Douglas Westwood: Shale is no Threat to Deepwater

Marinelink.com
Monday, January 06, 2014

Prodigious US shale oil production is often treated as a threat to deepwater.

 

Won’t all this oil swamp demand? Many investment banks and government agencies forecasting oil markets feel that it could. The evidence, however, suggests differently. We have contended that the world is short of oil, and this shortage, rather than changes in habits or demographics, is driving decreasing oil consumption in the advanced countries. If the oil supply increases, then any overhang will be quickly absorbed. And that’s what the record shows: US product supplied (effectively, US oil demand) reached 20 mbpd in the last four weeks, up a whopping 1 mbpd (5.3%) from the same period last year.  High oil prices have been aggressively suppressing demand in the advanced economies (and, to be fair, in the emerging economies as well). But if prices drop—as gasoline prices did in the US through much of November—demand comes roaring back to life.
 
But will it be enough to offset supply growth? Consider: US shales posted a blow-out year to November 2013, rising by 1.3 mbpd (three month average). The Canadians added nearly another 0.7 mbpd, according to the EIA, for North American production growth of an astounding 1.9 mbpd. And Brent oil prices have recently increased by a few dollars to $111 / barrel.  In the coming twelve months, substantial production growth is expected. Part of this is fuelled by continued North American unconventionals growth of 1.3 mbpd.  
 
Should we worry? There may be soft patches in the year ahead, but expect any excess supply to rapidly find a home, with prices returning to recent levels in a few months. Shales are no threat to deepwater.
 
Analysis provided by Steven Kopits, Douglas-Westwood, New York

 

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter April 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

Transocean Posts Quarterly Profit on Cost Cutting

Offshore rig contractor Transocean Ltd posted a quarterly profit, compared with a year-earlier loss, as cost cutting helped counter a slump in crude oil prices.

Oil Turns Lower after US Crude Build

A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories to fresh record highs pushed oil markets lower on Wednesday after an early rally over concerns about production

Elandra Yachts Expands, Launches Finishing Department

Elandra Yachts has added another layer of craftsmanship to its boat-building operation with the launch of a new in-house paint department at the Gold Coast plant,

Energy

Transocean Posts Quarterly Profit on Cost Cutting

Offshore rig contractor Transocean Ltd posted a quarterly profit, compared with a year-earlier loss, as cost cutting helped counter a slump in crude oil prices.

Oil Turns Lower after US Crude Build

A bigger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories to fresh record highs pushed oil markets lower on Wednesday after an early rally over concerns about production

Venezuelan Crude Sales to US Fell 8% in April

Venezuelan crude sales to the United States declined 8.3 percent in April to 734,700 barrels per day (bpd) compared with the same month of 2015, amid delays at PDVSA's main ports,

Offshore Energy

Transocean Posts Quarterly Profit on Cost Cutting

Offshore rig contractor Transocean Ltd posted a quarterly profit, compared with a year-earlier loss, as cost cutting helped counter a slump in crude oil prices.

Skandi Paraty Delivered and On-hire

Skandi Paraty, owned by Norskan Offshore Ltda, has been delivered from the yard and went on-hire on a four years contract with Petrobras.   Skandi Paraty is an AHTS,

ABB Transformers for the Most Powerful Wind Turbines

ABB will deploy 40 special transformers to equip wind turbines for an offshore wind farm in the Irish Sea. The MHI Vestas Offshore Wind turbines are 195 m (640

 
 
Maritime Security Maritime Standards Offshore Oil Pipelines Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Simulators Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.0899 sec (11 req/sec)