Report: Ship Scrapping Growth Could be Good News

Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Braemar Seascope Research Manager Mark Williams

Braemar Seascope’s demolition brokers are working extra hard this year, which may be good news
for everyone. Dry cargo demand growth is running at strong levels due to the twin processes of industrialization and urbanization in emerging markets. Annual average demand growth between 2011 and 2015 is likely to match and may even exceed the annual 5.2% growth witnessed between 2004 and 2008 – the years of the superboom in dry cargo vessel earnings. However, the massive amount of vessel ordering during and after the boom has led to the currently epressed freight market for dry bulk carriers. Bulker fleet gross growth (i.e. counting new deliveries but not scrapping) is likely to be in the order of 12% a year until 2013 as we add more than 3,000 newbuildings to the circa 8,100 ships that existed at the end of 2010. But scrapping can make a difference in these markets. In order to bring net fleet growth (i.e. deliveries minus deletions) into line with demand growth expectations, every bulk carrier built before 1985 ‐ nearly 1,500 ships – would have to be scrapped by the end of 2013. This would bring fleet growth down to an average 6.3% a year.
In other words, to return supply and demand growth to balance, the industry must scrap 12 bulk
carriers every week for the next two years and four months without ordering any further bulkers
for delivery before 2014.
The good news is that demolition at these levels is less outlandish than it may seem. According to the Braemar Seascope Demometer, 409 bulk carriers totalling almost 20 million dwt were sold for demolition in 2011 up to the end of August, at a rate of over 11 a week. This amount of scrapping far exceeds previous records of 11.8m dwt in 1999 and 11.2m dwt in 2009. If scrapping continues at this rate for the balance of 2011, some 29m or 30m dwt will be removed from the bulk carrier fleet, offsetting the 85m dwt Braemar Seascope expects to be delivered in 2011.
Braemar Seascope Research Manager Mark Williams, says: “There’s a good chance that bulk carrier
fleet growth can be kept down to 9% this year if these levels of scrapping keep up. We just have to hope that the global economy pulls out of the doldrums and that demand keeps up with
expectations.”

Maritime Reporter June 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

Bulk Carrier Trends

Proforma DAs on the Go

DA-Desk has launched a new service under its PortSpend ManagementTM solution, the Proforma Disbursement Account (PDA) Approval Mobile App. The mobile app is available

Shipping Gloomiest Since 2009

The shipping industry is the most pessimistic in six years about its prospects as a fleet surplus persists, according to a survey by law firm Norton Rose Fulbright, says a report in Reuters.

South Korea Tops in Shipbuild Orders

South Korean shipbuilders, led by industry leader Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., have secured the largest amount of new orders in the first six months of the year to retain the top slot,

Finance

Buoys in Disputed Waters Roil South China Sea Dispute

Buoys stretched "as far as eye could see" - Philippine sailor. The Philippine navy recently found a large steel marker bearing Chinese inscriptions and hundreds

Navis N4 TOS Open in Liverpool Terminal

Peel Ports, owners and operators of the Port of Liverpool, has achieved a major milestone in its multi-million investment program to transform the port into Europe’s

AkzoNobel’s Carbon Credits Methodology Wins Award

AkzoNobel’s landmark carbon credits methodology for the shipping industry has won the Best Offsetting Project award in the 2015 Voluntary Carbon Market Rankings.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Standards Naval Architecture Navigation Offshore Oil Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2017 sec (5 req/sec)