Four trading sources told us that Kazakhstan's oil exports may fall as much as 35 percent this month through its main route via Russia. This is because the Tengiz oilfield, which suffered fires in January at power plants, is slowly recovering.

Tengizchevroil, a consortium led by U.S. oil major Chevron, operates the field.

Sources said that oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which crosses Russia on its way to the Black Sea could fall from the initial schedule of around 1.7 million barrels a day (bpd) down to around 1.1million bpd, if production at Tengiz recovers at a slow pace.

They declined to name the sources because they were not authorized to speak with the media.

Tengiz was closed for the majority of January due to fires that?hit its energy facilities. Kazakhstan has investigated the incidents.

CPC PIPELINE DISRUPTIONS

TCO reminded that it is "working to gradually increase output as conditions permit".

The company declined to comment if it had lifted the force majeure order on CPC Blend crude supplies issued after Tengiz’s shutdown. It said it would not comment on details about its operations.

The Kazakh Energy Ministry has not responded to a comment request.

CPC has declined to comment.

In recent months, the pipeline that carries over 1% of world oil supply has been subject to repeated disruptions, including drone attacks, bad weather, repairs on its single-point-mooring (SPM-3), and production outages in Tengiz.

Sources said that January CPC blend oil loadings were only 880,000 bpd - less than half the original plan.

A source in the industry said that the Tengiz oil supplied to the CPC pipe was approximately 30,000 metric tonnes per day during the first two weeks of February.

In late January, sources familiar with the issue also said that Tengiz production was expected to reach around 33,000 tons or approximately 260,000?bpd by February 4.

A source who trades CPC Blend crude said on Friday that "if Tengiz restored full production within days, then we might see more exports. But?we do not count on it."

Two industry sources confirmed that TCO canceled the loading of 14 Suezmax tanks from its initial February plan due to the output problem.

Each Suezmax vessel is capable of carrying around 130,000 tonnes of crude. Some of the cargoes that were cancelled are being reinstated.

Shipping data indicates that the first TCO cargo to be loaded from CPC this month will take place between February 6 and 7, according to shipping data.

(source: Reuters)