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Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Oil Demand News

2020 Low-sulfur Rule to Trigger Huge Disruptions -IEA

© natagolubnycha / Adobe Stock

The shipping industry and oil refineries are not doing enough to prepare for new rules cutting the amount of sulfur that vessels can emit from 2020, according to the head of the International Energy Agency's (IEA) oil industry and market division.The new rules drastically cut the amount of sulfur that the world's ships can emit, from 3.5 percent currently to just 0.5 percent. Ships that install "scrubbers" that remove sulfur as the fuel is burned can continue to use higher sulfur fuels…

Scrubbers 'No Silver Bullet' for Shipping -Wartsila

© Diego Cardini / Adobe Stock

Global shipping fleet must cut sulfur emissions by 2020. Wartsila received record orders for sulfur scrubbers last year. Shipping industry hopes that so-called sulfur scrubbers are a quick-fix solution to compliance with drastic emissions reduction demanded by 2020 are somewhat misguided, one of the world's biggest manufacturers of the equipment told Reuters. The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) cut to the amount of sulfur the world's fleet can emit will have massive implications for shippers, oil refiners and even crude oil producers.

World Oil Demand Growth Highest in 16 Years

In its May Oil Market Report the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for 2004 world oil demand by 0.27 mbd. Altogether oil demand growth in 2004 amounts to 1.9 mbd or a change over 2003 of 2.5% resulting in a total demand of 80.6 mbd. In absolute terms the 2004 demand increase represents the single largest annual gain since 1988. Previous upward revisions to oil demand growth had centred on China but this time increased growth is estimated for North America and Europe. North America will in 2004 have increased oil demand by 1.6%, Europe by 1.5%, China by 13.6%, other Asia by 5.1%, Middle East by 4.9% Africa and Latin America by 1.7%. Oil demand is set to decline by 2% in the Former Soviet Union and by 1.6% in OECD Pacific.

China Oil Demand Growth Slows

China's demand for oil in October 2012 was meaningfully weaker that it was the previous month. The detailed Chinese oil data for October were reported yesterday. Calculated demand adjusted for inventory changes came in at 9.5 million b/d. This was meaningfully weaker than demand in September which was calculated at a record 9.76 million b/d. Chinese oil demand has hovered close to the 9.5 million b/d level since March. If you want to make a bullish twist to that number you would use worlds like “Chinese oil demand continue close to record high levels”, or “Chinese oil demand surpassed 9.5 million b/d for only the 5th time in history”. The reality is however that it is the growth numbers we are mainly interested in when it comes to China.

OPEC Producers Must Invest $60B To Meet Demand

OPEC oil producers will need to invest $60 billion by 2010 in order to meet world oil demand, according to figures released by the group. To maintain its 1995 production level and make its proportionate share of the additional amounts, OPEC needs to invest about $60 billion by the year 2010 and another $250 billion by 2020, officials said. World oil demand, which was about 70 million bpd in 1995, is expected to be over 90 million bpd in 2010 and over 100 million bpd in 2020.

Oil Demand Growth Slowing at 'Remarkable' Pace

World oil demand growth is softening at a remarkable pace as the European and Chinese economies falter, the West's energy watchdog said on Thursday, while supplies grow steadily, particularly from North America. "The recent slowdown in demand growth is nothing short of remarkable," the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report, revising down its oil demand growth projections for both 2014 and 2015. "While festering conflicts in Iraq and Libya show no sign of abating, their effect on global oil market balances and prices remains muted amid weakening oil demand growth and plentiful supply," it added. The IEA said demand growth in the second quarter of 2014 alone eased back to a near two-and-a-half year low.

OPEC Needs To Spend $60B To Meet World Oil Demand

OPEC oil producers will need to invest $60 billion by 2010 to meet world oil demand, the group's president said. "To maintain its 1995 production level and make its proportionate share of the additional amounts, OPEC would need to invest about $60 billion by the year 2010 and another $250 billion by 2020," Abdullah al-Attiyah, also Qatari oil minister, told a conference. "World oil demand, which was about 70 million barrels per day in 1995, is expected to be more than 90 million bpd in 2010 and more than 100 million bpd in 2020," he added. "OPEC will attract substantial investment capital, because, in addition to having the world's largest reserves, they also have some of the lowest production costs in the world," Attiyah said.

Oil Demand Expected To Rise

According to the latest oil market report from IEA, world oil demand is still projected to increase by 1.66 mbd this year, despite a downward revision reflecting economic slowdown. North America is projected to increase consumption by 0.41 mbd, Europe by 0.2 mbd, and Asia by 0.75 mbd. The only marginal decline is expected in the Former Soviet Union. IEA has projected world oil demand to reach 79.3 mbd in 4Q 2001, an all time high. Total non-OPEC supply is projected to increase by 0.93 mbd, and the biggest increases are expected in the FSU (0.39 mbd) and N America (0.41 mbd). A marginal decline is expected in Europe.

