China Crude Imports Expected to Surge

Posted by Joseph Keefe May 11, 2015

China's appetite for crude oil is expected to pick up later this year as storage comes online and new buyers emerge, even after its inbound shipments surpassed United States imports last month for the first time, traders and analysts say.

China's crude oil imports hit a record 7.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, making it the world's biggest importer for the commodity last month.

And despite slowing economic growth, China's crude purchases are expected to keep climbing in second-half 2015, supporting oil prices that have rebounded about 40 percent since touching six-year lows earlier this year due to a supply glut.

"While most of the focus is on the supply side ... one of the elements that could help the bulls' case later in the year and next year is China," analysts at Energy Aspects said.

Chinese refiners are expected to rebuild crude stocks pulled down by months of high refining rates, and will begin to fill new commercial storage tanks with a total capacity of nearly 40 million barrels that will come online this year.

"I expect to see higher commercial inventory levels," an oil trader with a Chinese state company said on condition of anonymity.

"Everybody is expecting higher oil prices towards the end of the year, so naturally there will be inventory (build)," he said, as refiners buy crude before it gets more expensive.

China is also expected to resume buying for its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). Consultancy SIA Energy expects two new strategic storage facilities - in Jinzhou and Tianjin - with total capacity of about 50 million barrels to be completed in the fourth quarter.

Fresh demand from independent "teapot" refiners, which account for a fifth of China's refining capacity, could also add to imports. The country's biggest private refiner, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group, expects to get approval in the third quarter to start importing about 5 million tonnes a year (100,000 bpd) of crude.

Adding to China's import needs is a potential dip in domestic output this year of about 120,000 bpd, forecast by researchers at Wood Mackenzie as companies cut capital spending.

The bullish outlook for crude imports contrasts with slowing economic growth in China. Domestic oil demand is forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to grow a modest 2.7 percent in 2015, a bit higher from last year but down from double digit growth at the beginning of the decade.

Last year, China's crude imports grew 9.5 percent over 2013, boosted by a late-year surge as it bought cheap oil for strategic storage.