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Report by the CIA shows that Tehran can withstand a blockade of four months as fighting flares

Posted to Maritime Reporter on May 8, 2026

The U.S. intelligence assessment concluded that Tehran could withstand a naval blocade for four more months.

According to a U.S. government official who was familiar with this analysis, first reported by The Washington Post, the CIA assessment concluded that the U.S. campaign to bomb Iran, hailed by President Donald Trump as a great success, had also failed to convince Iran's leadership to capitulate.

The analysis showed that the conflict might not be resolved anytime soon, despite Trump’s attempts to end the conflict. This has been unpopular among U.S. voters.

In recent days, fighting has flared up in and around Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the ceasefire was established a month earlier. The United Arab Emirates were again attacked on Friday. Washington awaits Tehran's reaction to a U.S. plan that would officially end the "war" before talking about more controversial issues like Iran's nuclear programme.

Marco Rubio, the U.S. secretary of state, told reporters earlier that day in Rome: "We should be able to tell you something." "We are expecting a reply from them."

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that Tehran was still weighing up its response. No news had been reported in Washington by mid-afternoon, but just before midnight, in Tehran.

SPORADIC CLASHES - STRAIT Iran's semiofficial Fars News Agency reported that sporadic collisions took place between Iranian forces, and U.S. vessels, in the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the Tasnim News Agency cited an Iranian source who said that the situation had calmed down but warned of more clashes.

The U.S. The?U.S. military claimed it had struck two Iran-linked ships attempting to enter a port in Iran, after a U.S. jet hit their smokestacks forcing them to return. Since the beginning of the war, when the U.S. and Israel launched joint airstrikes in Iran on February 28, Iran has largely prevented non-Iranian ships from passing through the strait. Last month, the U.S. placed a blockade against Iranian vessels. Brent crude futures rose above $100 a barrel but were still down over 6% on the week.

Trump said Thursday that the ceasefire still held despite flare-ups along the Strait of Hormuz, which handled before the war one-fifth?of the world's oil supplies.

The conflict extended beyond the waterway. Three people were moderately injured after the United Arab Emirates' air defences engaged two Iranian ballistic missiles, three drones and three drones on Friday.

During the war Iran has repeatedly attacked the UAE and other?Gulf States that host U.S. Military bases. Iran increased its attacks in what the UAE referred to as a "major escalated" after Trump announced "Project Freedom", which would escort vessels?in the Strait of Hormuz. The project was halted after 48 hours.

IRAN ACCUSES U.S. of BREACHING TRUECE

Iran claimed that the U.S. had breached the ceasefire. The ceasefire was largely in place since April 7, but it has been strained?this past week, after Trump announced and then paused his naval mission to reopen strait.

Abbas Araqchi, Foreign Minister of Iran, said that the U.S. chooses reckless military adventures every time a diplomatic resolution is on the table. Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that a U.S. Navy attack on a commercial ship in Iran late Thursday resulted in one crew member being killed, 10 injured and four still missing.

Rubio, who met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Melons, asked why?Italy, and other allies, were not supporting Washington's effort to reopen the Strait.

"Are You Going to Normalise A Country That Claims to Control An International Waterway?" "If you normalise this, you will set a precedent which is going to be repeated in a dozen places," said he.

(source: Reuters)

Tags: Asia Middle East North America Transportation North Asia East Asia

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