In recent months, iron ore prices have remained stable despite increasing uncertainty about the future of the steel raw material.

The benchmark Singapore Exchange contract closed at $95.25 per metric ton Monday. This is down from $95.89 the previous day, but higher than the recent low of $93.35 in July.

The difference between the low price of $97.81 per ton and the highest price so far for 2025, $107.81 on February 12, is only $14.

In 2024, the difference between the highs and lows was about $52 per ton. This range increased to $32 by 2023 and to $82 by 2022.

Iron ore prices have not fluctuated much in 2025, despite the uncertainty surrounding the tariff policies of U.S. president Donald Trump and their impact on global trade.

China is the second largest economy in the world and the buyer of 75% of the global seaborne ore volume.

The main residential property sector is still weak, and the export-oriented manufacturing sector faces challenges from tariff barriers. At present, the United States imposes 55% tariffs on Chinese imports.

The economic worries of China have not spared iron ore. According to commodity analysts Kpler, imports will fall in the first half 2025.

Kpler data shows that seaborne imports fell by 4% to 604.8 million tonnes in January-June, compared with 630.1 millions tons during the same period of 2024.

Official data show that the production of crude steel in the first five month of this year was 431.63 millions tons.

Other buyers are also seeing a modest drop in China's imports of iron ore.

Kpler reports that Japan, which is the world's second largest iron ore buyer, imported 43.85 millions tons of the metal in the first six months of 2025. This compares to 45.13 in the same period of last year.

South Korea imported 34.69 millions tons of goods in the first six-month period, down from 36.35. In Europe, arrivals fell to 40.17 from 41.33 in the same period last year.

Globally, seaborne imports fell by 3% or 25,09 million tons in the first six months to 818.01 millions.

SUBSTANCE SUPPLY EASES

Weather-related disruptions are behind the slight drop in supply.

The number two exporter, Brazil, saw a slight rise to 179.15 millions tons from 176.24, while the third-ranked South Africa and fourth-ranked Canada both maintained their shipments.

India's iron ore exports fell as the fifth largest shipper saw a 40% drop, or 9,76 million tons to 14,69 million, in the first half.

India's iron ore exports have been hit by lower prices than in previous years, despite the fact that they tend to be of lower quality.

Overall, the iron ore seaborne market has been stable in recent months due to China's desire for imports.

While much of the commentary is focused on the risks that the Chinese economy faces from the property market weakness and U.S. Tariffs, certain sectors like automobile manufacturing and infrastructure are still strong.

It's likely that Chinese steel producers and traders will restock their inventories if iron ore prices are impacted by a weaker outlook in the second half.

SteelHome monitors China's port inventory. The week ending July 4, the number of tons dropped from 133.6 to 133.4.

If prices moderate, there's room to increase the current level.

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(source: Reuters)