Experts say that a U.S. Naval Blockade of Iran would be a major and open-ended military effort, which could lead to fresh retaliation by Tehran, putting tremendous pressure on an already fragile truce. In a post on social media, President Donald Trump said that the U.S. Navy would "start the process of BLOCKING any and all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz." Central Command of the U.S. Military later clarified that the blockade would only be applicable to ships heading to or coming from Iran. This includes all Iranian ports in the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. CENTCOM announced that the blockade would take place on Monday, at 10 a.m. Washington time (1400 GMT). Trump said U.S. Forces would also interdict ships that had paid tolls in Iran, even though those vessels are now in international water. Trump wrote in Truth Social that "no one who pays a toll illegally will be able to travel on the high seas".

Trump stated that the ultimate goal would be to pressure Iran into ending its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a chokepoint for 20% of world oil. This would apply to all countries except those who have secured safe passage through Tehran. If Trump's plan'succeeds', he will eliminate Iran's biggest leverage in negotiations with America and open the Strait to global trade again, possibly lowering oil costs. Experts say that a blockade is a form of "war" which requires a large number of warships to be committed for an extended period of time.

"Trump wants an immediate fix." The Washington Institute for Near East Policy's Dana Stroul said that this mission was difficult to accomplish alone, and probably unsustainable in the medium-to-long term.

IRANIAN RETALIATION

The U.S. Military has yet to provide basic details about the blockade. This includes how many U.S. Warships will enforce it, if warplanes are used, and if any Gulf Allies will help in the effort. Central Command did not respond to comments. Experts say that the U.S. Navy, with enough warships on hand, could create a blockade to deter commercial tankers from attempting to enter Iran's oil-rich waters. Would the United States be willing to board, seize and damage ships that attempt to break the blockade or even sink them? What if the ships carry oil for China or other major powers, or U.S. allies such as India and South Korea?

What would Iran do? Former chief of U.S. Naval Operations, retired Admiral Gary Roughead warned that Iran might fire on ships in Gulf or attack the infrastructure of Gulf states that house U.S. troops.

Roughead stated, "I honestly think that Iran will react in some way if we start doing it." Iran's threats against shipping has caused the global oil price to soar by about 50% since U.S. Trump stated 'on Sunday' that oil and gasoline prices may continue to rise in the United States until November's midterm elections. This could lead Trump's Republicans to lose control of the U.S. Congress if there is a backlash. The war is already unpopular.

GAS PRICE PROBLEM

Trump, frustrated by Iran's refusal of ending the war according to his terms, floated on Sunday the possibility of a return of U.S. attacks inside Iran. He cited missile factories as one possible possibility.

U.S. Mark Warner, Virginia's ranking Democrat senator on the Senate Intelligence Committee questioned the strategy. He noted that Iran could send speedboats into the strait to mine or bomb tankers.

How can that ever lower gas prices? Warner asked CBS's "Face the Nation"

The U.S. has conducted thousands of military strikes against Iran, which have left its military in a state of severe weakness. Analysts say that Tehran emerged from the conflict with a "vexing" problem for Washington. They cite a hardliner leadership and a "buried stockpile" of highly enriched nuclear material.

Trump said on Sunday, "Any Iranian who fires at us or at peaceful vessels will be BLOWN OUT!"

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards issued a warning, warning that any military vessel approaching the strait would be considered as a breach of ceasefire and treated harshly and firmly. This highlighted the danger of an escalation.

Stroul stated that the crisis would require a long term, international effort in order to be resolved.

She said that in the long term, it will be necessary to resolve this issue through diplomacy. (Reporting and editing by Sergio Non, Deepa Babington, and Phil Stewart)

(source: Reuters)