Ship Fuel of Choice to Remain Heavy Oil in 2030: New Analysis

MarineLink.com
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Ship propulsion: Image courtesy of LR/UCL

A new study by Lloyds Register and University College, London, discusses the prospects of marine fuels in 'Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030', giving insights into future fuel demand for the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker sectors (which represent about 70% of the global shipping industry's fuel demands). A brief overview follows:

Fuel oil remains the main fuel for deep sea shipping; LNG develops a deep sea bunker market share of 11%; low sulphur heavy fuel oil and hydrogen emerge as alternatives in certain scenarios.

Three scenarios are identified in the study as follows:

1.Status Quo
The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.

2. Global Commons
A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow.

3. Competing Nations
States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth.

Marine Fuel Mix by 2030

So what does the marine fuel mix look like for containers, bulk carriers and tankers by 2030? In two words: decreasingly conventional. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) will still be very much around in 2030, but in different proportions for each scenario: 47% in Status Quo, to a higher 66% in Competing Nations and a 58% share in Global Commons, the most optimistic of scenarios for society. A high share of HFO, of course, means a high uptake of emissions abatement technology when global emissions regulations enter into force.

The declining share of HFO will be offset by low sulphur alternatives (MDO/MGO or LSHFO) and by LNG, and this will happen differently for each ship type and scenario. LNG will reach a maximum 11% share by 2030 in Status Quo. Interestingly, there is also the entry of Hydrogen as an emerging shipping fuel in the 2030 Global Commons scenario which favours the uptake of low carbon technologies stimulated by a significant carbon price.

"I think that the report underlines that any transition from a dependency on HFO will be an evolutionary process," comments Project Leader, Dimitris Argyros LRs Lead Environmental Consultant. "LNG is forecast to grow from a very low base to a significant market share by 2030 - even if there is no major retro-fit revolution most of the LNG take-up will be in new buildings. But it is important to note that an 11% share in 2030 is the equivalent in volume of about 20% of the bunker market today."

"What we can say is that the uptake of engine and alternative propulsion technology and the emergence of non-fossil fuels can only be driven by a society's ability to create a world with lower GHG emissions the technology is not the barrier. Key will be policy and markets. Shipping can control its own destiny to some extent but shipowners can only focus on compliance and profitability. If society wants lower GHG emissions and cleaner fuel, change in shipping has to be driven by practical regulation and market forces so that cleaner, more efficient ships, are more profitable than less efficient ships with higher GHG emissions."

To download a .PDF copy of the report: www.lr.org/gmft2030
Hard copies can be ordered from the LR Webstore at: www.webstore.lr.org

 

 

 

Maritime Today


The Maritime Industry's original and most viewed E-News Service

Maritime Reporter July 2016 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

Swiber Applies for Judicial Management Instead of Liquidation

Singapore oilfield services company Swiber Holdings Ltd said on Friday it has applied to place itself under judicial management instead of liquidation.   Swiber

Cenac Marine to Christen New Vessel, Donate Barge

A ceremony will be held July 29 at Cenac Marine Services headquarters in, Houma, La. To commemorate the christening of its newest vessel, M/V Quincey Cenac, as

Concordia Maritime Posts Q2 Profit

Facing a “gradually deteriorating market,” Sweden based tanker shipping company Concordia Maritime said it was able to post a profit in Q2 2016 based on high vessel

Marine Propulsion

Horizon Delivers Towboat Marty Cullinan for FMT

In June 2016 Horizon Shipbuilding, Inc. of Bayou La Batre, Ala. delivered the M/V Marty Cullinan, a 120’ towboat with a retractable pilot house, to its home port of New Orleans, La.

Insights: Kunkel Weighs in on Propulsion Technology

LNG? Methanol as fuel? Hybrid systems? Tier 4? Reducing noise? Cutting emissions without crushing fuel economy? Marine News readers have questions and Bob Kunkel has answers.

A Sea Change in Waterjet Technology

Longtime waterjet propulsion equipment provider NAMJet introduces key advancements for the workboat sector. Back in 2011, when boat builder Birdon went looking

Tanker Trends

First US LNG Shipment Goes to China

The first liquefied natural gas vessel from the lower 48 U.S. states is on its way to China, according to a Reuters interactive map on Friday, the latest sign that

Libyan Oil Exports to Resume from Closed Ports

Libyan oil exports from closed ports should resume in no more than one to two weeks after a deal was signed between the government and an armed brigade controlling the terminals,

Asia Tankers-VLCC Rates Falter on Oil, Tanker Supplies

MidEast, West Africa rates hit 11-month low. Freight rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs), which hit an 11-month low this week, could slide further next

Bulk Carrier Trends

Picking Up Panamaxes Like Pokemon

Alibra Shipping Research Weekly Market Report takes a look on current market scene of bulk carriers.   For a little while now, the story has been “Now’s a great time to buy bulk carriers,

Safe Bulkers Reports Q2 Loss, Expands Fleet

The Athens, Greece-based Safe Bulkers Inc. (SB) has reported a loss of $9 million in its second quarter.  It had a loss of 15 cents per share.   Net revenue for Q2 of 2016 decreased by 18% to $26.

Asia Dry Bulk-Capesize Steady as Owners Spurn Low Rates

Owners anchoring ships rather than fix at low rates. W. Australia-China capesize rates hit over two-month low. Freight rates for large capesize dry cargo ships

Container Ships

DP World takes over Rodney Container Terminal, Canada

DP World has signed a long-term lease agreement for the expansion and operation of the multi-purpose Rodney Container Terminal at Saint John, New Brunswick, Canada.

Boxship Capacity Crosses 20 million TEU Mark

This week, containership fleet capacity has passed the 20 million TEU mark, another milestone in the rapid rise to prominence of the sector, according to Clarksons Research.

Asia-N.Europe Box Rates Jump 58 pct

Freight rates for shipping containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe jumped 58 percent to $1,125 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ending Friday, a

Marine Power

Horizon Delivers Towboat Marty Cullinan for FMT

In June 2016 Horizon Shipbuilding, Inc. of Bayou La Batre, Ala. delivered the M/V Marty Cullinan, a 120’ towboat with a retractable pilot house, to its home port of New Orleans, La.

Insights: Kunkel Weighs in on Propulsion Technology

LNG? Methanol as fuel? Hybrid systems? Tier 4? Reducing noise? Cutting emissions without crushing fuel economy? Marine News readers have questions and Bob Kunkel has answers.

A Sea Change in Waterjet Technology

Longtime waterjet propulsion equipment provider NAMJet introduces key advancements for the workboat sector. Back in 2011, when boat builder Birdon went looking

Consulting

Crew Kidnapping Rising in Gulf of Guinea - Dryad

In contrast to the substantial numbers of reported incidents across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean in recent years, maritime crime now appears to have stabilised

Friend of the Sea Turns to BMT for Reefer Vessels Certification

BMT Surveys (BMT), a subsidiary of BMT Group, the international maritime design, engineering and risk management consultancy, has been engaged by Friend of the

BMT to Lead Repower for Historic USCG Eagle

BMT Designers & Planners, a subsidiary of BMT Group, an international maritime design, engineering and risk management consultancy, is leading the effort to repower the historic U.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Naval Architecture Navigation Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Salvage Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1217 sec (8 req/sec)