DNV Predicts Ship Propulsion Technology Uptake to 2020

Press Release
Tuesday, June 05, 2012
Tor-E-Svensen: Photo credit DNV

DNV simulation model used global shipping data and technology specific information to predict the deployment of emission reduction and energy efficiency technologies up to 2020

The results show that high fuel costs will result in a drive towards more energy efficient ships ahead of the EEDI regulatory timeframe. Fuel choices up to 2020 will be driven by the time spent in an Emissions Control Area (ECA), but distillate is a more likely option than scrubbers for most ships towards 2020.

Tor Svensen, DNV's President informs:

By 2020, it is expected that new tankers, bulkers and container vessels will be up to 30 per cent more energy efficient than today’s newbuildings. DNV predicts that one-third of the reductions will be cost effective for shipowners. The Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI) will be the driver for the remaining two-thirds of the efficiency gains.

These results have been obtained by examining the technology choices available to ensure regulatory compliance and how these technology options will be adopted based on simulated investment decisions for individual ships.

The model can support owners and managers in their business-critical decisions by providing a ship-specific scenario analysis as well as market predictions for specific ship segments or the entire world fleet. The model is not restricted to the newbuilding market alone, and offers insights on fuel choice, exhaust gas treatment and ballast water treatment for existing ships as well. Over 20 technology options have been included in the modelling process.

The results of a survey conducted March 2012 and involving a number of the world’s leading shipping companies have been used as the basis for the investment decisions. The model also factors in fuel availability, regulatory timelines and the net growth in the world fleet, amongst other things. This is not an optimisation model trying to predict the optimal choices for the world fleet, but a model that aims to simulate the most likely outcomes amongst a multitude of technology options and preferences in a highly uncertain world.

An analysis of fuel choices reveals that between 10 and 15 per cent of the newbuildings delivered up to 2020 will have the capacity for burning LNG as fuel. This equates to about 1,000 ships. Larger vessels will benefit more from using LNG than smaller vessels. Furthermore, a gas-fuelled engine can be justified if a ship spends about 30 per cent of its sailing time in ECAs. In 2020, the number of ships using LNG will increase significantly with the introduction of a global sulphur limit.

Incorrect investment decisions could be devastating for individual shipowners and collectively they could impact negatively on the environment as well,” says DNV President Tor Svensen. DNV believes the industry must work together to avoid a legacy of sub-optimal ships entering the global fleet in the lead up to 2020. This model gives shipowners a clear technology and market context to work in, with the opportunity for targeted analysis of individual ship profiles.

Current annual demand for distillate fuels is around 30 million tonnes. This will rise to 45 million tonnes when the 0.1 per cent limit comes into force in ECAs and will be around 200-250 million tonnes by 2020. Conversely, the demand for heavy fuel oil will plummet from around 290 million tonnes in 2019 to 100 million tonnes once expected global emissions regulations enter into force in 2020.

Shipowners' costs will increase sharply in 2020 when even more stringent air emissions regulations take effect. It will be unfamiliar territory for us all as the fuel market adjusts,” says Mr Svensen. The investment decisions made over the next few years will be critical preparation for this time and DNV is dedicated to ensuring that the industry as a whole is ready and able to make the correct decisions to ensure responsible environmental stewardship that also makes good business sense.

Maritime Reporter March 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

ABS CEO Lays Out Vision for Technical Leadership at CMA Shipping

During the recent CMA Shipping 2015 conference in Stamford, Connecticut, ABS Chairman and CEO Christopher J. Wiernicki provided the conference's keynote address

Oceanex Named One of Canada’s Best Managed Companies

Oceanex Inc. was named one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies Gold Standard Members in 2014. This national award is sponsored by Deloitte, CIBC, National Post,

Navy Awards Austal $691M for Two Littoral Combat Ships

The U.S. Navy has ordered two new littoral combat ships from Austal, the shipbuilder said in a press release today. The two orders, worth $691 million, are part

Finance

BMT Partners with Aage Hempel

BMT SMART (BMT),  has announced  that Aage Hempel has become an accredited service partner.  This agreement will provide both organizations with the opportunity

Tanker Backlog Builds at Basra

Ships face up to a three week wait; bad weather in February delayed loading, created backlog. * April intake to be reduced to clear backlog By Keith Wallis SINGAPORE,

U.S. Port Delay Boost February Air Freight

Global air freight volumes rose 11.7 percent year-on-year in February, driven by the Chinese New Year, the International Air Transport Association said on Wednesday.

Environmental

Hess Selects BMT for Stampede Marine Monitoring System

BMT Scientific Marine Services (BMT), an international maritime design, engineering and risk management consultancy, has been selected by Hess Corporation to

Blaze hits Mexico Oil Platform, 300 Workers Evacuated

Mexican state-run oil company Pemex said on Wednesday that it was fighting a fire on oil platform in Campeche Bay on the Gulf of Mexico, home to the country's biggest oil field,

Focus on Environment at Suny Maritime

The State University of New York Maritime College’s 140th Anniversary Speaker Series presented a panel discussion on March 26 in the College’s Maritime Academic Center.

Fuels & Lubes

U.S. Submits Formal Plan for Paris Climate Talks

The United States on Tuesday formally submitted its climate change strategy to the United Nations, outlining domestic measures it is taking to achieve up to a 28

Shipbuilding: Mitsui Delivers Bulk Carrier

Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. (MES) completed and delivered a 56,000 dwt type bulk carrier M.V. Desert Osprey (MES Hull No. 1862) at its Chiba Works

Palfinger Chooses NAMJet Waterjets

Netherlands-based Palfinger Boats has launched the first of two Damen-designed FRSQ 1200 fast-rescue/oil response vessels.   Built in Harderwijk, Netherlands,

Marine Power

China's Artificial Islands in South China Sea Raises U.S. Concerns

China has been building artificial islands on reefs in the many disputed areas around the South China Sea. The unprecedented land reclamation currently being conducted

Going Nuclear in Indian Ocean

As India, Pakistan and perhaps China develop their naval nuclear forces, they will enter increasingly murky waters, says a report published in the National Interest.

US to Test 'Submarine' Drone That Can Launch from Ocean Floor

USA’s Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is testing a drone that can hibernate on the ocean floor for years at a time before being launched to the

People in the News

ABS CEO Lays Out Vision for Technical Leadership at CMA Shipping

During the recent CMA Shipping 2015 conference in Stamford, Connecticut, ABS Chairman and CEO Christopher J. Wiernicki provided the conference's keynote address

Oceanex Named One of Canada’s Best Managed Companies

Oceanex Inc. was named one of Canada’s Best Managed Companies Gold Standard Members in 2014. This national award is sponsored by Deloitte, CIBC, National Post,

Donjon-SMIT Relocating to Houston

Alexandria, VA- Donjon-SMIT, the unique provider of Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90) Salvage and Marine Firefighting (SMFF) services established by Donjon Marine Co.

Classification Societies

ABS CEO Lays Out Vision for Technical Leadership at CMA Shipping

During the recent CMA Shipping 2015 conference in Stamford, Connecticut, ABS Chairman and CEO Christopher J. Wiernicki provided the conference's keynote address

Focus on Environment at Suny Maritime

The State University of New York Maritime College’s 140th Anniversary Speaker Series presented a panel discussion on March 26 in the College’s Maritime Academic Center.

All American Marine Delivers Ferry to Seattle

All American Marine, Inc. (AAM) today announced the delivery of a new passenger ferry that will serve the city of Seattle.    The vessel, MV Sally Fox, was dedicated

 
 
Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2402 sec (4 req/sec)