Marilyn Hubalde remembers hearing the roar of helicopters as they swooped over the Philippines' northernmost outpost, located less than 90 miles away from Taiwan. In April 2023, Filipino and American troops converged on a cluster of 10 emerald-green islands in Batanes Province for amphibious war drills.

Hubalde, 65, recalled that "we were terrified". We thought China would attack us when they heard there were military drills in Batanes. Hubalde's assistant, who was working in the field when the troops arrived in Batanes, became terrified and ran into the woods. Hubalde owns a store in Basco, the provincial capital. "She believed the war had already begun," Hubalde said.

Batanes, with its 20,000 residents, has become used to the high-speed war games that are played on these islands. These islands consist of densely packed villages and towns wedged between steep slopes and stony shores. From April to June of this year, U.S. troops twice dropped anti-ship missiles here during a series joint exercises.

Locals claim that this province, the Philippines' smallest and least populated, was peaceful until recently. Geographically, it's now at the forefront of the competition between China and the United States for dominance over the Asia-Pacific. The islands are located on the southern edge the Bashi Channel. This is a major shipping route between Taiwan and the Philippines that connects South China Sea to the Western Pacific.

Reporting shows that this year's exercises showed how the U.S., along with its Philippine ally, intends to use anti-ship missiles on the ground to prevent the Chinese navy from accessing the Western Pacific in the event of a conflict by blocking the waterway. These missiles can also be used against a Chinese fleet that is attempting to invade Taiwan, or to mount a blockade on the democratically-governed island.

If the Chinese navy wants to stop U.S. or Japanese intervention in the Taiwan crisis, it will need to be able to conduct operations far into the Pacific. Chinese air and naval forces will also have to operate in Western Pacific to counter any countermeasures taken by the U.S. or its allies, if Beijing were to impose a blockade against Taiwan.

In an interview, retired Rear Admiral Rommel ong, former vice-commander in the Philippine Navy said, "We should be able to deny Chinese control of Bashi Channel." In a conflict scenario that will determine the winner or loser.

Retired General Emmanuel Bautista - a former chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines - said it even plainer: "The invasion of Taiwan will be almost impossible if the northern Philippines are not under control."

China considers Taiwan to be its territory. President Xi Jinping said Beijing will not renounce to the use of force to take control of the island. Taiwan's government has rejected China's claims of sovereignty, saying that only the people of Taiwan can decide its future.

The Foreign Ministry in Beijing responded to questions by saying that the Taiwan issue was a Chinese internal matter. "China's internal affairs are China's sole business, and it does not warrant any interference from other countries."

The Pentagon has not responded to any questions. Taiwan's Defense Ministry declined to comment on this story.

Use the 'First Island Chain'

According to former and current senior U.S. military and defense officials, the American deployment to Batanes is part of a larger Pentagon strategy that aims to use the Philippine archipelago's position to deter or defeat any Chinese attacks on Taiwan or other disputed territory in the South China Sea. This nation, which has more than 7,600 interspersed islands and key maritime chokepoints, is an important link in what's known as the First Island Chain. The chain of territories controlled by America's regional ally extends from the Japanese Islands in the north to Taiwan and the Philippines in the south and then on to Borneo. This chain is a natural barrier which encloses China’s coast seas and contains its rapidly expanding Navy.

The spokesperson for the Philippine Navy, Rear Admiral Roy Trinidad said, "We were put here by divine design. The archipelago was put here." Washington is determined to assist Manila in keeping the tollgate closed. Several U.S. Asian allies, as reported in August 2017, have doubts about the commitment of President Donald Trump to American security guarantees that date back decades. Washington continues to work on a project that was started by President Joe Biden, which aims to strengthen defenses along the Manila stretch of the chain.

