Ship Fuel of Choice to Remain Heavy Oil in 2030: New Analysis

MarineLink.com
Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Ship propulsion: Image courtesy of LR/UCL

A new study by Lloyds Register and University College, London, discusses the prospects of marine fuels in 'Global Marine Fuel Trends 2030', giving insights into future fuel demand for the containership, bulk carrier/general cargo and tanker sectors (which represent about 70% of the global shipping industry's fuel demands). A brief overview follows:

Fuel oil remains the main fuel for deep sea shipping; LNG develops a deep sea bunker market share of 11%; low sulphur heavy fuel oil and hydrogen emerge as alternatives in certain scenarios.

Three scenarios are identified in the study as follows:

1.Status Quo
The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.

2. Global Commons
A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow.

3. Competing Nations
States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth.

Marine Fuel Mix by 2030

So what does the marine fuel mix look like for containers, bulk carriers and tankers by 2030? In two words: decreasingly conventional. Heavy fuel oil (HFO) will still be very much around in 2030, but in different proportions for each scenario: 47% in Status Quo, to a higher 66% in Competing Nations and a 58% share in Global Commons, the most optimistic of scenarios for society. A high share of HFO, of course, means a high uptake of emissions abatement technology when global emissions regulations enter into force.

The declining share of HFO will be offset by low sulphur alternatives (MDO/MGO or LSHFO) and by LNG, and this will happen differently for each ship type and scenario. LNG will reach a maximum 11% share by 2030 in Status Quo. Interestingly, there is also the entry of Hydrogen as an emerging shipping fuel in the 2030 Global Commons scenario which favours the uptake of low carbon technologies stimulated by a significant carbon price.

"I think that the report underlines that any transition from a dependency on HFO will be an evolutionary process," comments Project Leader, Dimitris Argyros LRs Lead Environmental Consultant. "LNG is forecast to grow from a very low base to a significant market share by 2030 - even if there is no major retro-fit revolution most of the LNG take-up will be in new buildings. But it is important to note that an 11% share in 2030 is the equivalent in volume of about 20% of the bunker market today."

"What we can say is that the uptake of engine and alternative propulsion technology and the emergence of non-fossil fuels can only be driven by a society's ability to create a world with lower GHG emissions the technology is not the barrier. Key will be policy and markets. Shipping can control its own destiny to some extent but shipowners can only focus on compliance and profitability. If society wants lower GHG emissions and cleaner fuel, change in shipping has to be driven by practical regulation and market forces so that cleaner, more efficient ships, are more profitable than less efficient ships with higher GHG emissions."

To download a .PDF copy of the report: www.lr.org/gmft2030
Hard copies can be ordered from the LR Webstore at: www.webstore.lr.org

 

 

 

Maritime Reporter August 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

CAGTC Members Win Big in TIGER VI

The U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) announced Friday that 72 projects will receive a total of $600 million from the sixth round of the Transportation

Ingalls Delivers NSC Hamilton to USCG

Huntington Ingalls Industries' (HII) Ingalls Shipbuilding division delivered the National Security Cutter Hamilton (WMSL 753) to the U.S. Coast Guard today. The

Commissioner Doyle Addresses NCBFAA

Federal Maritime Commissioner William P. Doyle spoke today at the National Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association of America (NCBFAA) Government Affairs Conference in Washington, DC.

Marine Propulsion

MN 100: Twin Disc, Inc.

1328 Racine Street Racine, WI 53403 Telephone: 262 638 4000 Web: www.twindisc.com President and CEO: John H. Batten Number of employees: 990 The Company: Twin Disc designs,

China Orders More MAN Dual-Fuel Units

51/60DF engines to power LNGCs MAN Diesel & Turbo has announced a further order for its MAN 51/60DF engine. After a longer period of evaluation, an international consortium,

TORM Contracts Albwardy for Diving Services

Danish product tanker carrier TORM A/S and UAE-based Albwardy Marine Engineering (AME), an Albwardy-Damen JV, have signed a Service Level Agreement for diving services in the UAE region.

Tanker Trends

Mideast Crude Tanker Rates Near 3-month Low

Crude oil tanker earnings on the major Middle East route fell to their lowest in nearly three months as a slowdown in business in recent days battered rate sentiment.

China Orders More MAN Dual-Fuel Units

51/60DF engines to power LNGCs MAN Diesel & Turbo has announced a further order for its MAN 51/60DF engine. After a longer period of evaluation, an international consortium,

TORM Contracts Albwardy for Diving Services

Danish product tanker carrier TORM A/S and UAE-based Albwardy Marine Engineering (AME), an Albwardy-Damen JV, have signed a Service Level Agreement for diving services in the UAE region.

Bulk Carrier Trends

Scorpio Bulkers Upsizes Public Offering

Scorpio Bulkers Inc. announced today that it has further upsized and priced its previously announced offering of senior unsecured notes due 2019 in a registered public offering.

Sharp Slowdown in China Industrial Activity

The slowdown in Chinese industrial production growth ads to the existing concerns that China is going through challenging times, as Beijing aims for a soft landing and a transition of the economy,

Port Manatee Begins Scrap Metal Vessel Calls

With the September call of the bulk carrier Sen Treasure, Port Manatee Scrap Metal Inc. is embarking upon exportation of scrap metal to Mexico from Port Manatee.

Fuels & Lubes

MN 100: Total Lubmarine

Le Diamant B – 16, rue de la République 92922 Paris-La-Défense Cedex, France E-mail: rm.total-lubmarine@total.com Web: www.lubmarine.com The Company: Total

Brent Oil Hits 26-month Low Under US$97

Brent crude oil on Monday slumped to its lowest in over two years, below $97 per barrel as lacklustre economic data from China, the world's top energy consumer,

DW Release World Drilling & Production Forecast Update

The new quarterly issue (Q3) of Douglas-Westwood’s (DW) World Drilling and Production Forecast (DWD&P) has been released. Major changes have been seen in the forecasts for Iraq, Libya and Uzbekistan.

Container Ships

T&T Salvage Refloats Containership

Damn the Torpedoes: T&T Salvage completes another successful OPA 90 response T&T Salvage and their strategic response partner, Cabras Marine, successfully refloated a 17,

First LNG Containership Receives ME-GI Engine

Late last month, NASSCO engineers placed the world’s first dual-fuel slow speed engine into the World’s First Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) powered containership.

Port of LA Container Volumes Strongest Since 2010

The Port of Los Angeles has released its August 2014 containerized cargo volumes. In August 2014, overall volumes increased 6.7 percent compared to August 2013.

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Security Maritime Standards Navigation Offshore Oil Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Electronics Ship Simulators Sonar
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.1785 sec (6 req/sec)