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US Soy Stocks to Rise as Exports Slip

Maritime Activity Reports, Inc.

May 12, 2015

U.S. soybean supplies were expected to balloon 43 percent in the 2015/16 marketing year despite a drop in production due to increased competition on the export market, the U.S. government said on Tuesday.
In its first estimate of the supply situation for the 2015/16 marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department projected U.S. soybean ending stocks at 500 million bushels, up from 350 million bushels in the 2014/15 crop year.
That topped analysts expectations for soybean ending stocks of 443 million in the 2015/16 crop year.
USDA forecast soybean production in 2015/16 at 3.850 billion bushels, down from 3.969 billion in 2014/15 due to average yield dropping to 46.0 bushels per acre from 47.8.
U.S. soybean exports were seen falling to 1.775 billion bushels from 1.800 billion due to increased shipments from major South American producers Brazil and Argentina. Brazil exports were seen rising to 49.75 million tonnes from 45.65 million and Argentina exports were seen rising to 8.50 million tonnes from 8.00 million.
USDA also said in its monthly supply and demand report that domestic corn ending stocks for 2015/16 would be 1.746 billion, down from 1.851 billion in 2014/15. Analysts had been expecting 2015/16 corn ending stocks of 1.752 billion, according to the average of estimates in a Reuters poll.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2015/16 were pegged at a bigger-than-expected 793 million bushels, up from 709 million bushels in 2014/15. USDA said U.S. wheat production would be 2.087 billion bushels, smaller than trade expectations for 2.096 billion.
U.S. winter wheat production was seen at 1.472 billion bushels, up from 1.378 billion a year ago and just 2 million bushels above trade expectations.
World ending stocks of soybeans for 2015/16 were seen at 96.22 million tonnes, up from 85.54 million in 2014/15. World corn ending stocks were seen falling to 191.94 million tonnes from 192.50 million tonnes and world wheat ending stocks were projected to rise to 203.32 million tonnes from 200.97 million tonnes.
(Reporting by Mark Weinraub; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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