Dry bulk Trend is Weak
Even though the trend is negative, by about 10% in the last two weeks, the supramax average 6 TC routes still seems to be overpriced compared to what is being fixed on the spot market for short period and rounds, says Fearnley's weekly report.
This is certainly true in the Pacific/Indian Ocean, and it is the strong front haul number that are supporting the present index.
In general, Indo rounds are still in the low USD 5000’s, longer Pacific rounds command a premium, and in the Atlantic the average round is at about mid USD 10,000. Short period in the Pacific (Singapore delivery) is in the upper USD 7000 mark, and most longer period are being concluded on index linked structures, which is essentially a premium.
With an oversupply of tonnage, especially in the Atlantic, we have seen rates coming off. Mid-week it seems to be a stand-off between bid/ask. Owners are more positive for Q4 and refuse to fix any lower and rather wait. TA’s are fixing in the 5’s while good kamsarmaxes are fixing in region of USD 10-12k bss APS USG delivery (NO BB) with grains to Cont/Med.
In the East, we see some more activity assisted by fresh grain stems out of NoPac. Ships open south China achieve mid/high 5’s for trips direction India, switching from APS. The period market is still alive with high 7k done for short period and mid/low 7k done for 1 year.
Capesize market saw a weak start this week and has remained soft so far. C5 had a limited number of fixtures at a flat USD 5.15 on Monday. The same run improved marginally by a few cents on Tuesday. Wednesday had a fixture at USD 5.20 level in the morning but it is showing improvement. C17 has not been active as no fixtures reported.
Generally, owners are at USD 8.50 level and charterers at high USD 7.00. Fronthaul was quiet on Monday and saw a few fixtures at a touch more than USD 11.00 level on Tuesday. Papers were printed at USD 11,750 for Oct and USD 13k for Q4 on Tuesday. Both showed a bearish slide. However, the prospect of Capesize is still ambiguous rest of this week as owners are now showing resistance.
