Shipping Pollution Will Skyrocket -Study
International freight volumes will grow fourfold by 2050 while the average length of haul will increase by 12 percent over that time, trends that will cause a spike in global carbon emissions unless corrective action is taken.
An Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) sector study presented at the International Transport Forum (ITF) forecasts that freight transport emissions will grow 286 per cent on average by the middle of the century as changing trade patterns ensure larger volumes of goods travel even longer distances. The sharp increase in emissions dwarfs the predicted 30 to 110 percent increase in surface passenger transport emissions.
Given the longer distances for freight movements, air is expected to be the fastest-growing mode, with a projected 482-percent increase from 2010 to 2050. Air is also projected to be the biggest polluting mode with a 411-percent increase in carbon tons emitted over that 40-year period, ITF said.
Another factor in the expected increase in pollution is the role of the domestic component of an international shipment, which is documented this year for the first time in an ITF annual report. An example of such a move would be a Hong Kong-originating shipment flown to Los Angeles and then trucked to Denver. The domestic portion of such a movement today accounts for only 10 percent of international freight traffic, but 30 percent of global CO2 emissions, according to the report.
The north Pacific route will grow twice as fast as the Atlantic, while the Indian Ocean corridor will see volumes quadruple over the period. "The foreseeable increase in global freight represents an unprecedented challenge for the world’s transport systems," said ITF secretary-general Jose Viegas.
