Climate Prediction Center News

09 Aug 2019

NOAA Increases Odds for 'above-normal' Hurricane Season

CREDIT: NOAA
CREDIT: NOAA

The end of El Nino could boost Atlantic hurricane activity.August 8, 2019 NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended. Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway.Flooding is always a significant threat during tropical cyclones. In August 2017 Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas…

10 Jan 2019

U.S. Forecaster Sees 65 pct Chance of El Niño in Spring

There is a 65 percent chance of an El Niño weather pattern emerging during the northern hemisphere spring this year, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday."However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter, even if conditions were to form," the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) added in its monthly forecast.Last month, the weather forecaster pegged the chances of the El Niño emerging at 60 percent during spring 2019.The last El Niño, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years…

12 Apr 2018

La Niña to Transition to Neutral Weather in April-May -U.S. Forecaster

Photo: NOAA

The La Niña weather pattern is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during the April-May period, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods in which neither El Niño nor La Niña is present, according to CPC. There is a more than 50 percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions prevailing through the northern hemisphere summer in 2018, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast.

09 Nov 2017

CPC: La Niña Chances at 65-75%

Photo: NOAA

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said La Niña conditions are predicted to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast pegged the chance of La Niña developing at about 65 percent to 75 percent. The agency in its October advisory had projected a 55 percent to 65 percent chance of the phenomenon developing during the Northern Hemisphere's fall and winter.

12 Oct 2017

US Forecaster Sees 55-65% Chance of La Niña

A U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday conditions were favoring La Niña weather pattern during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2017-18. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast said the chances of La Niña were seen at 55 percent to 65 percent.   Reporting by Karen Rodrigues in Bengaluru

08 Jun 2017

US Forecaster Sees El Niño Unlikely through Fall 17

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said there are no active El Niño or La Niña patterns and that neutral conditions are likely in the Northern Hemisphere during fall 2017. However, chances for El Niño remain elevated, between 35 and 50 percent, relative to the long-term average into the fall, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in a monthly forecast. (Reporting by Arpan Varghese in Bengaluru)

11 May 2017

U.S. Forecaster Sees Chance of El Nino By Summer, Fall 2017

Neutral or El Nino conditions are nearly equally likely in the Northern Hemisphere this summer and fall, a U.S. government forecaster said on Thursday. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center said in its monthly outlook that the forecaster consensus reflected slightly lower chances of El Nino development than it did last month. The last El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific that typically occurs every few years, went away in 2016 and was linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods.   (Reporting by Vijaykumar Vedala in Bengaluru)

04 May 2017

El Nino Conditions Are Developing in the Pacific

El Nino conditions are developing across the Pacific with an increasing probability that a full-fledged El Nino episode will occur during the second half of 2017. Pacific equatorial winds have slackened since the start of the year and a characteristic tongue of warm water has begun to form stretching from Peru towards the international dateline. Both are consistent with the development of El Nino and are likely to strengthen during the second and third quarters. The U.S. government’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) last month forecast El Nino conditions would prevail by the end of the northern hemisphere summer, but put the probability at only 50 percent.

09 Feb 2017

US Weather Forecaster says La Niña Conditions Have Faded

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said La Niña has faded and neutral conditions are likely to continue through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring, even as it forecast the chance of El Niño may appear in the coming months. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast said that neutral conditions have returned and are favored to continue. However, the CPC noted some chance of the appearance of El Niño as early as March to May 2017. (Reporting by Chris Prentice)

10 Nov 2016

US Forecaster Sees La Niña Likely to Persist in Coming Months

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday said that La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2016-17. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in a monthly forecast said it observed La Niña conditions during October and sees a 55 percent change they will persist through the winter. Last month, the agency pegged the chance of La Nina developing this fall at 70 percent. (Reporting by Chris Prentice)

08 Sep 2016

US Weather Forecaster Reduces Outlook for La Nina

Image Credit:  Dan Pisut, based on Geo-Polar data

A U.S. government weather forecaster reduced its outlook on Thursday for La Nina conditions to develop during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016/17, saying neutral conditions were more likely.   The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly forecast there was a 55 to 60 percent chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions, after last month saying that La Nina conditions were slightly favored to occur.   (Reporting By Luc Cohen)

15 Aug 2016

Atlantic Hurricane Season to be Stronger than Expected

In it's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update, NOAA's National Weather Service indicates there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms. (NOAA)

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012. Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes.

12 Aug 2016

Forecasters Predict Strong Atlantic Hurricane Season

Image: NOAA

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is expected to be the most active since 2012. Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which five to eight are expected to become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.

