Douglas Westwood: Shale is no Threat to Deepwater

Marinelink.com
Monday, January 06, 2014

Prodigious US shale oil production is often treated as a threat to deepwater.

 

Won’t all this oil swamp demand? Many investment banks and government agencies forecasting oil markets feel that it could. The evidence, however, suggests differently. We have contended that the world is short of oil, and this shortage, rather than changes in habits or demographics, is driving decreasing oil consumption in the advanced countries. If the oil supply increases, then any overhang will be quickly absorbed. And that’s what the record shows: US product supplied (effectively, US oil demand) reached 20 mbpd in the last four weeks, up a whopping 1 mbpd (5.3%) from the same period last year.  High oil prices have been aggressively suppressing demand in the advanced economies (and, to be fair, in the emerging economies as well). But if prices drop—as gasoline prices did in the US through much of November—demand comes roaring back to life.
 
But will it be enough to offset supply growth? Consider: US shales posted a blow-out year to November 2013, rising by 1.3 mbpd (three month average). The Canadians added nearly another 0.7 mbpd, according to the EIA, for North American production growth of an astounding 1.9 mbpd. And Brent oil prices have recently increased by a few dollars to $111 / barrel.  In the coming twelve months, substantial production growth is expected. Part of this is fuelled by continued North American unconventionals growth of 1.3 mbpd.  
 
Should we worry? There may be soft patches in the year ahead, but expect any excess supply to rapidly find a home, with prices returning to recent levels in a few months. Shales are no threat to deepwater.
 
Analysis provided by Steven Kopits, Douglas-Westwood, New York

 

Maritime Reporter February 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

Brazil Truck Strike Diminishes

Some truck drivers in Brazil continued blocking roads on Tuesday, slowing grains deliveries to southern ports, even as adherence to the strike diminished and a

Hike in Service Tax at Indian Ports

The Indian Ministry of Finance has advised an increase in service tax and applicable at all ports. The effective date has not yet been announced. The rate

Vessels for the Future – New R&D Initiative

Looking ahead to 2020 and beyond, both maritime and inland waterways will be under ever increasing pressure, as we use them for transport, recreation and commercially.

Energy

Ferguson Appoints Partner OPS-OES

Ferguson Group Singapore, a specialist in the provision of DNV 2.7-1 / EN12079 offshore containers, reefers, tanks, waste skips, baskets, accommodation and engineering

Former BP Boss Browne is DEA Chairman

Lord John Browne heads DEA's supervisory board * LetterOne co-owners Fridman, Khan also join * Unit changes name to DEA Deutsche Erdoel AG FRANKFURT, March 3 (Reuters) - DEA,

Hike in Service Tax at Indian Ports

The Indian Ministry of Finance has advised an increase in service tax and applicable at all ports. The effective date has not yet been announced. The rate

Offshore Energy

Nabors Posts Quarterly Loss as Drilling Activity Slows

Offshore driller Nabors Industries Ltd reported a quarterly loss, hurt by lower drilling activity amid a slump in global crude prices.   The company posted a net loss of $891.

Maersk Drilling Secures Contract for Newest Drillship

Maersk Drilling was awarded a contract from eni Ghana Exploration and Production Ltd. for employment of the newbuild drillship Maersk Voyager.   The contract

Floater Orders 2014

25 Units Orders in 2014:  10 FPSOs, 1 Barge, 4 FLNGs, 7 FSRUs & 3 FSOs The overall number of orders is similar to the average ordering pace over the past 10 years,

 
 
Maritime Contracts Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.3319 sec (3 req/sec)