Reporting shows that the current U.S. military engagement in the Philippines has taken a dramatic turn. The joint exercises conducted in Batanes were part of a series of rotations and deployments that have intensified, resulting in a permanent American presence in the Philippines. U.S. forces are involved in almost continuous training and drills in different parts of the archipelago, more than 30 years after Manila ordered that the U.S. leave its sprawling Naval Base at Subic Bay, ending nearly a century-long American military presence in the Philippines.

According to an official U.S. statement, when the chief of staff for the Philippine Armed Forces met with the head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Samuel Paparo in Hawaii in august, both sides agreed on more than 500 engagements in 2026. These ranged from large-scale exercise to expert exchanges on smaller topics. U.S. Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a June congressional hearing that modernizing capabilities to "deny Chinese aggressiveness in the First Island Chain" was a top priority for the Trump Administration. He also confirmed that both the duration and scale of the joint training are increasing. He said that the United States maintains a strong rotational force in the Philippines and has extended the timelines for exercises with the Philippines. Washington considers the cooperation of the Ferdinand Marcos Jr. administration crucial to contain Chinese forces within the island chain during a conflict. Marcos' predecessor Rodrigo Duterte was an openly hostile U.S. opponent who tried to move his country towards China during his six year term. Marcos claims that if China and America fight over Taiwan, his country will be inevitably drawn into the conflict because of its proximity to Taiwan. At a press event in August, Marcos said: "We don't want to go war." "But I believe if there's a war in Taiwan, we'll be dragged and drawn into this mess, kicking and screaming."

The Philippine Defense Ministry said that it has "no reason" to doubt the commitments of the highest officials in the Trump administration.

Recent Chinese maneuvers demonstrate how crucial the Bashi Channel access is to Beijing's Pacific plans. According to Japanese tracking data, in June, a powerful Chinese aircraft carrier battlegroup used this passage to enter Western Pacific, before launching a series of extended exercises south of Japan. According to former military and government leaders in the Philippines, the strategic location of the Philippines is the reason why China intensified their so-called gray-zone warfare in order to intimidate the Marcos regime and undermine its ties with Washington. The harassment of Philippine military patrols, fishing boats and law enforcement vessels is almost constant. It falls short of an open conflict. This mainly takes place within Manila's Exclusive Economic Zone of the South China Sea. There are indications that this tactic may now be used in the north, around Batanes. In a statement, the Philippine Navy stated that "multiple" Chinese coastguard and naval ships had been detected infiltrating into the Philippines' Economic Zone near these islands in early August.

When asked about Beijing's gray zone tactics, the Philippine Defense Ministry said that the actions were rooted in China's own ambition to change global rules-based orders and position itself as a new global power. The Philippine military described them as "acts intimidation" which "violate international laws."

China's Foreign Ministry did not respond to any specific questions regarding gray-zone war.

WAR JITTERS in BATANES

The preparations for war have made communities feel vulnerable, especially those who live near key passages in the archipelago. Hubalde, a Batanes resident, said that she bought sacks and sacks more of rice as soon as the exercises for 2023 began. She said that others stocked up on milk, sugar, and oil. She said that the islands are almost completely dependent on mainland shipments for food, fuel and medicine.

Ronald "Jun" Aguto Jr. said that the community had become used to the military presence following earlier panic and alarm. He said, "So, we needed to educate and inform them that this was just a military drill."

Aguto, however, is preparing to go to war. His top priority is updating the provincial contingency plans, which will anticipate a massive influx of OFWs (Overseas Filipino Workers) from Taiwan in case of conflict. About 200,000 Filipinos live in Taiwan.

In late June, shortly before assuming office, he told an interviewer at his home near the main island of Batan that a scenario in their contingency plan was to use Batanes to launch OFWs back to Taiwan. "But our islands were designed to hold 20,000 people." We must bring them to the mainland, where they will be more sustainable.

In an interview conducted before his retirement, Edward Ike De Sagon (Commodore of the Philippine Navy for Northern Luzon) said that the military was already working on a plan to rescue people. De Sagon, who is a Batanes native, said that the military and other government agencies were preparing for multiple scenarios. This included managing an influx in Filipino workers, as well as "possibly refugees" from Taiwan or other nationalities.

