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Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Hurricane Season News

Atlantic Hurricane Season to be Stronger than Expected

In it's 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update, NOAA's National Weather Service indicates there is a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms. (NOAA)

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, NOAA calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is still expected to be the most active since 2012. Forecasters now expect a 70-percent chance of 12–17 named storms, of which 5–8 are expected to become hurricanes, including 2–4 major hurricanes. The initial outlook called for 10–16 named storms, 4–8 hurricanes, and 1–4 major hurricanes.

Forecasters Predict Strong Atlantic Hurricane Season

Image: NOAA

In its updated 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)calls for a higher likelihood of a near-normal or above-normal season, and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent, from the initial outlook issued in May. The season is expected to be the most active since 2012. Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, of which five to eight are expected to become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.

NOAA: "near or below normal" 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted a "near or below normal" 2014 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday, with eight to 13 tropical storms and three to six hurricanes, with one or two reaching major Category 3 status with winds above 111 miles per hour (178 kph). A typical season has 12 tropical storms, with six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, according to forecasters at Colorado State University, a leading U.S. extreme weather analysis team. The six month-long hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.   Reporting by David Adams

2001 Hurricane Season Begins Quietly

The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season dawned quietly on June 1, but storm experts warned people in hurricane alley early-season peace was no reason to let down your guard. June storms are a relative rarity in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30. Peak hurricane activity strikes in late August, September and early October. With climatic indicators on neutral, the prominent forecasters of nature's biggest storms are projecting an average season. U.S. government experts say residents of the Caribbean basin and the U.S. East and Gulf coasts are likely to see five to seven hurricanes and eight to 11 tropical storms.

NOAA: Atlantic to Experience Mediocre Hurricane Season

U.S. government weather experts on Monday predicted an average hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean this year, with five to seven hurricanes expected to threaten homes, businesses and agriculture in the Caribbean and southeast U.S. coasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said the 2001 North Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1, would likely see eight to 11 tropical storms, of which five to seven will reach hurricane strength. Of those, two or three could be classified as major hurricanes with sustained winds of at least 110 miles per hour. Tropical storms become hurricanes when their top sustained winds reach 74 mph. "Although we expect an average level of activity this season, that is no cause to become complacent.

More Hurricanes Predicted for 2006

Another active hurricane season is in store for 2006 in the Atlantic Basin, the fourth consecutive year there will be an above-normal number of storms, according to a Bloomberg report. Of 17 named storms next year, nine will become hurricanes and five those will be major storms with winds of at least 111 miles (178 kilometers) per hour. The 2006 hurricane season probably will not see as many storms make landfall as this year or in 2004, the report said. Twenty-six named storms, of which 14 became hurricanes and seven major hurricanes, made 2005 the most destructive hurricane season ever. Source: Bloomberg

NOAA Reviews 2010 Storms, End of Hurricane Season

According to NOAA the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which just ended, was one of the busiest on record. In contrast, the eastern North Pacific season had the fewest storms on record since the satellite era began. In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record. Of those, 12 became hurricanes – tied with 1969 for second highest on record. Five of those reached major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher. These totals are within the ranges predicted in NOAA’s seasonal outlooks issued on May 27 (14-23 named storms; 8-14 hurricanes; 3-7 major hurricanes) and August 5 (14-20 named storms; 8-12 hurricanes; 4-6 major hurricanes). An average Atlantic season produces 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

NOAA: La Niña Develops

The Atlantic Basin remains on track for an active hurricane season, according to the scheduled seasonal outlook update issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. With the season’s peak just around the corner – late August through October – the need for preparedness plans is essential. NOAA also announced that, as predicted last spring, La Niña has formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This favors lower wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storm clouds to grow and organize. Other climate factors pointing to an active hurricane season are warmer-than-average water in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean…

Hurricane Season Stakes Raised by NOAA

Photo credit NOAA

NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño, updated outlook calls for near- or above-normal Atlantic season. This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases…

GofM 2014 Production Storm Shut-ins Likely Higher This Year

GoM Shut in production: Source EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, June edition

The risk of Gulf of Mexico 2014 production shut-ins by storms is considered to be higher than last year, according to a recent U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting a relatively mild hurricane season, but even a quiet season like last year can lead to disruptions to offshore crude oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico. EIA's mean estimate of offshore production outages during the current hurricane season totals 12 million barrels (bbls) of crude oil and 30 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas…

Experts Expect Lively Hurricane Season

Photo: AccuWeather

AccuWeather reports experts are calling for an above-normal hurricane season this year with 14 named storms forecast for the Atlantic basin. Of those, eight are predicted to become hurricanes and four are predicted to become major hurricanes. Due to a combination of factors, this season is expected to be more active than any season in the past three years. Experts warn that those living along the Atlantic coast should be on alert. "During the early part of the season, of course…

Atlantic May See First 2015 Hurricane, 'Danny' Strengthens

Image: U.S. National Hurricane Center

Tropical Storm Danny is on track to become the first hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season by Friday and could approach the Caribbean islands by the late weekend, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday. It is still too early to predict whether Danny, currently a tropical storm with winds gusting up to 50 miles per hour (85 kph), will impact the United States, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the hurricane center in Miami. Danny is the fourth named storm of what is expected to be a quieter-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, he said.

