Worldwide energy consumption will grow by 60% over the next two decades, according to the reference
case projection released today by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its annual
forecast of international energy demand. The "International Energy Outlook 2002" (IEO2002) expects
much of the growth to occur in the developing world, with the regions of developing Asia (including
China, India, and South Korea) and Central and South America leading
the way as their consuming
patterns increasingly resemble those of the industrialized world.
The IEO2002 reference case expects world oil prices to moderate in 2002 and prices to reach $25 per
barrel in 2000 dollars ($42 per barrel in nominal dollars) by 2020, slightly higher than in last
year's "Outlook," reflecting the successes OPEC have had in managing oil production cutbacks to
raise oil prices in 2000.
Worldwide, oil consumption rose by less than 0.1 mbd day in 2001, divided evenly among the
industrialized (mainly Western Europe) and developing (mainly Central and South America) nations.
Demand is expected to begin to recover in 2002 as the world economies recover from the slowdown in
2001, and global oil demand is projected to expand by about 0.6 mbd in 2002. In the IEO2002
reference case projection, world oil consumption increases from 75 mbd in 1999 to 119 mbd in 2020,
an annualized growth rate of 2.2%.
The increases in worldwide oil use projected in the reference case would require an increment of
almost 44 mbd over current production capacity by 2020. OPEC producers are expected to be the major
beneficiaries of increased production requirements, but non-OPEC supply is expected to remain
competitive, with major increments coming from offshore resources, especially in the Caspian Basin,
Latin America, and deepwater West Africa. Deepwater exploration and development initiatives are
generally expected to be sustained worldwide, with the offshore Atlantic Basin emerging as a major
future source of oil production in both Latin America and Africa.
Source: Haight Gardner Holland & Knight, Washington, DC