Global Marine Trends 2030

Marinelink.com
Monday, April 08, 2013

Three scenarios shaping the future of the world’s maritime industries.


Report issued  at events in Singapore and London indicates strong growth for the maritime sector in the years up to 2030 and an even bigger role for China in the maritime world, as seaborne trade increases from 9 billion tonnes annually to between 19-24 billion tonnes.


Lloyd’s Register, Qinetiq and Strathclyde University has released Global Marine Trends 2030, a report based on two years of research into the future of the maritime industries.


The report indicates that 2030 could usher in a world where China would own a quarter of the merchant fleet. Almost half of offshore oil is taken from the deepest waters and there are 100 times as many offshore wind platforms. The tanker fleet grows the slowest of all the major ship-types and the number of containerships with a capacity that exceed 7,600 teu grows three times faster than those below that threshold.


These are just some highlights in a vast report with insight into all key areas related to maritime.


The GMT 2030 team used three scenarios to model the future. These scenarios, using three key drivers – population growth, economic development and demand for resources – describe what maritime trade, sea power and the offshore energy sectors could look like in 2030.


The three scenarios are:


Status Quo – The world will continue its current growth momentum with some booms and busts over the next twenty years.


Global Commons – A shift to concern over resource limitation and environmental degradation will see a desire for a more sustainable world being developed and fairness in wealth distribution. Governments will find common ground and accelerated economic growth, within a framework of sustainable development, which will follow.


Competing Nations – States act in their own national interest. There will be little effort to forge agreement amongst governments for sustainable development and international norms. This is a self-interest and zero-sum world with a likely rise in protectionism and slower economic growth. 


Richard Sadler, Lloyd’s Register’s CEO, said: “What is striking is that even in the most negative of the scenarios envisaged, maritime growth is strong.” “For anyone looking for a future in an important sector, they have to consider maritime: whether for employment, investment or an understanding that without seaborne trade, offshore energy and naval power, the geopolitics of tomorrow will be highly fragile and quality of life precarious. The sea and its industries are vital for our global future.”


The report team also included disruptive factors that could radically alter the likelihood of the scenario results. But, barring cataclysmic change, the China factor will still be the big story in 2030. China, consuming three times-as-much oil as it does today and 60% of the world’s coal, will be the marketplace for maritime trade. The United States will, however, be the biggest consumer of natural gas and the report indicates, in a substantial section on naval power, that American military power on the oceans will remain pre-eminent.


To read the report go to www.lr.org/gmt2030.


 

Maritime Reporter October 2014 Digital Edition
FREE Maritime Reporter Subscription
Latest Maritime News    rss feeds

People & Company News

Australian Defence Minister Says Would Not Trust Submarine Firm to Build Canoe

Australia's defence minister has said he would not trust state-owned Australian Submarine Corp (ASC) "to build a canoe", fuelling expectations that most work in

Matson Raises Guam, Micronesia Rates

Matson, Inc., a U.S. carrier in the Pacific, announced today that Matson Navigation Company, Inc. will raise its rates for the company's Guam/Commonwealth of the

Norwegian Buys Ship from Princess Cruises

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. announces fleet expansion for Oceania Cruises in 2016; Sirena to join sister ships Insignia, Regatta and Nautica   Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

Finance

Matson Raises Guam, Micronesia Rates

Matson, Inc., a U.S. carrier in the Pacific, announced today that Matson Navigation Company, Inc. will raise its rates for the company's Guam/Commonwealth of the

Shipbuilding Regulations: Cents and Sensibility

Addressing the Jones Act is just one aspect of an increasingly complicated boatbuilding environment. Stovepiped, poorly conceived regulations is another. The sting of the recession is fading,

Ship Broker Clarkson Looks to Acquire Platou

Top ship broker Clarkson is seeking to acquire Norwegian brokerage and investment bank RS Platou for 281.2 million pounds ($441 million) in a deal that would create

News

Bollinger Delivers 11th FRC to the US Coast Guard

Bollinger Shipyards, Inc. has delivered the William Trump, the 11th Fast Response Cutter (FRC) to the United States Coast Guard.   The announcement was made by Bollinger Chief Operating Officer,

Australian Defence Minister Says Would Not Trust Submarine Firm to Build Canoe

Australia's defence minister has said he would not trust state-owned Australian Submarine Corp (ASC) "to build a canoe", fuelling expectations that most work in

Newport News Lays Keel for Virginia-Class Sub

Newport News Shipbuilding, a division of Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), hosted a keel-laying ceremony Saturday for the future USS Washington (SSN 787), a

Classification Societies

DNV GL Examines Container and Bulk Shipping Trends

DNV GL’s latest Container Ship Forum and Bulk Carrier Forum looked at a broad spectrum of topics including environmental regulations, trends in ship design as well as the new DNV GL rule set.

Preparing for Low Sulphur Operation

Stricter limitations on sulphur emissions (SOx) will pose many challenges to ships operating in Emission Control Areas (ECAs). If not handled with care, switching

Song Thu Lays Keel for New Dredger

The construction of a new vessel of dredging fleet, project TSHD 2000, has been launched to the RS class in Da Nang, Vietnam. The keel laying ceremony was held

Logistics

Matson Raises Guam, Micronesia Rates

Matson, Inc., a U.S. carrier in the Pacific, announced today that Matson Navigation Company, Inc. will raise its rates for the company's Guam/Commonwealth of the

Vacant Pier to Help Ease Long Beach Congestion

Pier S temporary depot to relocate empty containers for next five months    The Port of Long Beach expects a “Temporary Empty Container Depot” planned for a vacant

Russian Liftings for Western Options at 12-Year Low

By Gleb Gorodyankin MOSCOW, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Exports of Russian crude oil to Western markets are set to fall by almost a third in December and reach a 12-year

Consulting

Kemp Succeeds Semple at Wood Group

Wood Group announced following changes to its senior management team. Alan Semple, chief financial officer (CFO) has advised the board that he intends to

EMGS to Map Brazil's Gas Hydrates

Electromagnetic Geoservices ASA (EMGS) has received a contract worth USD 1.5 million for a research project in Brazil. The project will use 3D EM data to map

Fulcrum Buys BMT Snyek Technologies

BMT Group announced the sale of BMT Syntek Technologies Inc to Fulcrum Corporation. Fulcrum Corporation, based in Arlington, VA., providies customized services

 
 
Maritime Careers / Shipboard Positions Maritime Contracts Maritime Standards Navigation Offshore Oil Pipelines Pod Propulsion Port Authority Ship Electronics Shipbuilding / Vessel Construction
rss | archive | history | articles | privacy | terms and conditions | contributors | top maritime news | about us | copyright | maritime magazines
maritime security news | shipbuilding news | maritime industry | shipping news | maritime reporting | workboats news | ship design | maritime business

Time taken: 0.2037 sec (5 req/sec)