Dry Bulk Panamax's Face Uncertain Future

Drewry
Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Sub-Capesize sectors, previously better performers than Capes, now face an equally uncertain future according to recent Drewry analysis.

Demand for Panamax ships improved over the 2nd quarter 2012, primarily due to an increase in grain volumes and Asian coal imports. Significant increases in vessel demand on the transatlantic grain route employed a sizeable fleet of Panamax vessels, leading to an improvement in earnings. Coal demand was also buoyed by fears that Indonesia will introduce a coal export tax, prompting China to increase imports and stock pile huge volumes of Indonesian coal.

While coal export restrictions from Indonesia will be negative for the dry bulk market, as well the decrease in demand from China due to its huge reserves, the US is emerging as a major coal exporter as it starts to utilise cheaper gas supplies spurred on by shale gas development. It is now in a position to export its thermal coal that will supplement tonne-mile demand for Panamax ships.

Given the changes in trade the Dry Bulk Forecaster expects Panamax demand to edge up by about 5% in 2012, with annual increases of close to 6% thereafter until 2017. Under this scenario demand is unlikely to be a problem.

But the same cannot be said about Panamax supply. Rahul Sharan senior dry analyst at Drewry Maritime Research is of the opinion that “The Panamax segment is likely to witness oversupply comparable to that of the Capesize sector in the current market”.

In this respect Panamax supply continued to expand in the second quarter of 2012, especially in the modern post-Panamax segment (80-110,000 dwt). The fleet grew from 161.7 to 167.5 million dwt, an increase of 3.6% but post-Panamax registered a 9.1% growth due to the large orderbook.

Drewry expects as much as 36 million dwt of new Panamax tonnage to hit the water in 2012, 50% more than in 2011, leaving it potentially as one of the most over-supplied ship sectors of the dry bulk market in 2013.

 

Maritime Reporter June 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

USCG Galveston Unit Change of Command

A change-of-command ceremony will be held Thursday morning, July 24, to see a Coast Guard lieutenant commander and graduate of Houston's Alief Hastings High School, Lt.

Panama Canal to Celebrate 100 Years

To commemorate its centennial, the Panama Canal will host a series of events August 14-15 in Panama City to highlight the impact of the waterway during the past century.

Statoil, Repsol, ExxonMobil Win Colombian Offshore License

Statoil announced today that it has been awarded interest in the COL4 license offshore Colombia in the Caribbean Sea in the 2014 Colombia Licensing Round, along with Respol and ExxonMobil.

Bulk Carrier Trends

Freeport Says Indonesia Exports Could Resume Soon

Freeport-McMoRan Inc said on Wednesday it expects to "imminently" sign an agreement with Indonesia that would enable it to immediately resume copper concentrate

Global Ocean Trade: Latest Shipbuilding Orders

No tankship orders noted the past week by Clarkson Hellas in their latest S&P Weekly Bulletin, but no lack of orders in the dry bulk carrier market, all from Far East shipbuilders.

Scorpio Bulkers Gets $540m Loan for Newbuilds

Scorpio Bulkers Inc. announced that it has received a commitment for a $540 million loan facility and provides an update on the financing of its fleet. On July 21,

News

USCG Galveston Unit Change of Command

A change-of-command ceremony will be held Thursday morning, July 24, to see a Coast Guard lieutenant commander and graduate of Houston's Alief Hastings High School, Lt.

Concordia Expected to Reach Genoa Saturday

The Crowley Maritime Corp. subsidiary TITAN Salvage and partner Micoperi have confirmed that the Costa Concordia – the Concordia class cruise ship that wrecked along shores of Giglio Island,

Panama Canal to Celebrate 100 Years

To commemorate its centennial, the Panama Canal will host a series of events August 14-15 in Panama City to highlight the impact of the waterway during the past century.

Ferries

Korea Ferry Businessman's Body Located

Yoo had been target of South Korea's largest manhunt; Failure of police to catch Yoo had been burden for Park government. The body of South Korea's most wanted man,

South Korea Police: Body May Be Ferry Disaster Fugitive's

South Korean police are trying to confirm the identity of a body they believe may have been the fugitive head of the family that owned the operator of a ferry that capsized in April,

Canadian Ferries Welcome Govt. Funding

The Canadian Ferry Operators Association (CFOA) welcomed today’s announcement of $58 million over two years to support ferries in Eastern Canada. “We are happy

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Maritime Standards Navigation Offshore Oil Port Authority Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar Winch
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2138 sec (5 req/sec)