Where will Rates Go? It’s Anybody’s Guess
Intertanko has established a tradition of asking members and guests at its Annual Dinner to forecast what the rates will be one year ahead when they gather again for the next Tanker Event and AGM. Last year in Washington, the secretariat threatened to reveal the findings of the psychoanalyst that they had allegedly employed to scrutinize the forecasts made in Rotterdam in 2002. Owners were as bad as charterers, and brokers as bad as analysts at predicting future market levels! With the Annual Event and Dinner in Dubai now only a few weeks away (28-31 March) the analysis of last year's forecasters is already causing considerable amusement in the INTERTANKO offices around the world. WS rate VLCC AG-Japan? Million dwt. of tankers sold for recycling in 2003? Oil price Brent Blend (USD/bbl)?
OIL SHEDS $0.61 IN SELL OFF
World oil markets dove on Thursday, apparently fueled by speculators' sell-off. Benchmark Brent blend futures dropped $0.61 cents to $20.02 a barrel in late trading after overnight U.S. data indicated slower than expected demand growth for gasoline in the world's biggest oil consuming nation. Weekly government data showed U.S. gasoline inventories rose in the week to August 20 when dealers were expecting a large decline.
Oil Price Drops As Speculators Jump
Euphoria surrounding the soaring price per barrel of oil soured a bit last week, as world oil markets took a nosedive as speculators apparently decided the rally which doubled prices since March had gone far enough. London benchmark Brent blend futures dipped $0.61 cents to $20.02 a barrel in late trading after overnight U.S. data indicated slower than expected demand growth for gasoline in the world's biggest oil consuming nation. Weekly government data showed U.S. gasoline inventories rose in the week to August 20 when dealers were expecting a large decline. "Gasoline supplies appear plentiful," said Prudential Bache broker Nauman Barakat. Traders said the investment hedge funds which have led this year's price rise, in the wake of OPEC supply cuts, sold heavily on Thursday.
Prices Stay High As OPEC Plans To Maintain Curbs
Oil prices marched boldly along near 32-month highs last week after key OPEC exporters said output cuts should be kept in place until March next year. On Sept. 14 Benchmark Brent blend for delivery in October was trading 20 cents firmer at $23.68 a barrel, just four cents off a 32-month high touched the day before. Brokers cautioned that technical factors to do with the expiry Sept. 15 of the October contract on London's futures market had inflated Brent's value. However, they agreed the trend was moving in favor of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the producer group of Middle Eastern, Asian, African and Latin American countries responsible for 60 percent of the world's oil exports.
Oil Averages $18 In 1999
Oil prices in 1999 posted a 35 percent increase on average over 1998, in a triumph of output restraints by exporter group OPEC and key ally Mexico. International benchmark Brent blend for the year was averaging $18 a barrel near the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Brent averaged just $13.34 a barrel in 1998, the lowest in 22 years, when prices slumped amid global surplus caused by excess output and shrinking demand in collapsing Asian economies. Average prices for Brent were $19.34 in 1997 and $20.28 in 1996. By cutting supply in 1999 by about four percent, OPEC boosted petroleum export revenues by some $25 billion, according to estimates released by London's Center for Global Energy Studies.
Oil Averages $18 In 1999
Oil prices in 1999 posted a 35 percent increase on average over 1998 in a triumph of output restraint by exporter group OPEC and key ally Mexico. International benchmark Brent blend for the year was averaging $18.00 a barrel near the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Brent averaged just $13.34 a barrel in 1998, the lowest in 22 years, when prices slumped amid global surplus caused by excess output and shrinking demand in collapsing Asian economies. Average prices for Brent were $19.34 in 1997 and $20.28 in 1996. "OPEC has succeeded beyond its own expectations in increasing prices and in reducing global crude inventories," said a report from Washington-based Petroleum Finance Company.
U.S. Continues To Pressure OPEC
Oil resumed its slide on Wednesday as Washington kept up pressure for a big OPEC output rise to prevent a politically-damaging U.S. gasoline shortage. International benchmark Brent Blend crude oil futures for May delivery shed 21 cents to $25.51, having slumped $1.35 per barrel on Monday and recovered 52 cents on Tuesday. U.S. light crudes were 23 cents off at $27.58.
