Douglas Westwood: Shale is no Threat to Deepwater

Marinelink.com
Monday, January 06, 2014

Prodigious US shale oil production is often treated as a threat to deepwater.

 

Won’t all this oil swamp demand? Many investment banks and government agencies forecasting oil markets feel that it could. The evidence, however, suggests differently. We have contended that the world is short of oil, and this shortage, rather than changes in habits or demographics, is driving decreasing oil consumption in the advanced countries. If the oil supply increases, then any overhang will be quickly absorbed. And that’s what the record shows: US product supplied (effectively, US oil demand) reached 20 mbpd in the last four weeks, up a whopping 1 mbpd (5.3%) from the same period last year.  High oil prices have been aggressively suppressing demand in the advanced economies (and, to be fair, in the emerging economies as well). But if prices drop—as gasoline prices did in the US through much of November—demand comes roaring back to life.
 
But will it be enough to offset supply growth? Consider: US shales posted a blow-out year to November 2013, rising by 1.3 mbpd (three month average). The Canadians added nearly another 0.7 mbpd, according to the EIA, for North American production growth of an astounding 1.9 mbpd. And Brent oil prices have recently increased by a few dollars to $111 / barrel.  In the coming twelve months, substantial production growth is expected. Part of this is fuelled by continued North American unconventionals growth of 1.3 mbpd.  
 
Should we worry? There may be soft patches in the year ahead, but expect any excess supply to rapidly find a home, with prices returning to recent levels in a few months. Shales are no threat to deepwater.
 
Analysis provided by Steven Kopits, Douglas-Westwood, New York

 

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter July 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

U.S. Awards $61.8 Mln for Port Projects

U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Fox today announced 40 awards totaling nearly $500 million in funding for the  FY 2016 Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) grants.

Moody's: Challenges Ahead for Asian Port Operators

Moody's Investors Service says lackluster global growth, weak commodity prices, high capital expenditure commitments and a liner industry struggling with overcapacity

Swiber Applies for Judicial Management Instead of Liquidation

Singapore oilfield services company Swiber Holdings Ltd said on Friday it has applied to place itself under judicial management instead of liquidation.   Swiber

Energy

China Refineries Enters Global Oil Trade

During the last year, China’s “teapot” refiners are helping to boost China’s crude import demand and their influence is expanding, says Clarkson Research Services.

First US LNG Shipment Goes to China

The first liquefied natural gas vessel from the lower 48 U.S. states is on its way to China, according to a Reuters interactive map on Friday, the latest sign that

Swiber Applies for Judicial Management Instead of Liquidation

Singapore oilfield services company Swiber Holdings Ltd said on Friday it has applied to place itself under judicial management instead of liquidation.   Swiber

Offshore Energy

Swiber Applies for Judicial Management Instead of Liquidation

Singapore oilfield services company Swiber Holdings Ltd said on Friday it has applied to place itself under judicial management instead of liquidation.   Swiber

US Oil Drillers Add Rigs for 5th Week in a Row

U.S. drillers this week added oil rigs for a fifth consecutive week, Baker Hughes Inc said on Friday, but the oilfield services provider and some analysts cast

Damen PSV for Wilson Sons Ultratug Offshore

Wilson Sons Ultratug Offshore, a joint venture between Wilson Sons and the Chilean maritime services provider Ultramar, has taken delivery of a Damen PSV 5000.

 
 
Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.0979 sec (10 req/sec)