IEA: Says Oil Demand Slump Has Bottomed Out

Oil demand in the territories of the former Soviet Union reportedly has bottomed out after a long decline.

Peak Gasoline Demand Looms with Engine Efficiency Gains

Demand for gasoline in the United States, which accounts for a tenth of global oil consumption, is expected to peak next year as engines become more efficient, WoodMackenzie analysts said. Global demand for gasoline, which accounts for more than a quarter of the world's oil consumption, is set to peak as early as 2021 even in the face of relentless growth in the vehicle fleet, according to the Edinburgh-based consultancy. A rise in the number of hybrid and electric cars such as the Nissan Leaf, Toyota Prius and Tesla as well as tighter fuel standards in Europe and the United States will contribute to a historic shift in consumption.

IEA Raises Oil Demand Figures

An upwards revision to world oil demand means the West will need more oil from the OPEC cartel this year and next than previously thought, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. IEA reported that the "call on OPEC oil" would be 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) greater this year than it previously forecast, at 27 million bpd. Next year the call on OPEC oil will be 300,000 bpd more than earlier estimates, although the absolute level is expected to sink to 26.8 million bpd in 2002 because of more production expected outside the cartel. The big revision paints a more bullish picture for global oil markets, particularly after OPEC's recent decision to slash output by one million barrels per day from September 1.

Global Oil Demand to Grow into 2040s

Global oil demand will keep growing into the 2040s due to higher consumption of plastic goods even as the electric vehicle fleet expands rapidly and technology revolutionises transport, BP said in its annual Energy Outlook on Wednesday. The forecast of sustained demand growth for the fossil fuel comes as other oil companies such as Royal Dutch Shell brace for demand to plateau by the early 2030s while countries gradually shift to less-polluting energy. In its industry benchmark report, BP forecasts a significant slowing of carbon emissions, which remain well in excess of goals set by governments to fight global warming. The British oil and gas company also said current recoverable global oil supplies of around 2.6 trillion barrels are sufficient to meet demand out to 2050 twice over.

IEA: Oil Demand to Grow 2.2% in 2005

The International Energy Agency’s most recent monthly report estimates for 2005 that global demand will grow by 1.8 mb/d, or 2.2%. for 2004. The 2005 demand estimate assumes: normal weather, a moderate slowdown in global GDP growth, an easing of crude oil and product prices and a modest reduction in Chinese oil consumption growth. Even so, Chinese oil demand is expected to grow by 510 kb/d, or 8.1% in 2005. The Middle East is also expected to contribute strong consumption growth in 2005 of 260 kb/d or 4.7%. These high growth rates contrast with substantially lower oil demand growth in the OECD of slightly less than 1% in 2005, holding flat in OECD Asia but rebounding slightly in OECD Eastern Europe.

China Oil Demand Expected To Rise

Chinese crude oil demand is expected to average 5.03 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2001, or five percent higher than in 2000, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said. The IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report that demand was likely to rise by 240,000 bpd over last year's average of 4.79 million bpd but warned that the Chinese economy remained a major concern. November crude imports were 187,000 bpd higher than October, essentially all Omani oil. The report said Chinese refiners had cut back on imports of Angolan, Nigerian and North Sea oil and boosted imports of heavier Iranian, Kuwaiti and Saudi crude. - (Reuters)

China Imports More Oil Than U.S. for First Time Ever

China reached this milestone in December 2012, as its net petroleum imports surpassed those of the U.S. In a recent press release NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that weak reported oil demand in the U.S. reduced the commercial stock draw. In Japan, crude runs began to ease, which built crude stocks. Every year for at least the last two decades, Chinese oil demand has increased in both absolute and relative terms, that is, as a percent of world total demand. Since the price spike of 2008 and the following recession, U.S. oil demand has been declining in both absolute and relative terms, for all years except 2010. This, coupled with growing U.S. oil production, has led to a downward trend in U.S. net oil imports, while Chinese net oil imports continue to grow inexorably.

OPEC: Crude Demand will Grow in 2016

OPEC on Monday predicted higher demand for its crude oil next year, sticking to its view that a strategy of letting prices fall will tame the U.S. shale boom and cut a global surplus. The monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also said a weaker outlook for China would contribute to slower global oil demand growth next year. "U.S. oil production has shown signs of slowing," OPEC said in the report. OPEC said it expected demand for its crude next year to average 30.31 million barrels per day (bpd), up 190,000 bpd from last month, despite the slower demand growth overall due to a weaker outlook for Latin America and China. Oil is trading below $50 a barrel, less than half its level of June 2014.

