Moore Stephens: Optimism to Outweigh Shipping Pessimism in 2018
International accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens expects optimism to triumph over pessimism in the shipping industry during the next 12 months. Writing in the latest issue of Bottom Line, the newsletter of the Moore Stephens shipping industry group, partner Richard Greiner says, “According to a recent study, pessimists live longer than optimists, and shipping is short of neither. But the industry has always valued longevity as well as new blood, and it certainly ended 2017 in more optimistic mood than it closed the previous year.
Ship Scrapping Now a Money Maker
According to an April 8 report from China Daily, as the shipbuilding industry struggles to recover from the global recession, China's ship scrapping business has become a smorgasbord for both factories and investors. Ship breaking or ship demolition companies usually buy in vessels and sell the scrap to iron and steel companies nearby to book a profit. The price of iron and steel scrap has risen to more than $400 per ton from $150 per ton last year. (Source: China Daily)
Ship Breaking Activity Grows Slowly but Steadily -BIMCO
Global ship demolition activity rose by 16 percent in the first nine months of 2016 in comparison to the same period of 2015, showcasing shipping industry action to counter the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, according to BIMCO. However, diminishing demolition activity from March through July was bad for the recovery of the market. But could the recent increase in August and September be seen as a mild sign of hope? From a broader perspective, a total of 36.2 million DWT was demolished in the first nine months of 2016…
Fleet Growth Squeezes Crude Oil Tanker Market
From January 2014 - October 2016 the crude oil tanker segment composing of VLCC, suexmax and aframax ships, had a net-fleet growth of 7.3 percent, which is equal to 24.3 million (m) DWT. The VLCC segment, with 20.7m DWT or a net fleet growth rate of 11 percent took the lion’s share, followed by the suezmax segment with 4.4m DWT or 5.5 percent. Whereas the aframax segment decreased by -0.8m DWT or 1 percent, in relation to the fleet size of the specific ship segment. The Baltic and International Maritime Council’s (BIMCO) Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand said…
BIMCO: BDI Conducts the Demolition Activity
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) ’s positive effect on capacity being removed from the fleet did not continue into Q2 2016, as capesize demolition came to a halt. The BDI went from “devastating” in February to “poor” in April with the highest total demolished DWT ever experienced in the dry bulk market. Unfortunately, BIMCO’s earlier claim was realised when demolition activity slowed down as the BDI improved. Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand comments, “With BDI hitting an all-time low in February 2016, the dry bulk market saw a quarterly record volume of demolished ships in the wake of it.
Bangladesh at Front of Shipbreaking Activity
There has been a firm level of ship demolition activity in the first four months of 2015 and the two largest owner regions, Asia/Pacific and Europe account for 88% of the tonnage sold for recycling, according to the latest review of shipbreaking trend by Clarkson Research. Whilst the Indian Sub-Continent remains the main demolition destination, recent activity has seen Bangladeshi breakers take the lead. This month, by Clarkson Research take a closer look at the country trends behind global demolition.
Japan to Help Boost Indian Ship Recycling
Japan may help India in boosting the country's ship recycling industry. It is learnt that a 14-member Japanese delegation comprising representatives from government departments and shipping industry association, who visited Alang-Sosiya ship recycling yard in Bhavnagar (Gujarat, India) expressed its willingness to aid improving the facility there. The Ship Recycling Yard at Alang located near Bhavnagar in Gujarat State on the western coast of Gulf of Cambay is claimed to be the largest ship recycling yard in the world, in terms of number of ships being dismantled.
Containership Scrapping Maintains Record Pace
Containership demolition has reached an all time high, providing a positive surprise for the struggling container shipping sector. “The demolition activity in the last three months’ surprised BIMCO positively and it exceeded our initial expectation based on the appalling 2015 demolition activity,” said BIMCO’s Chief shipping analyst Peter Sand. “It is important that the demolition of excess capacity comes sooner rather than later, as there is still a huge delivery schedule hanging over the container shipping industry for the rest of this year and well into 2017-2018,” Sand said.
