Steve Robertson News

Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) on Asian routes from the Middle East could fall to a new low for the year next week as too many ships chase the number of available cargoes, ship brokers said on Friday. That came as average rates from the Middle East to Asia have fallen close to last year's low. Average rates dropped to around 32.50 on the Worldscale measure on Sept. 23, 2016, equivalent to about 42.75 this year after Worldscale rates were recalculated for 2017.

There will be significant growth in both investment and activity in the FLNG market over the next seven years, with Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasting total expenditure of $58.3 billion in its new market report. Sixty-one percent of this spend is attributed to liquefaction infrastructure, with the remainder from import and regasification facilities. Report author, Ben Wilby, commented, “The industry is about to see the installation of the first floating liquefaction projects. The application of LNG technology offshore has been proposed and studied within the industry for more than 30 years so there is intense industry interest in the first applications. The success of these first pioneering projects will no doubt impact future commitments by operators to FLNG developments.

A strong recovery in expenditure on LNG facilities now underway worldwide driven by a growing demand for natural gas. The new eighth edition of Douglas-Westwood’s (DW) World LNG Market Forecast expects that global Capex will total nearly $228bn during the 2013-2017 period, an increase of 109% over the preceding five years. The spending surge includes capital expenditure on base-load onshore and offshore fixed LNG liquefaction, LNG carriers and LNG regasification via both onshore and offshore fixed import terminals. Report author, Michelle Gomez, commented, “Activity over the next five years is underpinned by huge financial commitments to both liquefaction projects and gas import facilities.

Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast subsea hardware spending is set to double to $124 billion during 2013-2017 compared to the preceding five-year period. The new third edition of Douglas-Westwood’s Subsea Hardware Market Forecast has launched analyses the market through to 2017, examining the key activity trends to provide detailed insight for major players and new entrants alike. “The prospects for the subsea hardware sector look good, however, players will face significant challenges over the forecast period,” said report lead author Angela MacCormack, an example is Brazil which accounts for 14% of our forecast subsea Capex. Project execution is a major issue for Petrobras with 70% local content requirements and engineer shortages placing pressure on the supply chain…

Douglas-Westwood has enjoyed an active autumn providing market and commercial insight to both trade and private equity firms in the process of buying and selling oilfield services, engineering and equipment companies. “With focused and timely provision of our core service offering in market sizing, client consultations, competitive analysis and business plan reviews, our clients have completed a number of transactions in the last quarter. With one of the largest focused teams of commercial and strategy consultants, all our core  global offices have been busy on some flagship deals in the sector that have completed, while they have also been working on a high number that our clients decided to withdraw from” commented Andrew Reid, group CEO.

Latin America to account for 29% of installations 2013-2017; FPSOs remain by far the largest segment of the market; Deepwater driving growth, with FPS supply affected by financing, leasing and local content. DW forecast that between 2013 and 2017 $91bn will be spent on floating production systems (FPS) – an increase of 100% over the preceding five-year period. In Douglas-Westwood’s new World Floating Production Market Forecast 2013-2017, a total of 121 floating production units are forecast - a 37% increase. This growth is driven by multiple factors, such as a larger proportion of newbuilds and conversions compared to redeployments, a greater degree of local content resulting in increased costs and general offshore industry cost inflation.

Latin America will account for half of the projected floating production Capex over the next five years according to a new Douglas-Westwood report. their fleets of floating production systems. A key driver is Petrobras’s multi-FPS developments in its pre-salt fields in the Campos and Santos basins. Douglas-Westwood’s latest edition of the World Floating Production Market Forecast details the considerable opportunities in the sector, examines the commercial, economic and geographical factors of influence and forecasts a  total of 134 installations over the 2012-2016 period, representing a global Capex of $68bn. “The deepwater basins off West Africa, Brazil and in the US Gulf of Mexico have become established as the focus areas for FPS developments.

Despite the present economic woes, the Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) business is underpinned by compelling long-term fundamentals and is poised to become a major growth sector, with forecast expenditure of $23b expected over the period to 2016, according to Douglas-Westwood. Announcing the results of, “The World FLNG Market Report 2010-2016”, Douglas-Westwood’s latest study, at the Commercializing FLNG Conference in Singapore, Steve Robertson stated that, “The last twelve months have been difficult for the sector, however, any delays in project sanctioning have largely been attributed to the project structures and changes in upstream partners rather than any technology gaps.

The Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG) business is now rapidly developing into a sector of major significance and will be worth $8.5b by 2015, according to a new study published by energy business analysts Douglas-Westwood. The World FLNG Market Report 2009-2015 considers the market for both floating liquefaction and regasification and identifies the desire to monetize stranded gas deposits. Escalating construction costs and high local opposition to onshore LNG facilities coupled with geopolitical issues are the key drivers of the sector at present. Announcing the new study at the recent Global Floating Production Systems Conference…

High oil prices will drive oil & gas industry spends on offshore drilling to a total of $380b over the five year period to 2012; a rise of nearly 60% in comparison to the $240b spent in the previous five years. The latest edition of the ‘World Offshore Drilling Spend Forecast 2008-2012’ published by Douglas-Westwood and Energyfiles forecasts that by 2012 the global drilling market will be worth an estimated $80b, more than doubling since 2003. The data derived from the Energyfiles Global Database shows that nearly 18,000 offshore wells were drilled over the last five years. “The forecast for the next five years is generally stable but with a peak in 2010 and a slight dip in 2011, ultimately equalling a little over 20,000 for the period, and representing a rise of 13%.

While the recent high-profile problems of the western oil majors’ adventures in Russia have occupied the attention of politicians, the giant Russian oilfield services industry continues to work delivering the products and services that produce the oil. Speaking at conferences in both London and St. Petersburg, executives from energy analysts Douglas-Westwood (DWL) outlined the scale of the opportunities available to investors. John Westwood, DWL managing director speaking at the SubseaTECH 2007 Conference in St. Addressing members of the Energy Institute in London, DWL’s assistant director Steve Robertson stated that, “the oilfield services industry has evolved rapidly in recent years, driven by operators’ increasing use of outsourced services and a move to Western business models.