Unchanged Estimate of 2001 Oil Demand Growth - IEA

The IEA in their Oil Market Report for December 2001 did not alter their previous estimate of only a marginal increase in oil demand in 2001 over 2000, a 0.14 mbd increase only. During November 2001 world oil production increased by 0.29 mbd compared to the previous month. OPEC oil production decreased whereas non-OPEC oil production increased by a total of 0.63 mbd. Total industry oil stocks in the OECD area grew by 0.22 mbd in October 2001. According to the IEA, winter fuels in primary storage continue to remain at comfortable levels. Source: INTERTANKO

Crude Tanker Shipping Market to Get Hurt in 2018

Graph:  Drewry Shipping Consultants Limited

Crude tanker freight rates are expected to decline further in 2018 following a sharp decline in 2017, according to the latest edition of the Tanker Forecaster, published by global shipping consultancy Drewry. Although tonnage supply growth in the crude tanker market is expected to be low next year after surging in 2017, this will not be enough to push tonnage utilisation rates higher as demand growth is expected to be sluggish. A slowdown in global oil demand growth and a likely decline in China’s stocking activity will keep growth in the crude oil trade moderate next year.

Why Tankship Trade to U.S. is in LImbo

Increasingly lower oil demand in the U.S. prompts tankship operators to look towards the China market. According to a BIMCO review, the tanker market is doing full steam ahead – not in relation to demand, earnings or actual operating speed, but in relation to structural demand changes in the West. At the epicentre of this is the world’s most thirsty oil consumer: the U.S. Not to be missed by anyone, the U.S. oil demand recorded a 16-year low in 2012. In 2005, the U.S. consumed 20.8 million of barrels per day (m/bpd), in the same year the domestic oil production stood at 5.2 m/bpd. Today 18.6 m/bpd is consumed, 6.5 m/bpd is produced and imports of Canadian oil are the growth story. Coincidentally with a lower and lower oil demand in the U.S., the U.S.

Market Report: Oil Markets in for Bumpy Ride

As winter subsides and warmer weather arrives in the northern hemisphere, the traditional drop in global oil demand should be at hand. But given a number of outside factors, the balance of 2004 should be anything but business as usual. Oil demand is estimated to fall by 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) between the first and second quarters of 2004, much of which is projected to take place in OECD Pacific and the FSU. While demand will drop, it traditionally doesn't stay down for long, with the summer driving season creating a sharp spike upward in consumption, particularly in North America, which usually accounts for half of the estimated 2.0 mb/d growth in third quarter global demand. The lull between peak winter and summer demand poses a number of challenges.

Brent Oil Hits 26-month Low Under US$97

HFO: File image

Brent crude oil on Monday slumped to its lowest in over two years, below $97 per barrel as lacklustre economic data from China, the world's top energy consumer, cast a shadow over the outlook for oil demand at a time of abundant supply. * U.S. China's factory output grew at the weakest pace in nearly six years in August, while growth in other key sectors also cooled, raising fears the world's second-largest economy may be at risk of a sharp slowdown. October Brent, which was due to expire later on Monday, fell to as low as $96.21 a barrel, its weakest since July 2, 2012.

IEA: Oil Outlook Through 2011

According to the International Energy Agency’s July 2010 Oil Market Report, global oil demand through 2011 is projected to rise 1.6% or 1.3 mb/dyear‐on‐year to 87.8 mb/d, driven entirely by non-OECD country consumption, as OECD countries continue to see a gradual decline. This is a slight reduction from 2010’s 1.8 mb/d growth, fueled in part by an early, buoyant global recovery and stimulus funds. The report, released today, is filled with a number of caveats, particularly the current and future direction of the global economic recovery, which has waned in the early summer months. IEA bases its oil demand projection on the IMF’s April World Economic Outlook, with global GDP growth reaching +4.3% in 2011 from +4.1% in 2010 as recovery from the 2008/2009 recession continues apace.

Oil Demand Flat, Diesel Demand Up

According to the February 12, 2001 monthly IEA Oil Market report, the 12-month moving average for December 2000 of oil products demand for the nine largest markets indicates a 0.1% decline. The only products showing an increased demand are LPG/Naphtha, Jet/Kerosene and Diesel, of which diesel has the largest increase of 3.5%. In contrast the demand for gasoline is down by 0.8%. The increase in diesel demand is strongest in the U.S., Mexico, Korea, Germany and Italy.

Maritime Reporter Magazine Cover Apr 2018 - Offshore Energy Annual

Maritime Reporter and Engineering News’ first edition was published in New York City in 1883 and became our flagship publication in 1939. It is the world’s largest audited circulation magazine serving the global maritime industry, delivering more insightful editorial and news to more industry decision makers than any other source.

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