Argus Media, a commodities data company, said that it expects French soft-wheat exports to the European Union to recover to 8 million metric tonnes in 2025/26. However France will still have its largest stockpile for about 20 years.

France, EU's largest grain producer, just finished harvesting this year. Argus estimates that the crop was 33.4 million tonnes, an increase of 30% over a wet 2024 crop.

In 2024/25, the poor harvest of previous years contributed to the lowest non EU exports in this century at 3.5 millions tons.

Argus reported that despite the anticipated recovery in exports for this season, France will end 2025/26 having its largest stocks of soft grain in two decades, at 4 million tonnes.

The company stated that "amidst a stable demand in Europe and the United States, it is important to export to third countries heavily" because of the increase in French production.

Argus said that to balance the supply, 9.5 million tonnes of exports would be needed outside the EU.

Argus stated that the abundance of global supply, and declining French sales in Algeria and China, are limiting opportunities for export. It described its 8 million ton projection as "ambitious".

The company stated that recent French sales in Egypt and Southeast Asia demonstrated the type of additional demand France will need to eliminate its large surplus.

FranceAgriMer, the farm office, projected in a recent supply and demand forecast that French soft exports would double this season to 7.5 millions tons, while stocks would rise by two-thirds to reach a 21st century high of 3.9million tons.

(source: Reuters)