The Philippine military stated that "due its geographical location", Batanes could "serve as an logistical and staging center" for troops who "assist in evacuation, aid transport, and humanitarian response."

The islands are also at risk of being caught in a war if Beijing decides to attack Taiwan. According to some exercises conducted earlier this year, military planners from Manila and Washington anticipated that China would try to seize or attack Batanes in the event of a war over Taiwan. According to a U.S. official military report, along with the anti-ship drills, American troops and Philippine soldiers were deployed on the islands in order to seize important terrain and infrastructure.

This would not be the very first time that war has come to Batanes. After Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, Japanese troops from Taiwan landed at the main island of Batan to begin the successful battle against American forces. As now, the islands were a prized strategic asset.

Florencio Aba, a retired politician and one of Batanes' most prominent families, said he was concerned that history would repeat itself. He called on the authorities in Manila, to reassure the locals about the plans they have in place for dealing with the aftermath of armed conflict. Abad, a former budget secretary under the administration of late President Benigno Aquino who is a member of a prominent Batanes family, said: "I was worried that history would repeat itself."

The 71-year old said, "I don't even think about livelihood" in an interview conducted at his hilltop house with panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean. "I am just concerned about how to survive a war so close by. We may need to take some precautions even if we don't get involved directly. What if you can't travel by land or sea? "How do we feed ourselves?"

He said that the Marcos government had not yet explained its plans to evacuate Filipino workers from Taiwan, or a projected influx of Taiwanese refugee boats and ships fleeing war.

The Philippine Defense Ministry said that they were working on comprehensive contingency plans and repatriation strategies, but did not elaborate.

MISSILES ARE 'DESIGNED FOR A STRAIT TO CLOSE' As locals fret about conflict, rehearsals to block the Bashi Channel are continuing. As part of the U.S.-Philippines annual Balikatan, or "shoulder-to-shoulder" drills, the American military in April airlifted in a contingent of U.S. Marines. The US military brought a compact NMESIS anti-ship missile launcher to Batan’s airport. It slopes downhill towards Mount Iraya, a volcanic mountain. The NMESIS launches a stealthy Naval Strike Missile with a range exceeding 300 kilometers.

These missiles would be in range if hostile warships were to attempt to transit the Bashi Channel, or operate in the waters to the east or the west of Taiwan. In a press release, the U.S. army said that these missiles had "sea-denial capability". Trinidad, a spokesperson for the Philippine Navy, said that the missile was "designed to close a channel."

According to a U.S. official military statement, the NMESIS was airlifted again to Batanes in late May and placed into a hidden position to simulate strikes against targets on ships. U.S. Marines and Philippine marines patrolled the islands to practice the capture and defense of airports, ports, and key terrain.

According to Japanese tracking data, just days after U.S. marines deployed NMESIS the Chinese aircraft carrier Shandong entered the Western Pacific via the Bashi Channel with its battle group. Tracking data revealed that the Chinese carrier conducted intensive training south of Japan, before returning to the South China Sea late in the month with its accompanying warships through the Bashi Channel.

Around the same time, China’s other operational carrier Liaoning entered the Western Pacific via the Miyako Strait, northeast of Taiwan, and near Okinawa, Japan, to conduct similar drills with its accompanying warships. According to retired Philippine military officers, in a major conflict Japan's powerful and modern military is likely to prevent the Chinese navy from accessing the Miyako Strait or other waterways to the north. Beijing is therefore more interested in the Bashi Channel, according to retired Philippine military commanders.

In response to questions, Japan's Defense Ministry said that China appears to be trying to enhance its operational capabilities and improve its capability to conduct operations in remote maritime and air areas.

When asked about the activities of two aircraft carriers in the Philippines, the Philippine Military said that they were part of China's ongoing illegal, coercive aggressive and deceptive activities throughout the region.