NOAA Expects Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season

An active to extremely active hurricane season is expected for the Atlantic Basin this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service. As with every hurricane season, this outlook underscores the importance of having a hurricane preparedness plan in place. “If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. The outlook ranges exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. •    Upper atmospheric winds conducive for storms.

Offshore Installations: BSEE to Host Hurricane Preparations Forum

The Bureau of Safety & Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) will host a public forum on offshore energy infrastructure hurricane preparedness and response on Thursday, June 27, 2013, as part of its efforts to improve the safety of offshore oil and gas operations. “In our continuing efforts to be fully prepared for hurricane season, we are bringing together representatives from the government, oil and gas industry and environmental community to discuss our actions to protect offshore energy infrastructure and the environment during a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,” said BSEE Director James Watson. In the aftermath of the 2005 hurricane season, platforms toppled and pipelines were ripped from the seafloor.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Could be More Active

The Atlantic Ocean could be gearing up for an active hurricane season, meaning North American residents may want to pay attention. In recent years, single hurricanes have led to thousands of deaths across the Caribbean, North and Central America, and have caused several billion dollars in damage. When a hurricane bears down on a region, it not only puts people in peril, but it affects just about every major industry in the area, adding extra importance to the annual hurricane forecast. On average, the Atlantic Basin observes around 11 named tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes during any given season, which runs from June through November. But those numbers could be a bit higher this year thanks to the atmospheric set-up that is currently brewing.

MMS Monitoring Two Adrift Rigs

The Minerals Management Service has two confirmed reports of drilling rigs adrift in the central . The MMS, industry, and the U.S. Coast Guard are working together to monitor the paths of the two rigs. MMS has determined through a pre-hurricane season risk analysis that there is minimal infrastructure in the areas surrounding these two rigs. The MMS conducts risk assessments of every mobile drilling rig location plan prior to hurricane season before granting approval of each plan. The assessments consider the proposed location’s proximity to critical oil and gas infrastructure, condition of seafloor, and station–keeping (mooring) capabilities of each specific rig. Once the weather in the clears, over flights by MMS staff, the U.S.

Coast Guard Urges Storm Preparedness

The Coast Guard has made recommendations that all mariners take proper safety precautions throughout the hurricane season. The hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, runs from June 1 to November 30, according to the NOAA. Lt. Samuel Johnson, a search and rescue controller for the Eighth Coast Guard District, said that boaters, commercial or recreational, should heed storm warnings and bring their vessel to safe moorings. Johnson, who coordinates search and rescue operations throughout the Gulf coast, also recommends boaters contact bridge tenders for any deviations to posted schedules due to approaching storms.

Arthur Becomes Atlantic's First Hurricane of 2014

Source: NOAA

Storm Arthur became the first hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Thursday. Arthur was about 190 miles (305 km) south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina with maximum sustained wind of 75 mph (120 kph), NHC said. (Reporting by Anupam Chatterjee in Bangalore; Editing by Alison Williams)

T/S Henri Forms in the Atlantic

Tropical Storm Henri, the eighth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, has formed in the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Wednesday. The storm was located about 250 miles (405 km) east-southeast of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds of 40 miles per hour (65 kph), the Miami-based weather forecaster said. Henri is moving toward the north at nearly 5 miles per hour (7 kph). "Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours," the NHC added. Reporting by Kevin Jose  

U.S. Gulf Coast Braces For Tropical Storm Barry

Tropical Storm Barry, the second of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Barry had maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, barely strong enough to be classified as a tropical storm. Tropical weather systems are given names when top winds reach 39 mph. At 3 p.m., EST, the center of the storm was about 320 miles southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River at latitude 26.3 north, longitude 84.8 west. It was headed to the northwest at about 5 mph and was expected to turn gradually to the west-northwest on Friday. Forecasters said it could strengthen in the next 24 hours and storm alerts could be issued for the north-central Gulf coast on Thursday night.

Texas issues FAMA Newsletter

The Texas Office of Oil Spill Prevention and Response (OSPR) released the Spring 2006 edition of its Facility and Maritime Affairs (FAMA) newsletter. In addition to discussing the previous hurricane season, the newsletter reminds owners and operators of vessels operating in Texas coastal waters of the requirement to register with OSPR. A civil penalty of not less than $100 per day of violation may be assessed for failure to register. Source: HK Law

Cape Hatteras Lighthouse To Move Soon

Crews on Tuesday were making final preparations to move the historic Cape Hatteras lighthouse, the nation’s tallest brick lighthouse, from its perch on an eroding beach along North Carolina’s Outer Banks. With the first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season churning out at sea, the lighthouse was set to be lifted onto steel rails later this week and begin a month-long journey to a new foundation further inland, officials said.

MarAd Seeks to Designate Ships for Relief

According to reports, the U.S. Maritime Administration (MarAd) is seeking to designate one or more vessels as relief ships for rescue operations during disasters. Speaking on the sidelines of the API Tanker Conference 2006, Varshney said that MarAd and the U.S. Military Sealift Command (MSC) should collaborate to make this idea materialize. This was suggested in the aftermath of the hurricane season in the U.S. Gulf Coast last year, which raised several questions about contingency plans for disasters and logistics problems. Source: Reuters

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