Low Green Power Supply, Cold Boost Spot, Curve

Posted by Michelle Howard November 17, 2014

Low solar and wind power supply expectations on Monday boosted European prompt power prices with demand supported by a gradual turn towards colder weather.

Point Carbon forecasts showed German solar supply on Tuesday likely to come in at 0.9 gigawatt (GW), down from 1.9 GW on Monday. Wind output was seen rising by 2.3 GW between Monday and Tuesday but only to a relatively low 5.3 GW.

German baseload (24 hours) for delivery on Tuesday was 2.6 euros up from the price paid for Monday at 45 euros ($56) a megawatt hour.

The equivalent French contract was up three euros at 48 euros/MWh.

Average daily 24-hour temperatures will fall by 0.3 and 0.5 degrees Celsius respectively in Germany and France in the period between Monday and Tuesday, likely boosting French consumption by nearly 2 GW.

Much of France uses electric heating when it gets cold and therefore demand rises immediately when temperatures drop.

German met office DWD said temperatures in Germany would be a maximum 10 degrees during the day on Tuesday, down two degrees from Monday's top end.

The forward power curve benefited from the spot market's strength and also clocked up gains in sympathy with rising first quarter, 2015 UK gas prices and stable coal, traders said.

Germany's Cal 15 baseload power was 23 cents up from last Friday's session at 34.80 euros, just below last week's seven-week high.

The equivalent French contract, Cal '15 baseload, was 20 cents up from Friday at 42.45 euros/MWh.

December 2014 expiry EU carbon emissions permits were unchanged at 6.62 euros/tonne.

Brent crude fell by more than $1 towards $78 a barrel after Japan, the world's fourth-biggest crude importer, slipped into recession and as Saudi Arabia reiterated the oil price should be left to supply and demand.

Some 12 million German households' power bills will fall by an average 2.4 percent from January as 115 energy companies pass on lower wholesale prices and levies to support green power, internet portal Check24 said.