Last year, in a similar attempt to threaten Chinese warships the U.S. Army deployed one of the newly introduced Typhon launchers armed with powerful anti-ship missiles on the main Philippine island of Luzon just south of Batanes. The Tomahawk has a maximum range of 1,600 km, so it can also reach targets in China.

Beijing has expressed anger at Manila's decision to continue the deployment of these weapons. China warned that this deployment was "very hazardous" and demanded that the Philippines remove launchers.

China's Foreign Ministry responded to a question by saying that "regional stability and peace" were being undermined by "frequent and highly targeted military drills conducted by the United States, the Philippines and other countries in the region along with the deployment of offensive strategic weapons like the Typhon."

In a radio interview, the Philippine military chief Brawner stated that these anti-ship missiles systems were not specifically designed to target China but rather "are here to teach us because we should be prepared to use them once we purchase these capabilities."

When asked about Typhon and NMESIS the Philippine Defense Ministry said that it "could neither confirm nor deny" whether or not these systems are still in the country. It is a question of operational security.

The Philippine military stated that the presence of these missile systems in past exercises "was temporary" and their use was "pure for training and deterrence, and not intended to close any particular maritime passage like the Bashi Channel or directed towards any specific country."

If China doesn't like it, "We're doing it right" Senior Philippine defense officials and ex-officials say that China's anger shows the country views anti-ship missiles to be a serious danger. Ong, a retired rear admiral, said that his personal rule of thumb was that if Beijing's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman talked about it and didn't like it then we were doing it correctly.

The Philippine military also has advanced anti-ship missiles that are launched from the ground. Manila received its first BrahMos anti-ship cruise rockets in April of last year as part of an order worth $375 million from India. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, BrahMos cruise missiles can reach a distance of 500 km with a 300 kilogram warhead. Former U.S. commandants have explained that mobile ground forces could use missiles of this type to attack Chinese warships or land targets, while remaining difficult for the Chinese to detect and counter. Former U.S. commanders say this strategy is intended to avoid concentrating troops at bases in Asia-Pacific that could be vulnerable to China’s massive arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles.

According to senior ex-Philippine military officers, other joint drills between forces from the Philippines and the U.S. as well as Japan, Australia, and Japan suggest that similar plans are being practiced in order to block chokepoints farther south in the Philippines. Senior ex-Philippine officers say that the Mindoro Strait is another key passage in the archipelago, as are the Balabac Strait or the Sibutu Passage. The Marcos government has also given the U.S. four new military bases, three in north Luzon and one just south of Batanes. The United States and other allies are often involved in the next joint exercise that follows the conclusion of one with the Americans. The Philippine military opened its new forward operating base on Batan Island, near the coastal town Mahatao in late August.

The Trump administration also rolls out the red carpet diplomatically. In a phone call on January 22, two days after Trump's inauguration, U.S. State Secretary Marco Rubio assured Manila that America had "ironclad" commitments under its defense treaty. Rubio exempted 336 million dollars for modernizing the Philippines security forces from the freeze on overseas assistance implemented by the government. Marcos was the first leader of Southeast Asia to have met Trump during the second term of the U.S. President.

Aguto, the Batanes governor, said that despite the increased exercises and maneuvers he was confident China wouldn't attack or land on these islands as it would cause a wider conflict. He said that for a community which relies on regular supplies being shipped, it was sensible to be prepared for the worst.

Marilyn Hubalde, the owner of Basco's store, thinks exactly the same way. She is now focusing on how to survive if the war disrupts Batanes regular supplies. She suggests that locals should return to cultivating their own food in the rich volcanic soil of the islands. She said, "We need to get planting." Reporting by Karen Lema & David Lague. Photos by Lisa Marie David. Edgar Su is responsible for photo editing. Vijdan Kawoosa created the graphics. Peter Hirschberg (Edited by)

(source: Reuters)