The risk of Gulf of Mexico 2014 production shut-ins by storms is considered to be higher than last year, according to a recent U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a relatively mild hurricane season, but even a quiet season like last year can lead to disruptions to offshore crude oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. EIA's mean estimate of offshore production outages during the current hurricane season totals 12 million barrels (bbls) of crude oil and 30 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas, more than three and four times higher than last year, respectively. These estimates are highly uncertain as it is difficult to predict the location and intensity of individual storms.