IEA: Oil Outlook Through 2011

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

According to the International Energy Agency’s July 2010 Oil Market Report, global oil demand through 2011 is projected to rise 1.6% or 1.3 mb/dyearonyear to 87.8 mb/d, driven entirely by non-OECD country consumption, as OECD countries continue to see a gradual decline. This is a slight reduction from 2010’s 1.8 mb/d growth, fueled in part by an early, buoyant global recovery and stimulus funds.

The report, released today, is filled with a number of caveats, particularly the current and future direction of the global economic recovery, which has waned in the early summer months.  IEA bases its oil demand projection on the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, with global GDP growth reaching +4.3% in 2011 from +4.1% in 2010 as recovery from the 2008/2009 recession continues apace.  In its report, IEA notes that sustained economic recovery cannot be taken for granted, theorizing that if 2011 economic growth is 30% lower than its working assumption, global oil demand could be around 1.0 mb/d less, at 86.8 mb/d instead of the anticipated 87.8 mb/d.

Relatively high, stable crude prices, rising spending, and a lull in upstream cost inflation have reinvigorated growth, and growth in Brazil, Colombia and Canada give an Americasoriented slant to 2011 nonOPEC growth.

Looking in the U.S., IES cut 30 kb/d from its 2010/2011 US Gulf of Mexico estimate because of delays following the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

As just today the Obama Administration announced a new moratorium on deepwater drilling until November 2010, IE notes that project delays could further curb future US supply pending current and future drilling restrictions.

Politics and economics aside, the IEA July 2010 Oil Market Report notes that midstream bottlenecks look unlikely between now and end2011. Refinery additions continue apace, with 2.3 mb/d of new primary capacity (much of it in China, the Asia Pacific and Middle East) being added globally during 2010/2011, which will cap systemwide utilisation rates. Shipyards will also deliver over 70 mdwt of new tanker tonnage this year and next. Midstream and downstream markets are notoriously cyclical, and it looks like both refining margins and freight rates could underperform, despite the economic upturn foreseen in most consensus forecasts.

Highlights from the IEA July 2010 Oil Market Report:

• Benchmark crude prices traded in a $7179/bbl range in June, after a volatile May.

• OECD industry stocks rose for a second consecutive month in May, across all regions and by a combined 35.0 mb, reaching 2 757 mb or 61.0 days of forward demand cover.

• Global oil demand for 2011 is expected to rise by 1.6% or 1.3 mb/dyearonyear to 87.8 mb/d.

• OPEC crude oil supply averaged 28.9 mb/d in June, down by 65 kb/d from May.

• NonOPEC supply could rise by 0.4 mb/d in 2011 to 52.8 mb/d, following 0.8 mb/d growth in 2010.

 

Maritime Reporter June 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Offshore

Hornbeck Offshore Ride High on Q2 2014 Results

Hornbeck Offshore Services, Inc. has announced its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2014.  Following are highlights for this period and excerpts

Crowley Maritime Open Singapore Office

Crowley Maritime Corp. says it has opened a full-service project management and logistics solutions office in Singapore under the leadership of industry veteran William Hill.

BOEM Extends O&G Lease Comment Period

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is extending the public comment period for the Request for Information (RFI) and Comments on the Preparation of the

Energy

First Panels Installed at Australia’s Biggest Solar Plant

The Australian Renewable Energy Agency today celebrated a major milestone with the installation of the first solar panels at AGL’s large-scale solar plant in Nyngan, NSW.

Exxon Mobil Corporation Declares 3Q Dividend

The Board of Directors of Exxon Mobil Corporation yesterday declared a cash dividend of 69 cents per share on the Common Stock, payable on September 10, 2014 to

FortisBC Set to Expand its Tilbury LNG Facility

FortisBC Energy Inc. today selected Bechtel Canada Co. (Bechtel) as the contractor for its Tilbury LNG Facility Expansion Project in Delta, B.C. (Project). The

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Pod Propulsion Salvage Ship Repair Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1285 sec (8 req/sec)