Russia's largest grain lobby warned on Friday that Ukrainian attacks on Russian ports and ships could close?grain imports via the Black Sea within a short time, driving up prices and causing famine in Africa and the Middle East.

In recent weeks, Russia, which is the largest exporter of wheat in the world, and Ukraine, another major exporter of agricultural products, have attacked each other's agricultural facilities and commercial ships in the Black Sea region.

Wheat prices have increased in recent weeks due to concerns over the Black Sea supply. Russia and Ukraine are intensifying their offensive.

The Russian Union of Grain Exporters and Producers said that many countries would soon feel the effects of the Ukrainian attack.

The union stated that "the disruption of shipping in the Black Sea due to Ukrainian attacks on dry cargo ships and port infrastructure pose a direct risk to global food safety."

The consequences of the crisis will affect many countries, even though importers are not currently facing a shortage due to carryover stocks or the ability to temporarily meet the demand by using other suppliers.

A source in the agricultural market said on Thursday that an Ukrainian drone attack caused "significant damage" to a major grain terminal at Russia's Taman port.

The Russian grain union warned that what it called Ukraine's "systematic attack" which began in July could lead to "a complete blockage of export channels in the Black Sea Basin".

UAC, Ukraine's largest agricultural union, warned that Russian strikes near the southern port city of Odesa could also impact global food supply.

The Russian Ministry of Defence announced on Friday that it had hit 31 ships in the last week linked to the Ukrainian Military, including 23 cargo vessels and four bulk carriers.

The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated on Friday that Russian attacks against shipping in the Black Sea threaten global food security and called on European partners to assist with this.

The United Nations brokered a grain corridor that allowed Ukraine to export along the western part Black Sea in the months after the war began in February 2022. However, Russian attacks in recent weeks have effectively closed the corridor.

Last week, a Ukrainian government source said that U.S. officials and Ukrainian officials discussed the possibility of an aerial ceasefire as part?of peace proposals to be taken to Russia. The Kremlin stated that it is premature to comment on reports of such a ceasefire.

"PROTRACTED CRISIS"

The Union of Russian Grain Exporters and Producers (RUGEP) warned that a shortfall in the supply of Russian wheat this season to other countries could be as high as 30-35 million tons, which would account for about 15% of global wheat trade. The union said that it would be impossible to make up the shortfall through increased?exports.

It warned that "a physical shortage of grains will trigger a prolonged global crisis."

If current negative factors persist, FOB (free on board) prices of wheat are expected to increase to between US$340-US$370 per ton with the possibility of exceeding US$400.

This trend could trigger widespread "food inflation" that may be more severe than the logistical disruptions caused by the pandemic.

The Middle East and?Africa are most at risk of being affected by the crisis, as they depend on the Black Sea basin for their supplies.

"As the price of wheat rises, not all countries importing it will be able to maintain their buying volumes. This could lead to an important decline in domestic consumption." This will lead to famine in the poorest of countries. Reporting from Moscow and Kyiv; writing by Alessandra Prrentice/Andrew Osborn/Dan Flynn, editing by Louise Heavens

(source: Reuters)