Oil Market Fundamentals News

OPEC on Monday predicted higher demand for its crude oil next year, sticking to its view that a strategy of letting prices fall will tame the U.S. shale boom and cut a global surplus. The monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also said a weaker outlook for China would contribute to slower global oil demand growth next year. "U.S. oil production has shown signs of slowing," OPEC said in the report. OPEC said it expected demand for its crude next year to average 30.31 million barrels per day (bpd), up 190,000 bpd from last month, despite the slower demand growth overall due to a weaker outlook for Latin America and China. Oil is trading below $50 a barrel, less than half its level of June 2014.

NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that oil inventories are higher and crude demand is lower. In the U.S., stock surplus to last year is roughly flat. In Japan, crude stocks draw amid peak run rates. Oil inventories are higher, crude demand is lower and PIRA is beginning to question the expected 2H 2014 and 2015 lift off in economic activity. Also, add in unrelenting upward revisions to U.S. oil supply growth with non-OPEC supply additions continuing to substantially outpace demand growth and you have a combination of factors pointing to lower prices. This past week’s inventory increase kept the year-on-year overall stock surplus to around 4 million barrels.

Tanker operator’s hopes have been buoyed recently by a sharp upturn in crude tanker rates. Historically, tanker rates over the last two months of the year are the seasonally strongest, and this seems to be playing out this year, according to PIRA Energy Group's latest Market Recap. VLCC rates have risen to the highest levels since November 2012, supported by the end of the Far East refinery maintenance period and record levels of Chinese imports. Western fixtures are also high in November as term contract formula prices for Saudi, Kuwaiti and other Mideast grades, which are indexed to U.S. domestic sour crudes, are more than $10.00 per barrel below those for shipments to Europe and Asia. PIRA Energy Group report that on the week, U.S.

China reached this milestone in December 2012, as its net petroleum imports surpassed those of the U.S. In a recent press release NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that weak reported oil demand in the U.S. reduced the commercial stock draw. In Japan, crude runs began to ease, which built crude stocks. Every year for at least the last two decades, Chinese oil demand has increased in both absolute and relative terms, that is, as a percent of world total demand. Since the price spike of 2008 and the following recession, U.S. oil demand has been declining in both absolute and relative terms, for all years except 2010. This, coupled with growing U.S. oil production, has led to a downward trend in U.S. net oil imports, while Chinese net oil imports continue to grow inexorably.

The Gulf of Mexico offshore market is quickly shaping up to be the driving maritime force of 2001 and beyond. While the market today is, and will always be, largely dependent on the political wranglings of OPEC nations, the recent consolidation which has swept the oil majors and, to some degree, the offshore drilling and supply and service companies, has helped to alter some of the traditional instabilities. For example, despite the fact that the price per barrel of oil has elevated to and remained in the mid $20s to low $30s for much of the year, offshore activity in the Gulf of Mexico has been sluggish to initially respond. While it appears that offshore business in the region will rebound strongly in the latter part of 2000 through 2001…