drive implementation of energy efficiency measures and LNG as fuel. The question remains whether shipowners will press ahead of the EEDI schedule and start building these ships today.

Other key findings within DNV’s Shipping 2020 report are:
    •    More than 1 in 10 newbuildings in the next eight years will be delivered with gas fuelled engines.
    •    In 2020, the demand for marine distillates could be as high as 200-250 million tonnes annually.
    •    Newbuildings in 2020 will emit up to 35 per cent less CO2 than today’s ships.
    •    At least 30 per cent of newbuildings will be fitted with exhaust gas recovery or selecive catalytic reduction systems by 2016.

The report is authored by DNV's Per Wiggo Richardsen.

Maritime Reporter April 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Technology

Chinese Submarine to Pakistan: Raising Nuclear Tensions in South Asia

Pakistan, a country plagued by economic and political insecurity, to conclude the deal of eight conventional submarines during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Islamabad on Monday (April 20),

Variable Bore Rams is 35

Variable Bore Rams, Inc. (VBR), one of the largest original equipment manufacturer (OEM) ram and BOP component providers in the world, is celebrating its 35th

Taylor to Chair NOIA Board

The National Ocean Industries Association (NOIA) Board of Directors has elected Cindy B. Taylor as Chair and Kevin McEvoy as Vice Chairman for the upcoming 2015-2016 term.

Marine Power

Taiwan's Yang Ming Marine to Add Bigger Vessels to its Fleet

Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation, Taiwnanese global shipping and logistics services company,  will take delivery of 14 large-sized ships over the next two years,

USN Names Littoral Combat Ship

Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus announced today that the next Freedom-variant littoral combat ship (LCS) will be named USS St. Louis. The future USS St. Louis,

2 Damen Tugs for KOTUG’s European Harbor Towage

Damen Shipyards Group delivered two sister tugs ATD 2412 ‘ZP Bison’ and ‘ZP Bear’ to strengthen KOTUG’s European Harbour Towage. On April 8th 2015, the sister

Ballast Water Treatment

Damen Installs BWT System to Cable Innovator

Global Marine Systems Limited’s vessel Cable Innovator has recently left Damen Shiprepair Dunkerque (part of Damen Shiprepair & Conversion) after extensive work

Fednav Orders 12 Ballast Water Treatment Systems

Fednav Limited, a Canadian operator of international ships in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Seaway system, announced an order for 12 ballast water treatment systems

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Pipelines Pod Propulsion Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2622 sec (4 req/sec)