09 Jun 2016

US Forecaster Sees High Chance of La Nina

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday maintained its projections for the La Nina weather phenomenon to take place in the Northern Hemisphere later this year, as El Nino conditions dissipated. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said in its monthly forecast La Nina is favored to develop during the summer and pegged the chance of La Nina developing in the fall and winter 2016-17 at 75 percent. That matched the agency's expectations last month for the likelihood of La Nina. The CPC also said that El Nino conditions, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, had largely disappeared, citing near-to-below average sea surface temperatures across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

14 Apr 2016

US Forecaster Sees Rising Chance of La Nina

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday forecast an increasing chance of the La Nina weather phenomenon taking place in the Northern Hemisphere in the second half of the year.   The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, in its monthly forecast said the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to neutralize late in the Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016.   (Reporting by Marcy Nicholson)

03 Aug 2015

Climate Change Boosts Galapagos Penguin Population

A new study compared sea surface temperatures with endangered Galapagos Penguin population counts and found that the penguin population doubled while waters cooled around their nesting islands. (Courtesy of Snowmanradio/Flickr)

Shifts in trade winds and ocean currents powered a resurgence of endangered Galapagos Penguins over the past 30 years, according to a new study led by researchers at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI). These changes enlarged a cold pool of water the penguins rely on for food and breeding—an expansion that could continue as the climate changes over the coming decades, according to the study. The Galapagos Islands, a chain of islands 1,000 kilometers west of mainland Ecuador, are home to the only penguins in the Northern Hemisphere.

09 Jul 2015

US Forecaster sees El Nino Likely into N. Hemisphere Spring

A U.S. government weather forecaster on Thursday warned that much-watched El Nino conditions are likely to last another nine months, potentially roiling global crops and commodities prices. The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center projected a more than 90 percent chance that El Nino would continue through this winter and an 80 percent likelihood it would last into the Northern Hemisphere's early spring. Global forecasters have been heightening calls for a stronger and longer El Nino. Last month, the CPC extended its forecast, saying El Nino was likely to last through the winter. Across the contiguous United States, the effects of El Nino are likely to remain minimal through the summer and increase into the late fall and winter, the CPC said on Thursday.

19 Mar 2015

NOAA: No Relief in Sight for Western US Drought

Drought pressures will increase in California and western areas of the United States this spring even as the dry season begins, the government's Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday. "Periods of record warmth in the West and not enough precipitation during the rainy season cut short drought relief in California this winter and prospects for above-average temperatures this spring may make the situation worse," Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at the Climate Prediction Center, said in issuing its spring outlook. The center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, also said rivers in western New York and eastern New England have the greatest risk of spring flooding in part because of heavy snowpack coupled with possible spring rain.

08 Jan 2015

U.S. Forecaster Sees Potential for Weak El Nino Conditions

Photo courtesy: NOAA

The U.S. weather forecaster on Thursday projected a 50 percent to 60 percent chance of El Nino conditions during over the next two months, compared with the 65-percent chance it predicted for the Northern Hemisphere winter in December. The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, said in a monthly report that the agency remained on El Nino watch, but said it expects a "weak event," should El Nino emerge. That was a slightly reduced forecast from the CPC's outlook last month.

04 Dec 2014

CPC: 65% Chance of El Nino in N. Hemisphere Winter

The U.S. weather forecaster on Thursday projected a 65-percent chance that El Nino conditions will be present during the Northern Hemisphere winter and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring. The Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, raised its projection for the likelihood of the weather phenomenon in its monthly report. Reporting by Chris Prentice

06 Nov 2014

U.S. Weather Forecaster Slightly Reduces El Nino Chances

The Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, on Thursday projected a 58-percent chance of El Nino developing during the Northern Hemisphere winter, slightly reducing the likelihood of the weather phenomenon. The U.S. weather forecaster said the phenomenon, if it materializes, is favored to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring in its monthly forecast. (Reporting by Chris Prentice Editing by W Simon)

09 Oct 2014

El Niño Could Kick Off in 1-2 months

Photo courtesy of NOAA

The El Niño weather phenomenon is favored to occur in the next 1-2 months and last into next spring in the Northern Hemisphere, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, said on Thursday. The forecast marks the strongest prediction yet from the U.S. weather forecaster after CPC went on El Niño watch earlier this year. "This El Niño will likely remain weak throughout its duration," CPC said in its monthly forecast. El Niño, the warming of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific…

04 Sep 2014

US Weather Forecaster Pegs El Niño Chances at 60-65%

A U.S. weather forecaster pegged the likelihood of the El Niño weather phenomenon occurring during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at 60-65 percent in its monthly update on Thursday. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC), an agency of the National Weather Service, has begun dialing back its outlook for the phenomenon since going on El Niño watch earlier this year for the first time since 2012. The agency had lowered its outlook to 65 percent for an El Nino last month. "At this time, the consensus of forecasters expects El Niño to emerge during September-October and to peak at weak strength during the late fall and early winter," CPC said in the report.

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