Crude Oil Tanker Demolition Bucking the Trend -BIMCO
Four very large crude carriers (VLCC) have been sold for demolition since October 2016, matching the number of VLCCs sold for demolition in the preceding two years, according to BIMCO. Most recently the 1999-built double-hull VLCC with the framing name Good News returned $15.5 million to the ship owner, as demolition prices have reached levels not seen since first half of 2015 ($400 per ltd). “January struck an upbeat tone for demolition in all sectors, but the overall pace of fleet renewal, via demolition, has slowed down since then,” said BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst Peter Sand.
‘Vintage’ Converted VLOCs Still Profitable -BIMCO
With an average age of 23.8 years, the fleet of very large ore carriers (VLOC) converted from very large crude carriers (VLCC) is vintage compared to the average age of 5.7 years for non-converted ore carriers above 200,000 DWT, according to BIMCO. But despite the huge 18.1 years age gap between converted VLOCs and normal VLOCs, the age itself is not the all-important explanatory factor behind a demolition decision. Naturally safety is a paramount issue, but also the fact that the vessels are still employed on a contract.
Busiest Capesize Demolition Market Ever
The activity on the demolition market is off to a good start in 2015 when looking at dry bulk tonnage, according to international shipping association Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO). The dry bulk market has long suffered from weak freight rates stemming from falling demand and an oversupply of ships. However, despite worsening freight market conditions, the demolition of dry bulk tonnage has not been adapting fully to this trend as could be expected, at least until now.
Chinese, Greek Ship Owners Accounted for 40% of Global Recycling
According to Clarkson Research Services, the record pace of fleet growth over the last decade and weakening global demand outlook has left many of the major shipping segments facing severe oversupply. Demolition of older ships is one way of easing overcapacity and recycling volumes have been strong in recent years. The top ten owner countries typically account for the majority of recycling with Chinese and Greek owners leading the way. Last year a total of 860 ships of a combined 23m GT were reported sold for demolition. This is equivalent to 2% of the start year fleet.
BIMCO: Containership Scrapping Heats Up
demolition of containerships almost tripled in the first five months of 2016 in comparison to the same period of 2015. This illustrates the efforts carried out by shipowners to counter the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand under poor container shipping market conditions. However, more needs to be done to lift the charter market. The demolition of capacity in the panamax segment (3-5,999 TEUs), since the start of January 2016 till the year to date, has been especially significant.
Record Bulk Shipping Demolition Rates in 1H15
Monthly demolition rates in the dry bulk shipping sector averaged 3.3 million DWT for 1H15, according to new figures from BIMCO, compared to 1.3 million DWT last year. This included a record 5.36 million DWT in April – the highest on record for a single month. The dry bulk shipping market has been at rock bottom since February with the Baltic Dry Index staying below 600 from 2 February to 13 May – its lowest levels ever. But with the high rates of demolition and an expected increase in demand through the 2H15, market conditions are expected to improve.
Dry Bulk Fleet Grows as Supply Surges -BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet grew by 2.6 percent year on year in January 2017 it exceeded 800 million DWT. This was due to dry bulk demolition being half of what is was in January 2016, while total dry bulk deliveries reached its highest level since January 2013. In February 2017, fleet growth reached 2.8 percent. If the fleet growth remains above 2 percent, the dry bulk shipping industry cannot rely on global demand to cure the oversupply caused by this fundamental imbalance in the market.
