Ship Fuel of Choice to Remain Heavy Oil in 2030: New Analysis

MarineLink.com
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Ship propulsion: Image courtesy of LR/UCL

A new study by Lloyds Register and University College, London, discusses the prospects of marine fuels in 'Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030', giving insights into future fuel demand for the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker sectors (which represent about 70% of the global shipping industry's fuel demands). A brief overview follows:

Fuel oil remains the main fuel for deep sea shipping; LNG develops a deep sea bunker market share of 11%; low sulphur heavy fuel oil and hydrogen emerge as alternatives in certain scenarios.

Three scenarios are identified in the study as follows:

1.Status Quo
The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.

2. Global Commons
A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow.

3. Competing Nations
States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth.

Marine Fuel Mix by 2030

So what does the marine fuel mix look like for containers, bulk carriers and tankers by 2030? In two words: decreasingly conventional. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) will still be very much around in 2030, but in different proportions for each scenario: 47% in Status Quo, to a higher 66% in Competing Nations and a 58% share in Global Commons, the most optimistic of scenarios for society. A high share of HFO, of course, means a high uptake of emissions abatement technology when global emissions regulations enter into force.

The declining share of HFO will be offset by low sulphur alternatives (MDO/MGO or LSHFO) and by LNG, and this will happen differently for each ship type and scenario. LNG will reach a maximum 11% share by 2030 in Status Quo. Interestingly, there is also the entry of Hydrogen as an emerging shipping fuel in the 2030 Global Commons scenario which favours the uptake of low carbon technologies stimulated by a significant carbon price.

"I think that the report underlines that any transition from a dependency on HFO will be an evolutionary process," comments Project Leader, Dimitris Argyros LRs Lead Environmental Consultant. "LNG is forecast to grow from a very low base to a significant market share by 2030 - even if there is no major retro-fit revolution most of the LNG take-up will be in new buildings. But it is important to note that an 11% share in 2030 is the equivalent in volume of about 20% of the bunker market today."

"What we can say is that the uptake of engine and alternative propulsion technology and the emergence of non-fossil fuels can only be driven by a society's ability to create a world with lower GHG emissions the technology is not the barrier. Key will be policy and markets. Shipping can control its own destiny to some extent but shipowners can only focus on compliance and profitability. If society wants lower GHG emissions and cleaner fuel, change in shipping has to be driven by practical regulation and market forces so that cleaner, more efficient ships, are more profitable than less efficient ships with higher GHG emissions."

To download a .PDF copy of the report: www.lr.org/gmft2030
Hard copies can be ordered from the LR Webstore at: www.webstore.lr.org

 

 

 

Maritime Reporter July 2015 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

GasLog Orders Two LNG Carriers

GasLog Ltd. today announced that it has ordered two new 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers from Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. ("Hyundai") in South Korea.

Injured Woman Rescued on Lake Washington

Coast Guard, Seattle Police Department, Seattle Fire Department, King County Sheriff’s Office and Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife personnel rescued

Jonathan Appointed LOC Group's London MD

In line with LOC’s continual global growth and strengthening of the senior management team,  Britain has been appointed as Managing Director of the London operation.

Marine Propulsion

Thordon Bearings Secures AK Ferry Contract

Thordon Bearings has received an order to supply its COMPAC system to two Alaska Ferry newbuilds under construction at the Vigor Industrial shipyard in Ketchikan, Alaska.

Google Maps Goes Coastal with Unmanned Boat

A new high-tech unmanned vessel, launched with the help of Google, will use innovative technologies from the boatbuilding and mapping fields to map shorelines and

MOL Wins Eco Awards in California

Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. earned recognition from the ports of both Los Angeles and Long Beach, California, today, for its efforts to ensure compliance with

Tanker Trends

GasLog Orders Two LNG Carriers

GasLog Ltd. today announced that it has ordered two new 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers from Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd. ("Hyundai") in South Korea.

Ondimar Firms Order Suezmax Quartet at Navantia

Navantia and Maritime Transport Ondimar LDA (shipping company Ibaizabal Group) today ratified the contracts signed in late June and the financial structure for

First LNG Shipment from Donggi Senoro in Indonesia

Indonesia’s $2.8 billion Donggi-Senoro LNG project has shipped its first cargo of the chilled gas on August 2, Mitsubishi Corp, which holds about 45 percent of the project, stated.

Bulk Carrier Trends

Diana Shipping Nets 2Q Loss

Diana Shipping Inc. today reported a net loss of $14.1 million and net loss attributed to common stockholders of $15.5 million for the second quarter of 2015, compared to net loss of $5.

DryShips Reaches Agreement with Ocean Rig

DryShips Inc. (NASDAQ: DRYS), a global provider of marine transportation services for drybulk and petroleum cargoes, and through its subsidiary, Ocean Rig UDW Inc.

Shanghai 6th Best Shipping Center Globally

Shanghai has moved up the rankings of the world’s top shipping centers to sixth place, surpassing Dubai thanks to Free Trade Zone regulations and the Belt and Road Initiative,

Fuels & Lubes

Thordon Bearings Secures AK Ferry Contract

Thordon Bearings has received an order to supply its COMPAC system to two Alaska Ferry newbuilds under construction at the Vigor Industrial shipyard in Ketchikan, Alaska.

West Africa's August Crude Exports to Asia to Slip

West African crude oil exports to Asia were expected to fall to 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, Reuters data and a survey of traders showed.     Slower

ClassNK Releases Guidelines for CNG Carriers

Classification society ClassNK has released its Guidelines for Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) Carriers.   Global economic and population growth is bringing about

Container Ships

Boxships Collide in Port Klang, Malaysia

The container ships MOL Empire and Northern Democrat collided at around 1430 LT Aug 1 in Westport harbor at Port Klang, Malaysia, reportedly while mooring.   Container or containers fell overboard,

Hapag-Lloyd Adds Halmstad to Rotation

As one of the top global carriers Hapag-Lloyd offers a comprehensive service network and will add port of Halmstad, Sweden to the Nordic Short Sea Network. As

China Shipping Orders Eight 13500 TEU Box Ships

China Shipping Container Lines has placed orders for eight 13,500 twenty-foot-equivalent container ships at Shanghai Jiangnan Changxing Shipbuilding, continuing

Marine Power

Google Maps Goes Coastal with Unmanned Boat

A new high-tech unmanned vessel, launched with the help of Google, will use innovative technologies from the boatbuilding and mapping fields to map shorelines and

CSG8 Holds Change of Command Ceremony

Rear Adm. Robert  Burke turned over command of Submarine Group EIGHT (CSG8) to Rear Adm. Daryl Caudle, during a change of command ceremony at Naval Support Activity Naples, July 29, 2015.

Four Rescued from Boat Fire in California

U.S. Coast Guard and firefighter crews helped rescue four people from a boat fire Tuesday afternoon in Alameda, Calif.   Coast Guard Sector San Francisco Command

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Offshore Oil Pipelines Pod Propulsion Salvage Ship Electronics Ship Simulators Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2702 sec (4 req/sec)