World Fleet Set to Change: DNV's Shipping 2020 Scenario

Press Release
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime, Oil & Gas: Photo credit DNV

DNV’s Shipping 2020 scenario explores technology uptake based on market forces, regulatory changes, fuel prices, technology costs & specific shipowner requirements.

Based on expected market developments, regulatory changes, fuel prices, cost and availability of new technology and specific shipowner requirements, the model explores the technologies with the best payoff that will also ensure compliance with the relevant environmental requirements.

Economic power is shifting to Asia, impacting trade routes and the demand for vessels. Gas and oil prices are expected to decouple, and shale gas is a game changer likely to increase gas availability. Amidst these and other market forces, four different scenarios for the future are evaluated.

“With the world economy in a fragile condition, it is not only financial analysts, bankers and policy makers who want to know what the world will look like towards the end of this decade. The shipping community is, quite rightly, asking the same questions,” says Tor Svensen, president of DNV Maritime and Oil and Gas. “Predicting the future is a risky business. However, our objective is to share our views on technology uptake towards 2020, and beyond, and to stimulate both discussion and correct decision-making.”

The use of scrubbers may be minimal until the global SOx limit is implemented. The ECAs is not expected to drive a significant number of scrubbers. However shipowners may make room for a scrubber in ships built between now and 2019, but they are likely to defer the installation itself until the technology has matured further and the global sulphur limit is confirmed.

Delays in the ratification of the Ballast Water Management Convention are simply expected to create a larger backlog of technology orders with little variation in the phasing in time of the technology. The main peak for technology uptake comes in 2017 and will be driven to a large extent by US regulations. After 2019, retrofitting is expected to be largely completed, unless the IMO decides to relax the schedule.

The EEDI (Energy Efficient Design Index) regulation requires newbuildings in 2025 to be 30% more energy efficient than today’s average ship. This will drive implementation of energy efficiency measures and LNG as fuel. The question remains whether shipowners will press ahead of the EEDI schedule and start building these ships today.

Other key findings within DNV’s Shipping 2020 report are:
    •    More than 1 in 10 newbuildings in the next eight years will be delivered with gas fuelled engines.
    •    In 2020, the demand for marine distillates could be as high as 200-250 million tonnes annually.
    •    Newbuildings in 2020 will emit up to 35 per cent less CO2 than today’s ships.
    •    At least 30 per cent of newbuildings will be fitted with exhaust gas recovery or selecive catalytic reduction systems by 2016.

The report is authored by DNV's Per Wiggo Richardsen.

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter May 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Technology

Tech & Design Solutions for Modern Workboats

EPA Tier 4 regulations (for engines of 804 hp and higher) and propulsion advancements have many manufacturers and vessel designers changing course to adapt to new requirements and customer demands.

Meet the Future Surveyor

Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO Maritime, DNV GL discusses the future of class   DNV GL is now integrated and fully armed to address the challenges of the day. Drones

Kongsberg Tech for Peruvian Arctic Research Vessel

Kongsberg Maritime has been chosen to deliver an integrated subsea technology systems package including two HUGIN Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUV) for a new

Marine Propulsion

Tech & Design Solutions for Modern Workboats

EPA Tier 4 regulations (for engines of 804 hp and higher) and propulsion advancements have many manufacturers and vessel designers changing course to adapt to new requirements and customer demands.

WSS: Post-combustion Fuel Treatment Cuts Vessel Costs, Risk

Wilhelmsen Ships Service, a provider of products and services to the shipping industry, is advising vessel operators to wage war on soot. According to WSS, soot

Port of Caen Orders Damen ASD Tug 2810

The Port of Caen/Chamber of Commerce & Industry Caen Normandy (Chambre de Commerce et d’industrie de Caen Normandie) has placed an order for a Damen ASD Tug 2810.

Marine Power

Tech & Design Solutions for Modern Workboats

EPA Tier 4 regulations (for engines of 804 hp and higher) and propulsion advancements have many manufacturers and vessel designers changing course to adapt to new requirements and customer demands.

MAN Bags Danaos Shipping Propeller Order

MAN Diesel & Turbo has won the order to supply Danaos Shipping Co. Ltd. with fixed pitch Kappel propellers, propeller boss caps with fins, and Engine Power Limitation

Dubai Partners with WOC on Ocean Sustainable Dwevelopment

The Dubai Council on Marine and Maritime Industries (DCMMI) and the World Ocean Council (WOC) have agreed to collaborate on ocean sustainable development and corporate ocean responsibility.

Ballast Water Treatment

BWTS Refit for Netherlands Naval Vessels

The Defense Material Organization has awarded three contracts to Goltens Worldwide’s Green Technologies business unit for the engineering and turnkey installation

PureBallast Nears Completion of USCG Testing Procedures

Alfa Laval saiys it continues to move swiftly towards the submission of a U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) type approval application for Alfa Laval PureBallast 3.1. The

New Rules for Ballast Water Management in Australia

Since July 2001, all ships entering Australian ports or waters from overseas have been subject to Australia’s national ballast water management requirements.   These

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Salvage Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.0759 sec (13 req/sec)