Douglas Westwood: Shale is no Threat to Deepwater

Marinelink.com
Monday, January 06, 2014

Prodigious US shale oil production is often treated as a threat to deepwater.

 

Won’t all this oil swamp demand? Many investment banks and government agencies forecasting oil markets feel that it could. The evidence, however, suggests differently. We have contended that the world is short of oil, and this shortage, rather than changes in habits or demographics, is driving decreasing oil consumption in the advanced countries. If the oil supply increases, then any overhang will be quickly absorbed. And that’s what the record shows: US product supplied (effectively, US oil demand) reached 20 mbpd in the last four weeks, up a whopping 1 mbpd (5.3%) from the same period last year.  High oil prices have been aggressively suppressing demand in the advanced economies (and, to be fair, in the emerging economies as well). But if prices drop—as gasoline prices did in the US through much of November—demand comes roaring back to life.
 
But will it be enough to offset supply growth? Consider: US shales posted a blow-out year to November 2013, rising by 1.3 mbpd (three month average). The Canadians added nearly another 0.7 mbpd, according to the EIA, for North American production growth of an astounding 1.9 mbpd. And Brent oil prices have recently increased by a few dollars to $111 / barrel.  In the coming twelve months, substantial production growth is expected. Part of this is fuelled by continued North American unconventionals growth of 1.3 mbpd.  
 
Should we worry? There may be soft patches in the year ahead, but expect any excess supply to rapidly find a home, with prices returning to recent levels in a few months. Shales are no threat to deepwater.
 
Analysis provided by Steven Kopits, Douglas-Westwood, New York

 

Maritime Reporter July 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Finance

Substantial Demand Underscores Need for TIGER Grants

U.S. Transportation Secretary Anthony Foxx has announced that applications to the U.S. Department of Transportation for its seventh round of Transportation Investment

Diana to Acquire Two Post-Panamax Containerships

Diana Containerships Inc. announced that yesterday it signed, through two separate wholly-owned subsidiaries, two Memoranda of Agreement to purchase from an unaffiliated

Intelsat Records $598 mln Q2 Revenue

Satellite services provider Intelsat S.A. has reported total revenue of $598.1 million and net income attributable to Intelsat S.A. of $60.2 million, or $0.47 per common share on a diluted basis,

Energy

US Senate Energy Panel Votes to Lift Oil Export Ban

The U.S. Senate Energy Committee on Thursday passed a bill that would lift a decades-old ban on the export of crude oil.   The 22-member panel passed the bill

Activists Block Shell's Arctic Drilling Quest

Greenpeace protestors dangling from a bridge on Thursday in Portland, Oregon, halted an icebreaker that Royal Dutch Shell needs in northern Alaska before it can

MARAD to Host Meeting on Proposed Delfin LNG License

MARAD Announces Public Scoping Meetings for Proposed Delfin Liquefied Natural Gas Deepwater Port Export Facility.   On July 29, the Maritime Administration

Offshore Energy

Activists Block Shell's Arctic Drilling Quest

Greenpeace protestors dangling from a bridge on Thursday in Portland, Oregon, halted an icebreaker that Royal Dutch Shell needs in northern Alaska before it can

Eni Mulls Mozambique LNG Supply Deal

Italian oil and gas group Eni is holding discussions with a potential buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply from its floating export project in Mozambique, an executive said on Thursday.

Mexico to Postpone Deep Water Auction

Mexico, which has started to open its nationalized oil industry to additional private investment, will postpone auctions for deep-water oil exploration and production

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Navigation Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Repair Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1464 sec (7 req/sec)