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Set four Clock For 2002: New ASIS report finds that next big push of tanker building to tab place between 2002-2004

Shipbuilding demand for tankers will increase between the years 2002-2004, boosted by the demand for replacement tonnage from scrapped 1970s-built VLCCs, while demand for bulk carrier newbuildings will turn positive in 2001 and steadily increase, according to a study released by The Association for Structural Improvement of The Shipbuilding Industry (ASIS), Japan.

ASIS, which has been conducting research on world shipbuilding demand since 1991, based this Atlantic Marine, /no- (Jacisono-iffle, Florida ^mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmrn Atlantic Marine, /no. - Mo&itfe, Alabama Four Yards To Serve You. Tthe ATLANTIC group of shipyards is known throughout the world for quality shipbuilding, conversion and repair. Conveniently located on the East Coast and Gulf Coast, our reputation for quality workmanship, on-time delivery and competitive pricing is unsurpassed. Call us today to discuss your shipbuilding or repair needs. tlantic Subsidiaries of Atlantic Marine Holding Company: in Jacksonville, Florida Atlantic Dry Dock Corp. Repairs & Conversions Atlantic Marine, Inc. New Construction tel 904/251-3111 fax 904/251-3500 in Mobile, Alabama Alabama Shipyard, Inc. Commercial Shipbuilding Atlantic Marine, Inc. Repairs & Conversions tel 334/690-7100 fax 334/690-7107 Visit our website.

www.atlanticmarine.com year's results on two scenario because of the uncertainty of th Asian financial crisis. The repor contains medium and long-terr shipbuilding requirement fore casts for tankers and bulk carrier of 10,000-dwt and above unt: around the year 2010.

(In the ensuing report, scenari A assumes that the Asian econom will recover within a short tern i.e. about two years; scenario assumes that the Asian econoir will recover in about four years.) The World Economy Economic expansion in the U. has continued since spring 199 The highest growth rate in the la nine years was achieved in 199 Although this growth will slight decrease after 1998, U.S. econoir growth is expected to continue be stable for the time being. European economies have bei improving since late 1996 and a expected to continue after 19£ As a whole, Europe will maints economic growth despite var: tions from country to country. Japan, reduced disposable incoi and a severe business climate ha adversely affected the entire ec(omy since 1997. As a consequence, the Japanese economy is expected to recover and maintain the same level of economic growth rate as the U.S. and Europe. On the whole, economic growth in develaped countries is estimated to be slightly over two percent after L998.

Meanwhile, in developing countries, the picture is a bit less clear. The Asian economy, which had >een characterized by strong coninual growth, is now deeply lepressed for a number of economc factors which came to a head in he autumn of 1997. It is antici- >ated, however, that Asia will ight itself and again start on the ast track of industrial and ecotomic development. It is, however, mpossible to accurately predict IOW or when this will take place, esulting in the split scenario stipilated by ASIS in its report.

Looking at other developing ountries, the Chinese economic rowth rate in 1997 was at a lightly lower level compared with revious years, but high growth fas nonetheless achieved. China dll — despite a possible stall from vents in S.E. Asia — likely mainlin its current high economic rowth rate in the medium and ing term. The economy of the forter USSR looks to be gradually 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Fleet Demand (bulk carriers) 1997 2010 improving, while Eastern European countries have also shown business expansion and economic improvement.

Trade Patterns Predictably, the Asian financial crisis, which had been and was expected to continue driving the largest percentage increases of seaborne oil trade, has had a slightly negative effect on nearterm prospects. Seaborne oil trade in 1997 showed a high increase rate of four percent because of the steady rise in oil consumption worldwide, and the slowdown in the expansion of short-haul trade due to a fall in the growth rate of oil production in Europe.

In 1998, as oil consumption in Asian countries will stagnate and short-haul oil trade will expand owing to the rise in oil productionin Europe and Latin America, seaborne oil trade will not increase very much. After 2002, seaborne oil trade is expected to increase at a stable rate. As shown in the accompanying chart entitled Seaborne Trade (Oil), the difference between the Scenario A and B statistics in 2010 is 31 million tons. On the bulk cargo side, increased crude steel production accelerated seaborne trade for iron ore and coking coal in 1997.

Simultaneously, general purpose coal transport increased due to rising consumption at thermal power stations and seaborne grain trade began to grow. All changed in 1998, though, as Asit demand, or lack thereof, of crude steel consumption reduced iron o: and coking coal shipments. In medium to long-term forecast seaborne bulk cargo trade will grow. Looking at the Seaborne Trai (Bulk Cargoes) chart, the difference between Scenario A and B will 1 20 million tons in 2010.

Based on these projects, the fleet demand for tankers was 2.7 pe cent in 1997. The rate will decrease to 1.3 percent in 1998, due to slowdown in the expansion of seaborne oil trade. The increase ra will rise after 1999 according to the expansion of seaborne oil trac The tanker fleet demand is anticipated to increase by 1.9 percent the medium- to long-term forecast. In the bulk cargo segment, t increase rate of the fleet demand for bulk carriers was 3.8 percent 1997, but will decrease .4 percent in 1998. Through 2010, fie demand for bulk carriers will increase by around two percent or moi triggered by a comparatively steady increase of bulk cargoes as m; itime transpor




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