Containership Scrapping Gathers Momentum
After a slow start scrapping of containerships gathered momentum towards the end of 2015 and has continued into 2016, says Drewry Maritime Research. A record intake of newbuild containershps (1.7 million teu) in 2015 coincided with an unusually low scrapping total, serving to widen the supply and demand gap that is assisting the erosion of carrier profits. The amount of scrapping halved in 2015 with only about 195,000 teu worth of capacity removed from the world’s cellular fleet…
New Record Year in Dry Bulk Demolition Underway - BIMCO
The monthly average for the first six months in 2015 is 3.3m DWT. In 2014 the first half year averaged at 1.33m DWT per month. April 2015 saw 5.36 million DWT being retired from active service, which was the highest on record ever for a single month. The record came on the back of continued poor earnings and deteriorating market conditions in dry bulk shipping, evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) staying below 600 from 2 February to 13 May. In 2012, which is the largest demolition year on record with 33.4m DWT leaving the fleet, the monthly average was 2.79m DWT.
Dry Bulk Scrapping Rises
According to Braemar, 2011 is already a record year for dry bulk carrier demolition. In Jan-May 2011, 13.6m Dwt of bulkers have been scrapped, including 7.1m Dwt of Capesize (over 120k Dwt) bulkers. If scrapping continues at this pace for the balance of 2011, it could reach 32.6m Dwt, more than three times the previous record set in 2009. Demolition has previously peaked in years of credit crunches: In 2009, 11.7m Dwt of bulkers were scrapped following the global credit crunch. Scrapping was high even though prices per LDT were down on average for the year to around USD 260 compared to an average of around $370 in 2007. In 1998, 11.2m Dwt of bulkers were scrapped following the Asian financial crisis.
Cargo Ship Stranded on Welsh Coast to be Broken Up
The MV Carrier will be cut into manageable sections on the shore at Llanddulas, near Colwyn Bay, and sent to a scrap yard by road, according to a BBC news report. The owners confirmed contractors will start the demolition once they remove the ship's 24,000 litres of fuel. The work is expected to take six weeks. Seven Polish crew had to rescued when the vessel ran aground last Tuesday. Two lifeboats and Royal Navy and RAF helicopters were involved in the rescue during the night-time rescue in heavy seas.
Demolition Activity Weakens as BDI Moves Higher
After the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) had its seasonal weakness around the Chinese New Year in early February, stronger-than-expected demand came from across the board and lifted freight rates, says BIMCO market analysis of Dry Cargo. This brought earnings into profitable levels for a couple of days, as the BDI passed 1,282 on 27 March 2017. If earnings are at profitable levels now, how come BIMCO’s Road to Recovery keeps mentioning 2018 and 2019? That’s because it focuses on full year profits for all dry bulk segments. That would require a full year where the average BDI is above 1,280.
Demolition Age Drops as the Dry Bulk Market Enters Another Challenging Year
The dry bulk market faced a lot of headwind in 2015 as dwindling demand and over-supply created very unfavourable market conditions, says BIMCO. 2016 has shown no improvements so far and prospects for the rest of the year are not looking promising. With poor earnings across the board the average scrapping age has dropped among all the dry bulk segments. The capsize segment especially has seen a big drop in the average scrapping age; dropping almost four years from an average age close to 25 in 2014 to less than 21 in 2015.
GLDD Reports Dredging Profitable in 2012, Demolition Not So
Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Corp reporte financial results for the final quarter and year ended December 31, 2012. ◦ The above increases were partially offset by decreases in demolition revenue (52%) and coastal protection (previously referred to as beach nourishment) revenue (27%). Significant work was done in the demolition segment in 2012 on projects where revenue was not recognized because of pending change orders. In addition, demolition revenue was higher in 2011 due to the revenue recorded on a large bridge demolition project in Louisiana that did not reoccur in 2012. Coastal protection revenue was atypically high in 2011. ◦ This was partially offset by an increase in revenue in the dredging segment, specifically higher margin capital projects.
Shipping Confidence Climbs to Three-year High
Shipping confidence reached its equal highest rating in the past three years, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey for the three months to end-May 2017 from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens. The average confidence level expressed by respondents to the survey was up to 6.1 out of 10 from the 5.6 recorded in the previous survey in February 2017. Increased confidence was recorded by all main categories of respondent to the survey, which launched in May 2008 with an overall confidence rating of 6.8.