IEA: Unconventional Oil Revolution to Spread by End of Decade

By Eric Haun
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Photo courtesy of IEA

IEA five-year oil market outlook also sees global demand growth losing momentum

The IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 will be officially launched during a Press webinar on Tuesday, June 17, 2014, 11 a.m. Paris time. In addition, a web-based technical briefing will take place on June 17, at 16:30 Paris time where journalists will have an opportunity to put questions to the team that produced the Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014. To register for these events please contact the IEA Press Office at ieapressoffice@iea.org

The unconventional supply revolution that has redrawn the global oil map will likely expand beyond North America before the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in its annual five-year oil market outlook released today. The report also sees global oil demand growth slowing, OPEC capacity growth facing headwinds, and growing regional imbalances in gasoline and diesel markets.

The IEA’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 says that while no single country outside the United States offers the unique mix of above- and below-ground attributes that made the shale and light, tight oil (LTO) boom possible, several countries will seek to replicate the US success story. The report projects that by 2019, tight oil supply outside the United States could reach 650 000 barrels per day (650 kb/d), including 390 kb/d from Canada, 100 kb/d from Russia and 90 kb/d from Argentina. US LTO output is forecast to roughly double from 2013 levels to 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2019.

“We are continuing to see unprecedented production growth from North America, and the United States in particular. By the end of the decade, North America will have the capacity to become a net exporter of oil liquids,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said as she launched the report in Paris. “At the same time, while OPEC remains a vital supplier to the market, it faces significant headwinds in expanding capacity.”

Ageing fields are an issue for almost all OPEC producers, but above-ground woes have escalated: security concerns are a growing issue in several producers and investment risks have deterred some international oil companies. The report notes that as much as three-fifths of OPEC’s expected growth in capacity by 2019 is set to come from Iraq. The projected addition of 1.28 mb/d to Iraqi production by 2019, a conservative forecast made before the launch last week of a military campaign by insurgents that subsequently claimed several key cities in northern and central Iraq, faces considerable downside risk.

The annual report, which gives a detailed analysis and five-year projections of oil demand, supply, crude trade, refining capacity and product supply, sees global demand rising by 1.3% per year to 99.1 mb/d in 2019. Yet the report also expects the market to hit an “inflexion point”, after which demand growth may start to decelerate due to high oil prices, environmental concerns and cheaper fuel alternatives. This will lead to fuel-switching away from oil, as well as overall fuel savings. In short, while “peak demand” for oil – other than in mature economies – may still be years away, and while there are regional differences, peak oil demand growth for the market as a whole is already in sight.

The Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2014 includes an updated forecast of product supply, which draws out the consequences of the shifts in demand, feedstock supply and refining capacity. Given planned refinery construction and the growth in supply that bypasses the refining sector, such as NGLs and biofuels, the refining industry faces a new cycle of weak margins and a glut of light distillates like gasoline and naphtha as a by-product of needed diesel and jet fuel.

The Medium-Term Oil Market Report is part of a series of annual reports the IEA devotes to each of the main primary energy sources: oil, gas, coal, renewable energy and – as of last year – energy efficiency.
 

Maritime Reporter May 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

New Products

LNG Vessel with Wartsila Integrated Solutions Delivered to Evergas

The first in a series of 27,500 cbm 'Dragon' class vessels ordered by Evergas, a world renowned owner and operator of seaborne petrochemical and liquid gas transport vessels,

VIKING’s Top Safety Offerings at Nor-Shipping

Marine safety equipment leader VIKING Life-Saving Equipment will appear in force at Nor-Shipping 2015, displaying both innovative products and services that

Keel Laid for Russia’s Next Generation Icebreaker

The world’s biggest nuclear-powered icebreaker keel laying ceremony took place of at the Baltic Shipyard on 26 May 2015. Heads of Atomfflot, the Baltic Shipyard

Environmental

6,000 Gallons of Diesel Spilt in Alaskan Gulf

Unified Command responding to cleanup aboard vessel in Seldovia, Alaska   A Unified Command consisting of representatives from the U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Department of the Interior,

US Orders Owner to Clean Up Ruptured Pipeline

Federal order ensures continued action on Santa Barbara County oil spill   The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Coast Guard issued a joint federal

Five Years on from Macondo

An interview with NOIA’s Randall Luthi provides unique perspective on where the offshore energy business has been, where it is now, and where it could be headed next.

Energy

Fluxys LNG Launches Zeebrugge Capacity Consultation

Belgian gas infrastructure operator Fluxys said on Thursday it was launching a market consultation to assess demand for additional capacity at the Zeebrugge liquefied natural gas terminal in Belgium.

US Orders Owner to Clean Up Ruptured Pipeline

Federal order ensures continued action on Santa Barbara County oil spill   The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Coast Guard issued a joint federal

Five Years on from Macondo

An interview with NOIA’s Randall Luthi provides unique perspective on where the offshore energy business has been, where it is now, and where it could be headed next.

LNG

Fluxys LNG Launches Zeebrugge Capacity Consultation

Belgian gas infrastructure operator Fluxys said on Thursday it was launching a market consultation to assess demand for additional capacity at the Zeebrugge liquefied natural gas terminal in Belgium.

Bids Placed for Novy Port Icebreaker Contract

Seven companies submit bids for contract for Yamal Novy Port terminal icebreaker   The tendering process for the Yamal Novy Port terminal icebreaker design and build contract has kicked off,

LNG Vessel with Wartsila Integrated Solutions Delivered to Evergas

The first in a series of 27,500 cbm 'Dragon' class vessels ordered by Evergas, a world renowned owner and operator of seaborne petrochemical and liquid gas transport vessels,

News

Lamprell to Implement Software for Automated Manufacturing

U.A.E based offshore jackup rig builder Lamprell Energy Ltd., will implement SSI's EnterprisePlatform software solution to allow its engineering team to automate manufacturing processes.

Israeli Dockworkers End Ports Strike

Israeli dockworkers ended a two-day strike on Thursday that had shut down the country's two main seaports in protest at the creation of new foreign-run ports.   Some 2,

Fluxys LNG Launches Zeebrugge Capacity Consultation

Belgian gas infrastructure operator Fluxys said on Thursday it was launching a market consultation to assess demand for additional capacity at the Zeebrugge liquefied natural gas terminal in Belgium.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Salvage Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2583 sec (4 req/sec)