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Barclays expects UAE to increase oil production after it leaves OPEC

Posted to Maritime Reporter on April 29, 2026

Barclays said late Tuesday that the United Arab Emirates' decision not to join OPEC would result in a faster growth of oil -supply from the country, as it 'comes out?of?the current crisis. Barclays said late Tuesday that the United Arab Emirates, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' fourth largest producer, would leave the group by May 1.

Barclays stated in a late-night note that this announcement would reassure?potential investment that the recovery of the economy will not be hampered by OPEC+ production quotas.

The bank said that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still low "as the moving average of 3-4 crude oil vessels and?refined products (including LPG), is down 95% compared to last year." Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, so the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed. It is a conduit that supplies about 20% of world oil and LNG.

In a Wednesday note, ANZ Bank said that the UAE's withdrawal from?the cartel would have a limited impact on oil prices, as they are still more influenced by geopolitics and inventories than by...institutional changes.

ANZ stated that even though the UAE no longer has to adhere to formal OPEC+ goals, its ability to convert?capacity? into exportable supplies is still governed the operating environment surrounding the Gulf's crucial chokepoint. (Reporting from Noel John, Bengaluru. Editing by Sharon Singleton.)

(source: Reuters)

Tags: Asia Europe Marine Services Middle East North America Western Europe

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