Due to declining domestic crude oil production and rising oil demand, crude imports will continue to increase over the next two decades accounting for 64 percent of U.S. oil supplies
by 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration
(EIA) said in its annual long-term energy outlook. Currently, the U.S. imports 52 percent, or 8.6 million bpd of its oil and domestic oil output at 6 million bpd is at its lowest level since the early 1950s. U.S. petroleum consumption is projected to rise an average 1.3 percent annually over the next two decades, growing from the current 19.4 million bpd to 25.1 million bpd by 2020, EIA said.
Although world crude oil prices have more than doubled since the beginning of 1999, price increase are expected to moderate in the longer-term, reaching $22.04 (in 1998 dollars) in 2020, compared with the current $23 a barrel. Technology improvements, particularly in offshore oil production, will lead to increased non-OPEC oil output and therefore will keep energy prices in check, the agency said.