DNV Predicts Ship Propulsion Technology Uptake to 2020

Press Release
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Tor-E-Svensen: Photo credit DNV

DNV simulation model used global shipping data and technology specific information to predict the deployment of emission reduction and energy efficiency technologies up to 2020

The results show that high fuel costs will result in a drive towards more energy efficient ships ahead of the EEDI regulatory timeframe. Fuel choices up to 2020 will be driven by the time spent in an Emissions Control Area (ECA), but distillate is a more likely option than scrubbers for most ships towards 2020.

Tor Svensen, DNV's President informs:

By 2020, it is expected that new tankers, bulkers and container vessels will be up to 30 per cent more energy efficient than today’s newbuildings. DNV predicts that one-third of the reductions will be cost effective for shipowners. The Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) will be the driver for the remaining two-thirds of the efficiency gains.

These results have been obtained by examining the technology choices available to ensure regulatory compliance and how these technology options will be adopted based on simulated investment decisions for individual ships.

The model can support owners and managers in their business-critical decisions by providing a ship-specific scenario analysis as well as market predictions for specific ship segments or the entire world fleet. The model is not restricted to the newbuilding market alone, and offers insights on fuel choice, exhaust gas treatment and ballast water treatment for existing ships as well. Over 20 technology options have been included in the modelling process.

The results of a survey conducted March 2012 and involving a number of the world’s leading shipping companies have been used as the basis for the investment decisions. The model also factors in fuel availability, regulatory timelines and the net growth in the world fleet, amongst other things. This is not an optimisation model trying to predict the optimal choices for the world fleet, but a model that aims to simulate the most likely outcomes amongst a multitude of technology options and preferences in a highly uncertain world.

An analysis of fuel choices reveals that between 10 and 15 per cent of the newbuildings delivered up to 2020 will have the capacity for burning LNG as fuel. This equates to about 1,000 ships. Larger vessels will benefit more from using LNG than smaller vessels. Furthermore, a gas-fuelled engine can be justified if a ship spends about 30 per cent of its sailing time in ECAs. In 2020, the number of ships using LNG will increase significantly with the introduction of a global sulphur limit.

Incorrect investment decisions could be devastating for individual shipowners and collectively they could impact negatively on the environment as well,” says DNV President Tor Svensen. DNV believes the industry must work together to avoid a legacy of sub-optimal ships entering the global fleet in the lead up to 2020. This model gives shipowners a clear technology and market context to work in, with the opportunity for targeted analysis of individual ship profiles.

Current annual demand for distillate fuels is around 30 million tonnes. This will rise to 45 million tonnes when the 0.1 per cent limit comes into force in ECAs and will be around 200-250 million tonnes by 2020. Conversely, the demand for heavy fuel oil will plummet from around 290 million tonnes in 2019 to 100 million tonnes once expected global emissions regulations enter into force in 2020.

Shipowners' costs will increase sharply in 2020 when even more stringent air emissions regulations take effect. It will be unfamiliar territory for us all as the fuel market adjusts,” says Mr Svensen. The investment decisions made over the next few years will be critical preparation for this time and DNV is dedicated to ensuring that the industry as a whole is ready and able to make the correct decisions to ensure responsible environmental stewardship that also makes good business sense.

Maritime Reporter November 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

Madsen to Chair Norway’s Research Council Executive Board

Henrik O. Madsen appointed chairman of the executive board of the Research Council of Norway   DNV GL president and CEO Henrik O. Madsen was appointed as chairman

Port of Houston Expecting Record Year

The Port of Houston Authority is expecting 2014 to close as a banner year for the port, with 34 million tons of cargo handled through November, Executive Director

Hapag-Lloyd Completes CSAV Merger Capital Increase

Hapag-Lloyd completed the planned capital increase of EUR 370 million (approximately $452.5 million) as part of the business combination with the Chilean shipping

Finance

Larger Tankers May Offer Better Return Chances

Investors looking for returns in the tanker markets can invest their capital in a variety of ways. Should an owner invest in a VLCC or an Aframax? How about an

US Plans to Shut Royalty Loophole on Coal Exports

U.S. coal companies will no longer be able to settle royalties at low domestic prices when they make lucrative sales to Asia according to reforms proposed by the Interior Department on Friday.

Hapag-Lloyd Completes CSAV Merger Capital Increase

Hapag-Lloyd completed the planned capital increase of EUR 370 million (approximately $452.5 million) as part of the business combination with the Chilean shipping

Environmental

NZ Report: Human Error to Blame for Rena Grounding

New Zealand's Transport Accident Investigation Commission (TAIC) published its final report into the grounding of containership Rena in October 2011. The TAIC’s

Costa Rica Approves APM Terminals Project

Port operator APM Terminals, a unit of Denmark's A.P. Moller-Maersk, said on Friday Costa Rica's environment agency had approved the construction of its Moin Container Terminal project.

NOAA: US to See More Floods from Sea Level Rise

Most of U.S. coast may see 30 or more days a year of floods up to 2 feet above high tides. By 2050, a majority of U.S. coastal areas are likely to be threatened

Fuels & Lubes

Liquefaction Terminals to Dominate LNG Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure (Capex) on global LNG facilities is expected to total $259 billion (bn) over the period 2015-2019, with investments expected to be 88% larger

Wärtsilä to Begin Building LNG Terminal in January

Wärtsilä has been given full notice to proceed (NTP) from Manga LNG Oy for the supply of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminal in Tornio, Northern Finland.

Italian Shipbuilder Pleads Guilty to Environmental Crimes

An Italian shipping firm based in Genoa, Italy, pleaded guilty to violating the Act to Prevent Pollution from Ships by falsifying required ships’ documents to hide

Marine Power

Keeping to the Schedule in the Pacific Northwest

When a tightly scheduled repower for the Kodiak-based trawler Sea Mac in early December took a very bad turn, Mike Fourtner used his 25 years of fishing experience

New Chinese Shipyard Launches First Ship

The new shipyard facility of Honghua Offshore Oil & Gas Equipment Company in Jiangsu, China, has launched its first ship, an IMT982 Platform Supply Vessel. The vessel,

Multraship Buys Three More Tugboats from Damen

Multraship and Damen Shipyards Group agreed on three new ASD (Azimuth Stern Drive) Tugs, all for delivery to Multraship in 2015. After delivery in Vietnam, scheduled

People in the News

Madsen to Chair Norway’s Research Council Executive Board

Henrik O. Madsen appointed chairman of the executive board of the Research Council of Norway   DNV GL president and CEO Henrik O. Madsen was appointed as chairman

Damen Shipyards Galati wins Dutch Romanian Award

Damen Shipyards Galati has been presented with the Dutch Romanian Business Award for its Corporate Social Responsibility plan, particularly the Group’s community investment initiatives.

Lowrance Renews Insight Genesis College Cup

Lowrance®, a world-leading brand in fishing electronics since 1957— announced today the renewal of its Insight Genesis™ College Cup. In its second year, the

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Security Naval Architecture Pipelines Pod Propulsion Ship Electronics Ship Repair Ship Simulators Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1998 sec (5 req/sec)