IEA: Unconventional Oil Revolution to Spread by End of Decade

By Eric Haun
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Photo courtesy of IEA

IEA five-year oil market outlook also sees global demand growth losing momentum

The IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 will be officially launched during a Press webinar on Tuesday, June 17, 2014, 11 a.m. Paris time. In addition, a web-based technical briefing will take place on June 17, at 16:30 Paris time where journalists will have an opportunity to put questions to the team that produced the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014. To register for these events please contact the IEA Press Office at ieapressoffice@iea.org

The unconventional supply revolution that has redrawn the global oil map will likely expand beyond North America before the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in its annual five-year oil market outlook released today. The report also sees global oil demand growth slowing, OPEC capacity growth facing headwinds, and growing regional imbalances in gasoline and diesel markets.

The IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 says that while no single country outside the United States offers the unique mix of above- and below-ground attributes that made the shale and light, tight oil (LTO) boom possible, several countries will seek to replicate the US success story. The report projects that by 2019, tight oil supply outside the United States could reach 650 000 barrels per day (650 kb/d), including 390 kb/d from Canada, 100 kb/d from Russia and 90 kb/d from Argentina. US LTO output is forecast to roughly double from 2013 levels to 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2019.

“We are continuing to see unprecedented production growth from North America, and the United States in particular. By the end of the decade, North America will have the capacity to become a net exporter of oil liquids,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said as she launched the report in Paris. “At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity.”

Ageing fields are an issue for almost all OPEC producers, but above-ground woes have escalated: security concerns are a growing issue in several producers and investment risks have deterred some international oil companies. The report notes that as much as three-fifths of OPEC’s expected growth in capacity by 2019 is set to come from Iraq. The projected addition of 1.28 mb/d to Iraqi production by 2019, a conservative forecast made before the launch last week of a military campaign by insurgents that subsequently claimed several key cities in northern and central Iraq, faces considerable downside risk.

The annual report, which gives a detailed analysis and five-year projections of oil demand, supply, crude trade, refining capacity and product supply, sees global demand rising by 1.3% per year to 99.1 mb/d in 2019. Yet the report also expects the market to hit an “inflexion point”, after which demand growth may start to decelerate due to high oil prices, environmental concerns and cheaper fuel alternatives. This will lead to fuel-switching away from oil, as well as overall fuel savings. In short, while “peak demand” for oil – other than in mature economies – may still be years away, and while there are regional differences, peak oil demand growth for the market as a whole is already in sight.

The Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 includes an updated forecast of product supply, which draws out the consequences of the shifts in demand, feedstock supply and refining capacity. Given planned refinery construction and the growth in supply that bypasses the refining sector, such as NGLs and biofuels, the refining industry faces a new cycle of weak margins and a glut of light distillates like gasoline and naphtha as a by-product of needed diesel and jet fuel.

The Medium-Term Oil Market Report is part of a series of annual reports the IEA devotes to each of the main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal, renewable energy and – as of last year – energy efficiency.
 

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter April 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

New Products

Alfa Laval HCO Filter Approved for Validation Testing

A manufacturer of two-stroke engines has agreed to validation tests of an Alfa Laval hydraulic control oil (HCO) filter . The approval to test the final HCO filter

Logimatic Launches 3D Vessel Performance Management Service

Logimatic has expanded the vessel reporting system and dynamic dashboards within its Sertica software package, to provide an improved level of visual presentation

IMTRA Unveils Clite2

IMTRA announced today its new high-output LED searchlight – the Colorlight CLite2. The Colorlight CLite2LED Searchlightfrom IMTRA is the first compact, high-output

Environmental

Kalmar Straddle Carriers for EUROGATE CT, Hamburg

Kalmar, part of Cargotec, is to deliver nine diesel-electric straddle carriers to EUROGATE, Europe's leading shipping line-independent container terminal operator,

ABB Transformers for the Most Powerful Wind Turbines

ABB will deploy 40 special transformers to equip wind turbines for an offshore wind farm in the Irish Sea. The MHI Vestas Offshore Wind turbines are 195 m (640

UNSC Highlights IMO's capacity-building work in Gulf of Guinea

IMO Secretary-General Kitack Lim has welcomed the Presidential Statement from the United Nations Security Council (S/PRST/2016/4) in which the Council strongly condemns acts of murder,

LNG

NASSCO Delivers First ECO Class Tanker for SEA-Vista

On Thursday, April 28, 2016, General Dynamics NASSCO delivered the first ship in a series of three ECO Class tankers currently under construction for SEA-Vista LLC.

Crowley to Christen 3rd LNG-ready Product Tanker

Crowley Maritime Corp. announced it will hold a christening ceremony Thursday, May 5 in New Orleans for the newly built Louisiana, the company’s third of four new Jones Act product tankers.

India Seeks Stake in Iran LNG Terminal

Indian Petroleum Minister Minister Dharmendra Pradhan says India has expressed interest in setting up an LNG terminal at Chahabar port in Iran to ship back home natural gas from Persian Gulf nation,

News

Transocean Posts Quarterly Profit on Cost Cutting

Offshore rig contractor Transocean Ltd posted a quarterly profit, compared with a year-earlier loss, as cost cutting helped counter a slump in crude oil prices.

Fisherman Medevaced off Gloucester Coast

A U.S. Coast Guard crew medevaced a 47-year-old fisherman suffering from chest pains off the coast of Gloucester, Mass.   Watchstanders at Sector Boston’s command

Port of Oakland Boosts Night, Weekend Work

Subsidy extended, largest marine terminal adds functions to night gates   A $1.5 million subsidy program to stimulate night and weekend business at the Port of Oakland has been extended.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Pod Propulsion Ship Electronics Ship Repair Ship Simulators
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1459 sec (7 req/sec)